The Boston Celtics are coming off a loss on home court to the last-place Phoenix Suns and now turn their attention to the Milwaukee Bucks, one of three teams in the NBA with fewer than 10 losses. Boston opened as a 3-point favorite in this game but bettors have quickly brought that line down to -1 for the home team. The total is 224.5.
- Milwaukee is the highest-scoring team in the NBA at 117.8 points per game.
- Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Milwaukee.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee’s last 8 games.
Bucks’ Scoring and Shooting Are Both Down in December
Milwaukee is statistically the most prolific offensive team in the NBA this season, however, in their nine games this month their shooting percentage and scoring are both down. In fact, the Bucks’ 110.8 points per game this month is just 14th in the league while their December field-goal percentage is just 40.3 percent – well down from the 45 percent they shot in November.
Some of that can certainly be attributed to their strength of schedule lately – games against Golden State, Toronto, Indiana and Detroit (twice). Giannis Antetokounmpo is continuing his MVP-type season as he is routinely in the mid- to high-20s or better each night.
The Bucks could use a little more production from Khris Middleton, who has gotten over 10 points just three times this month while shooting 26.8 percent from beyond the arc. In games the Bucks win this year, Middleton is shooting 43 percent from three-point land but in losses, he’s just 29.9 percent.
Celtics Won The First Matchup on Their Outside Shooting
In the first meeting of the season between these Eastern Conference playoff teams, the Celtics won by four points as they attempted 55 three-pointers – and hit 24 of them (43.6 percent). That’s 20 more attempts than their season average. The reason? They can’t compete inside with Milwaukee.
The Bucks are allowing a league-low 40.4 points from the paint while Boston is 28th in the Association with 41.8 points per game in the paint. So the solution for Milwaukee seems simple – make Boston shooters miss from deep.
Boston is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league and is converting almost 38 percent of its three-point shots in December. The Bucks, for their part, haven’t been able to stop the three-point shot, as opponents are converting over 39 percent in December.
My Pick for Tonight
I’m picking the Bucks on the moneyline (or if the line flips, their spread) in this game. The 55 three-point attempts from Boston on November 1 is a season high, even for a team that takes a lot of three-pointers. When you look at an average basketball game, the number of attempts and converted three-pointers by the Celtics in that four-point game are both outliers.
Milwaukee plays a much more sustainable game and has the No. 3 road offense in addition to its overall league-leading scoring average.
The Celtics have been forcing a lot of shots in their past two games, both losses, and they will be forced into bad two-point shots again by the defensively strong Bucks.
