NFL's Thanksgiving slate is finally here. Week 13 Thursday Night Football features the perfect mishmash of turkey and football, as the gridiron hosts three exciting games.
First off, we've got the Bears vs Lions at 12:30 p.m. ET, where Detroit is a 10-point favorite at BetMGM, with 84% of the handle money on the Pride to cover.
After that, the Giants face the Cowboys at 4:30 p.m. ET. Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite at home, where 88% of the handle has 'Dem Boys covering, while 90% of the handle is on Dallas ML (-185).
In the 8:20 p.m. slot, the Dolphins head to Lambeau Field to face the Packers, who are 3.5-point favorites but command just 51% of the handle at BetMGM. More on that later.
Below, I'll highlight where the betting action is for each game in this Thanksgiving TNF lineup, and find out what we can learn from the handle:
Bears vs Lions Betting Handle
Bears vs Lions, Nov. 28th, 12:30 pm ET
| Team | Spread | % Bets | % Handle | Total | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | +10.0 | 22% | 16% | O47.5 | 65% | 54% |
| Detroit Lions | -10.0 | 78% | 84% | U47.5 | 35% | 46% |
Betting Handle per BetMGM
Dan Campbell has yet to win a Thanksgiving game for Detroit, but bettors anticipate the Lions to break that curse Thursday. There's comically little love for the Bears, per BetMGM's data, even at a sizable spread.
Sharps and casual bettors alike are on the Lions, who command 78% of tickets and 84% of the money to cover the spread. The same trend follows for Lions ML bettors, who make up 79% of the handle, even at -500 odds.
I initially recommended betting Chicago to cover at +10.5, but I'm less bullish on Caleb Williams and company since the line has shifted to +10.
Five Most Bet Bears vs Lions Player Props
- Caleb Williams over 33.5 passing attempts (-130)
- Jahmyr Gibbs over 17.5 longest rush (-115)
- Jameson Williams over 48.5 receiving yards (-130)
- Caleb Williams over 30.5 rushing yards (-120)
- Caleb Williams over 226.5 passing yards (-130)
I love the Williams action we're seeing at BetMGM ahead of this divisional contest, especially Williams' OVER passing yards.
After some rough outings, rookie Williams has found his groove, hitting over 226.5 passing yards in two straight games with passer ratings of 95 and 103.1. He’ll need 30+ attempts — another good prop bet — to hit the OVER on Thanksgiving, and I’m betting the Bears give him that shot.
With Matt Eberflus coaching for his job, taking big swings against the 10-1 Lions might be his only way to stay off the hot seat.
Five most Bet Bears vs Lions Players for Anytime TD
- Jahmyr Gibbs -190
- Amon-Ra St. Brown -115
- Sam LaPorta +240
- David Montgomery -200
- Jameson Williams +190
Five Most Bet Bears vs Lions Players For First TD
- David Montgomery +360
- Jahmyr Gibbs +360
- Amon-Ra St. Brown +600
- Sam LaPorta +1200
- Jameson Williams +1000
I get the heeby jeebies from laying -200 on an anytime touchdown, so while I think Detroit's run game will feast, I have a hard time agreeing with the public on its touchdown props. Gun to my head, I'll take Gibbs over Montgomery, as Jahmyr will likely take on a heavier workload with Montgomery nursing a shoulder injury.
I much prefer the first touchdown market, and I love what the public is putting down at BetMGM. I'll consider tailing these top bets and sprinkling some cash on both Gibbs and Montgomery to score the first TD. Tough to predict a likelier outcome than that.
Giants vs Cowboys Betting Handle
Giants vs Cowboys, Nov. 28th, 4:30 pm ET
| Team | Spread | % Bets | % Handle | Total | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | +3.5 | 17% | 12% | O37.5 | 72% | 61% |
| Dallas Cowboys | -3.5 | 83% | 88% | U37.5 | 28% | 39% |
Betting Handle per BetMGM
The public loves 'Dem Boys, laying 88% of the handle on Dallas to cover at -3.5. I am much more bullish on the Cowboys ML, which comprises 59% of the tickets and 90% of the handle. Glad the big bettors agree with me on that one.
Our NFL expert Mitch Bannon makes a strong case for Dallas to cover, citing the fact that the Giants, struggling under Tommy DeVito, have failed to cover the spread in his last three starts. Read more on his picks here.
Five Most Bet Giants vs Cowboys Player Props
- Malik Nabers over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
- CeeDee Lamb over 68.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Theo Johnson under 2.5 receptions (-110)
- CeeDee Lamb over 6.5 receptions (-120)
- Cooper Rush over 213.5 passing yards (-115)
Folks are counting on Malik Nabers getting the rock after his post-game rant to the media, where he complained about a lack of touches. It would be wise for NYG to put the ball in his hands, but I'm much more confident in Lamb's props, which BetMGM bettors seem to agree with.
Five most Bet Giants vs Cowboys Players for Anytime TD
- CeeDee Lamb +180
- Malik Nabers +240
- DAL Defense/Special Teams +500
- KaVontae Turpin +750
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. +130
Five Most Bet Giants vs Cowboys Players For First TD
- Malik Nabers +1000
- CeeDee Lamb +650
- Rico Dowdle +450
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. +625
- DAL Defense/Special Teams +2500
Dolphins vs Packers Betting Handle
Dolphins vs Packers, Nov. 28th, 8:20 pm ET
| Team | Spread | % Bets | % Handle | Total | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | +3.5 | 30% | 49% | O47.5 | 43% | 38% |
| Green Bay Packers | -3.5 | 70% | 51% | U47.5 | 57% | 62% |
Betting Handle per BetMGM
We've got some good insight here with our Dolphins vs Packers handles. For the first time all day, we can infer there is sharp money on the Fins to cover +3.5, as that bet comprises just 30% of the ticket percentage but 49% of the handle. Big money is coming in on Miami to keep it close within the frosty confines of Lambeau Field.
Five Most Bet Dolphins vs Packers Player Props
- Jonnu Smith over 45.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Josh Jacobs over 72.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Josh Jacobs over 17.5 rushing attempts (+100)
- Tua Tagovailoa over 22.5 pass completions (-120)
- Brandon McManus over 1.5 made field goals (-105)
Everyone and their mother is on Jonnu Smith's OVER receiving yards for Thanksgiving, and I am, too. Smith has hit the OVER on 44.5 receiving yards in four straight games and six of his last seven, emerging as a key weapon in Miami’s offense. With the Packers ranking 30th against tight ends, he’s set up for another big day in this Thanksgiving matchup.
Five most Bet Dolphins vs Packers Players for Anytime TD
- De’Von Achane -130
- Josh Jacobs -185
- Tyreek Hill +145
- Jonnu Smith +200
- Tucker Kraft +200
Five Most Bet Dolphins vs Packers Players For First TD
- Josh Jacobs +400
- De’Von Achane +600
- Jonnu Smith +1500
- Tyreek Hill +900
- Tucker Kraft +1100
I understand the allure of a Jacobs anytime TD bet, even if I'd only bet it as part of a parlay. Jacobs has scored in four of his last five games, including a three-touchdown performance in Week 12, and he thrives in Green Bay's run-heavy offense. With cold weather favoring the ground game and Miami allowing nearly a rushing TD per game, he’s a strong pick for an anytime touchdown on Thanksgiving.
