The Miami Heat will be able to finish off the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night and claim the championship as the favorites at the sportsbooks in Game 5 of the best-of-seven NBA Finals.
To stop this from happening, two trends need to be halted. Miami needs to falter as a favorite of 6 or less points and they are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games in that role.
And the Thunder need to win as an underdog, something they have done only twice in their past 9 games in that situation (2-7 SU).
LeBron James scored 26 points in Game 4 on Tuesday as the Heat won 104-98 to increase their series lead to 3-1. Dwyane Wade added 25 points for the Heat, and Russell Westbrook had 43 points for the Thunder.
LeBron cramped badly at the end of Game 4 but still managed a go-ahead trey late. It's the first three-game losing skid for the Thunder in ages and they can force the series back home with a win.
View Oklahoma City vs Miami Odds and Stats.
Betting Line:
Bettors looking to side with the Heat in this one will find them as 3.5-point favorites at Sportsbook, while the total was sitting at 193 to open at Sportsbook.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Heat rated this week at No. 5 and the Thunder sitting at No. 2. It may or may not play a role in Odds Shark score prediction models that turned out a 106-104 result in favor of the Heat today.
How They Match Up:
In rebounding, the battle of the boards features Miami's No. 21-rated squad against Oklahoma City's No. 6-rated roster. When it comes to long-range shooting, Miami rates No. 20 in the league with 5.6 per game, while their foes tonight rank No. 12 with 7.2 per outing.
Defensively, the Thunder feature the league's No. 16-rated defense on the road, allowing 97.6 points per game. Miami, meanwhile, comes in at No. 9 in the league in scoring at home.
The Thunder were a 104-98 loser in their most recent outing on the road against the Heat. They failed to cover the 3-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (202) made winners of OVER bettors. The Thunder got a terrific 43-point performance from Russell Westbrook but Miami handed them a 104-98 defeat on Tuesday at AmericanAirlines Arena.
Oklahoma City Thunder Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Miami are 5-5
After playing Miami are 5-5
After a loss are 7-3
Miami Heat Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing Oklahoma City are 9-1
After playing Oklahoma City are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
A few Thunder at Heat trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games
Oklahoma City is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Oklahoma City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Next up:
Oklahoma City home to Miami, Sunday, June 24
Miami at Oklahoma City, Sunday, June 24
