Before the OVER/UNDER came out Sunday evening for the NFC Championship Game, we knew it had to be a big one.
Falcons-Packers. The NFL’s No. 1 and 3 scoring offenses. The OVER is a combined 27-8 in their games, for the love of Gamblor.
And so it was a big one – 58 at the Sportsbook SuperBook in Las Vegas and by Wednesday the early action had pushed it to as high as 61.5.
That’s not just the biggest spread of this NFL season. That’s the biggest spread we’ve ever seen in the NFL playoffs. Ever.
Here’s a look at the biggest ones we have on record:
As you can see from the chart, this NFC Championship Game total is record-smashing high. And that makes sense considering the Falcons are the biggest OVER team we’ve ever seen. The OVER was 14-2 in Atlanta games in the regular season and is now 15-2 after their 36-20 win over the Seahawks last week.
Prior to this season, there had been four teams that saw the OVER go 13-3 in the regular season, which were the 2010 Patriots, 2010 Cowboys, 2001 Colts and the 2000 Broncos.
The formula isn’t that difficult for the Falcons OVER trend this year. They are the No. 1 scoring offense and the No. 27 scoring defense in the NFL. Put those two numbers together and their games average 58.74 points per game this season.
If that has you thinking this total is too low at 61.5, keep in mind that Green Bay has the No. 3 scoring offense in the NFL (28.0 points per game) and the OVER/UNDER went 12-6 in Packers games this season. Green Bay hasn’t been held to fewer than 30 points in any of its last six games.
Here are a few other items to consider:
- The OVER is 9-0 in Falcons home games this season.
- The OVER is 7-2 in Packers road games this season.
- The OVER is 6-2 in the eight highest playoff totals ever.
- The Packers ranked second-worst against the pass this season in the NFL. The secondary is banged up including strong safety Morgan Burnett, who left last week’s game after the first defensive series.
- The Falcons rank 27th against the pass this season.
I think this total is set high for some very good reasons. If you like the UNDER, though, here’s one number you may like: Since 2002, the OVER/UNDER is 12-13 in the playoffs in games featuring No. 1 scoring offenses.
For more info on this game, follow me on Twitter @JonnyOddsshark
