2024-25 NFL MVP Odds: Allen The Favorite, Goff Bounces Back

Okay NFL fans, let's dive into all the latest NFL MVP odds.

The race for the 2024-25 NFL MVP is currently led by Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen who scored the game-winning touchdown with his legs in a massive game against the Chiefs last week.

Lamar Jackson fell to second place this week and Jared Goff bounced back from his horrific Week 10 outing with a great game in Week 11 that helped him go from +4000 to +800. 

2024-25 NFL MVP Odds

Odds as of November 20, from FanDuel

Patrick Mahomes hasn't played great football this year, but he's still hanging around at +1200 thanks to Kansas City's 9-1 start. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been flying up the board (+2500) thanks to the Chargers' four-game winning streak.

NFL MVP Pick: Josh Allen (+125)

Last week we recommended Josh Allen when he was +360 and now he's the leader in the clubhouse at +125 so obviously you're not getting the best of the number here. However, Allen is still our pick even at this reduced rate after Lamar Jackson's mediocre Week 11 (16-for-33 for 207 yards).

According to BetMGM's data, more money has been wagered on Josh Allen (11.5%) than any other player to win NFL MVP. Jared Goff has the highest % of MVP tickets (9.1%) written. 

Allen has combined to rush and throw for 23 touchdowns with just five interceptions on the season. He's led the Bills to a 9-2 record which separates him from someone like Joe Burrow who has 28 total touchdowns and five interceptions on a 4-7 team. 

Should the Bills continue to dominate the AFC, Allen should be the league MVP.

See Our Best NFL Betting Sites Here

Value MVP Pick: Joe Burrow (+4500)

Joe Burrow is putting up absurd numbers this season, but nobody is talking about him for league MVP because the Bengals continue to struggle. But what if Cincinnati manages to find its way to the playoffs, does Burrow have an outside shot to be MVP?

Based just off the numbers, yes. Burrow leads the league in yards (3,028), passing touchdowns (27), and QBR (76.1). In his last two games he's tossed seven touchdowns (zero interceptions) for 784 yards. If he keeps up those kind of numbers and the Bengals find a way to win, he could force himself into the MVP conversation.

Last week, Burrow's odds were +3000 and the drop to +4500 was because of the Bengals loss, but he's still putting up crazy numbers. 

NFL MVP Winner History

NFL MVP Odds Betting Strategy & Trends

Keep in mind, Lamar Jackson was +1400 to take home the award at this time last year. Going further back, Mahomes was +800 in 2022, followed by Aaron Rodgers at +800 in 2021, and Rodgers at +3000 in 2020. The electric Jackson was +4000 prior to his spectacular 2019 breakout season. Before that, Mahomes the magician was a longshot before his own breakout season at +3525. All of this to say, there is value on the NFL MVP futures board if you look further down the odds.

All you have to do is determine which quarterback you think will break out in 2024. No other position has taken home the MVP trophy since Adrian Peterson's spectacular 2,000-yard campaign in 2012. The odds of a non-quarterback winning the award are so long that San Francisco 49ers standout Christian McCaffrey currently sits 19th on the odds board at +5000. Having said that, McCaffrey put up over 2,000 total yards and scored 21 touchdowns in 2023 and finished third in MVP voting.

So when it comes to betting on NFL MVP handicapping, we’ll stick to quarterbacks only for now, and perhaps switch gears during the season if a non-QB really starts to separate. Historically, the two largest factors that determine the NFL MVP are touchdowns and team wins.

Since 2010, Matt Ryan is the only player to win MVP on a team that had fewer than 12 wins. Thus, we're searching for a quarterback that has a chance to lead this team to a high number of wins, while contributing a high number of touchdowns in those victories.

With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. As we get closer to the Super Bowl, the lines will move. Sportsbooks update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.

Teams With the most NFL MVPs

The Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have never produced an NFL MVP.