SEC Betting Preview Week 2: Openers Bring Encouraging Early Signs For Georgia, Vanderbilt

While they exist on the far opposite ends of the SEC food chain, Georgia and Vanderbilt both paid off for sports bettors during the opening weekend of the college football season.

The Bulldogs left no doubt in a 34-3 pummeling of Clemson in Atlanta, easily covering as 13.5-point favorites and handing the once-great Tigers their worst loss in over a decade. And then there was the real shocker of Week 1, when 13.5-point home underdog Vanderbilt knocked off Virginia Tech in overtime in the Tennessee Titans’ stadium in Nashville, Tenn.

Sure, Clemson has some issues—they eschew transfers, their quarterback play remains inconsistent, their talent level at the skill positions isn’t what it once was. But the outcome remains encouraging for Georgia bettors, given how the Bulldogs underperformed against the spread a season ago (4-7 against FBS opponents). Georgia started its 2023 campaign 1-5-1 ATS, showing a frustrating tendency to play up or down to competition.

But Saturday, against a Clemson team that was a double digit underdog for the first time since 2012, the ATS outcome was effectively academic by the end of the third quarter. Now, can Georgia keep this up? After a breather this week against FCS Tennessee Tech, the Bulldogs have back-to-back road games at Kentucky and Alabama. Georgia is an early 3.5-point favorite in Tuscaloosa, where the Bulldogs haven’t played since a 41-24 loss in 2020.

Meanwhile there’s Vanderbilt, which went 2-9 ATS against FBS foes in 2023, dropping its first seven games of that season against the number. But against a Virginia Tech team that some considered a dark horse to win the ACC and make the CFP, the Commodores jumped out to a 17-0 lead and hung on behind transfer quarterback Diego Pavia from New Mexico State, who tossed two TD passes and ran in for the winning score in the extra period.

Does this make Vandy a viable ATS option going forward The schedule is brutal, with Missouri, Alabama, Texas, LSU and Tennessee all to come. Pavia, though, is legit, having thrown for 2,900 yards and 26 TDs last season in Las Cruces. Former NMSU offensive coordinator Tim Beck followed him to Nashville. The Commodores lost every SEC game by double-digits last year; but now, covering against middle-of-the-road SEC opponents suddenly seems like a possibility.

New guys off to strong starts

Well done, Texas and Oklahoma. The SEC’s two newcomers both faced huge point spreads in Week 1, and covered them with ease.

The Longhorns breezed past 32-point underdog Colorado State 52-0, while the Sooners handled 43-point underdog Temple 51-3. Texas looked like a different team than the one that failed to cover similarly large spreads last season against Rice and Wyoming, while Oklahoma continued a recent trend of just dominating at home against big numbers. The Sooners in last year’s opener were favored by 36.5 against Arkansas State, and won by a cool 73.

Expect more of the same for Oklahoma this week against 29-point underdog Houston, which lost its opener at home 27-7 to 3.5-point underdog UNLV. Once a staple in the AP Top 25, the Cougars bottomed out to 4-8 last season in their maiden campaign in the Big 12, though they did cover in a home loss to 23.5-point favorite Texas. Houston has now lost four of its last six ATS dating back to last season.

Texas, meanwhile, ventures to Ann Arbor in Week 2 to play reigning national champion Michigan—although without former coach Jim Harbaugh, quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back Blake Corum, and many of the other top players who powered that run to the title. The Wolverines failed to cover in their home opener (barely, winning 30-10 as 21-point favorites) and are 7-point underdogs to the Longhorns in the Big House.

Issues for Tigers and Gators

LSU was the most consistent play in the SEC last season, going 8-3 ATS against FBS opponents and going OVER the total 10 times during that span. But that momentum was seriously dented in the Tigers’ neutral-field opener against USC in Las Vegas, where they lost outright as a 4.5-point favorite and scored just 20 points to fall well UNDER the total of 64.

It was painfully obvious that Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Johnson Jr. are no longer on the LSU roster, as the Tigers’ offense under new QB Garrett Nussmeier showed little of the spark that fueled this team a year ago. Even more concerning were the lapses in the secondary, bringing back bad memories of the porous defense the Tigers fielded in 2022. Thankfully, LSU has some time to work things out—the schedule is fairly soft until Ole Miss and Alabama come to Baton Rouge at midseason.

And then there’s Florida, which was embarrassed in a 41-17 loss to the Miami Hurricanes as a 3-point home underdog. It was the sixth straight outright loss for the Gators, who have lost five times ATS over that same span. Lackluster crowd support, coach Billy Napier on the hottest seat in the nation, losses compounding toward a critical mass—none of that instills confidence from a sports betting standpoint.

Player Prop Watch

SEC players to watch for potential prop bets in Week 2, should they be made available:

SEC Betting 3-Pack Week 2

Oklahoma -29 Houston

Yes, it was Temple. But the Sooners under Brent Venable have an excellent track record of covering big numbers at home against outmanned opponents. And that’s what Houston is now, after a lopsided home loss to UNLV in which the Cougars rotated three different quarterbacks and struggled to find any consistency on offense. Expect the Houston defense to be on the field a lot, and Willie Fritz to begin second-guessing whether he should have left Tulane.

Alabama -31 USF

The Kalen DeBoer era got off to a smashing start last season with a 63-0 blasting of Western Kentucky. Last year’s game at USF was the most mystifying of Nick Saban’s final season—he benched starting QB Jalen Milroe, and the Tide squeaked by 17-3 behind a pair of backups. There will be no more of that this time around, not in Tuscaloosa with Milroe firmly in command. USF surprised with a 7-6 record in 2023 and has a good quarterback in Byrum Brown, but the Bulls haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record since 2018.

South Carolina at Kentucky UNDER 45

The Gamecocks looked stagnant on offense in their opener against Old Dominion, managing just 288 total yards and needing to rally late to squeeze out a 23-19 victory. New quarterback LaNorris Sellers averaged just 11 yards per completion as South Carolina fell well UNDER the total of 53.5. Dating back to last season, the Gamecocks have now gone UNDER in four straight and six of seven. Now it’s on to Kentucky, which grinds out victories behind defense and the run game. Take the OVER at your peril.