With the NHL Playoffs underway, here's a glance at the Conn Smythe contenders.
After managing two tough opponents in the opening rounds of the postseason, Jake Oettinger has officially taken the top spot as the Conn Smythe favorite.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger (Dallas) | +700 |
| Igor Shesterkin (NY Rangers) | +750 |
| Aleksander Barkov (Florida) | +900 |
| Matthew Tkachuk (Florida) | +950 |
| Connor McDavid (Edmonton) | +1000 |
| Miro Heiskanen (Dallas) | +1000 |
| Wyatt Johnston (Dallas) | +1200 |
| Jason Robertson (Dallas) | +2000 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida) | +2000 |
| Carter Verhaeghe (Florida) | +2000 |
| Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) | +2200 |
| Artemi Panarin (NY Rangers) | +3000 |
| Jake Guentzel (Carolina) | +3000 |
| Mika Zibanejad (NY Rangers) | +3000 |
| Sebastian Aho (Carolina) | +3000 |
Odds as of May 14
2024 Conn smyth oddsboard recap
The second round is nearly wrapping up. Let's dissect what we have listed on the current oddsboard.
jake oettinger rises on top (+700)
Oettinger has circulated around this oddsboard since playoffs began but now, the 25-year-old has reached the peak. The kid hasn't been given an easy route, forced to face reigning Stanley Cup champs, Vegas, (with its LTIR players healthy) and now the offensively gifted Avalanche.
But, the former first-round pick has held down the fort, recording a noble .923SV% and 2.12GAA in 11 postseason meetings. However, it's been his last three outings that have surged his odds.
Oettinger has won three straight crucial meetings over Colorado, allowing just five goals in the span to post a .943SV%. Yeah, against the group that banked 28 goals in just five games against Winnipeg.
If he takes this series and continues to make strides, Oettinger is a shoo-in for the award.
igor shesterkin (+750)
I didn't pay much attention to Shesterkin when the playoffs began. Sweeping Washington, which shouldn't have even clinched a spot to begin with, didn't sweep me off my feet. I kind of just expected that to happen.
But, the 28-year-old came through with some crucial wins in the second round against Carolina but has let the series inch closer to barely lead 3-2. Four of five games were wins decided by one goal.
Notably, two performances in this series went into extra time. In Game 2, Shesterkin stayed composed through double overtime and made a total of 54 saves in the 4-3 win. Then, he stayed focused again for another 45-save night.
Now, that's much more impressive than handling the Capitals. If he can shut down the Canes once and for all, Shesterkin may sneak back on top.
Igor Shesterkin stood tall for almost an hour and a half! 🤯@NYRangers | #NYR | #StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/60bHyiUaKy
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) May 8, 2024
Connor McDavid (+1000)
If you believe Edmonton can win the Cup, then dip your hands into a value bet on McDavid.
With McDavid's 132 regular season points that feature an unfathomable 100 assists, his reputation for being the league's best player will always nudge him as a contender.
In the series opener against the Kings, McDavid recorded five assists and three shots on goal in the 7-4 win. The captain currently holds 17 points through eight postseason appearances so far.
The Battle of Canada has been a different beast for the Oilers. But, we saw a four-point night in a crucial Game 2 overtime win from the captain. More of that is necessary.
Connor McDavid reminding everyone that he’s Connor McDavid pic.twitter.com/E8ztvpRQIk
— Anna Dua (@AnnaNoelleDua) May 11, 2024
But again, Edmonton hasn't made it to the Stanley Cup final since 2006. McDavid hasn't even gotten a sniff at the Conn Smythe. Don't worry, he can hug his collection of Rocket Richard, Art Ross and Hart trophies to comfort him.
Conn Smythe Trophy Betting
If you think regular futures betting is tough, try selecting not only the winning team but the highest-performing player from that roster. It may seem as simple as selecting the team's best player, but the problem is that Stanley Cup-caliber squads have multiple best players.
| Year | Winner | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Jonathan Marchessault (RW) | Vegas Golden Knights |
| 2022 | Cale Makar (D) | Colorado Avalanche |
| 2021 | Andrei Vasilevskiy (G) | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 2020 | Victor Hedman (D) | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 2019 | Ryan O’Reilly (C) | St. Louis Blues |
| 2018 | Alexander Ovechkin (LW) | Washington Capitals |
| 2017 | Sidney Crosby (C) | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 2016 | Sidney Crosby (C) | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 2015 | Duncan Keith (D) | Chicago Blackhawks |
| 2014 | Justin Williams (RW) | Los Angeles Kings |
Colorado forwards Nathan Mackinnon and Mikko Rantanen can be the best players on the ice on any given night, and the same goes for Tampa Bay stars Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point. The problem is that they have teammates that are just as good. Even if you have a strong feeling about your Stanley Cup pick, stick to that market until the playoff narratives develop.
The area where you can truly find value in Conn Smythe betting is during the final round. Last year, Marchessault entered Game 4 as a -140 favorite to win the award. While he had just one assist that night, he moved to -500 to capture the award heading into Game 5.
A pre-Game 4 bet was essentially a bet on Vegas to win the series (which was -275), barring any other heroic performances, at a discount.
Conn Smythe: Little Love For Losers
A Stanley Cup Final loser has won the Conn Smythe only five times – and not since 2003 when Mighty Ducks of Anaheim netminder Jean-Sebastien Giguere won it by posting a stellar .945 SV% and 1.62 goals-against average with five shutouts in 21 games.
The five Final losers to win the Conn Smythe:
- 1966 - Roger Crozier (Detroit Red Wings)
- 1968 - Glenn Hall (St. Louis Blues)
- 1976 - Reggie Leach (Philadelphia Flyers)
- 1987 - Ron Hextall (Philadelphia Flyers)
- 2003 - Jean-Sebastien Giguere (Mighty Ducks of Anaheim)
