I went one-for-two on my MLB total base props last night (and my winner was a +130 pick of Pete Alonso!), so I'm calling that a win. I'm cooking up a few more MLB prop picks today, looking at one back and one fade for the total bases.
Check out my two MLB total base prop picks for May 7th:
Pick 1: Whit Merrifield Over 0.5 Total Bases (-170)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
Whit Merrifield was, frankly, trash to start the season. But, over the last few weeks, he's pulled his year out of the garbage. The Phillies utility man has a seven-game hit streak, pulling his OPS up from .274 (woof) to .707 in that time.
I'm backing Merrifield to keep his hot stretch alive with a soft matchup against Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios today. Berrios has been great this season, but he's also been a bit more hittable lately. He's allowed eight hits across his last two outings and has struck out just four total batters in that time, too.
Merrifield owns a .354 career average against Berrios too, posting a .935 OPS against the righty in 48 career at-bats. Using batter-vs-pitcher stats can be sketchy sometimes, but that's a real sample size. I also never pass up the opportunity to bet on a revenge game, and this is Merrifield against his old team in Toronto!
Pick 2: Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 Total Bases (+145)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:40 pm ET
For starters, I'm fading the Brewers' bats in general tonight because Seth Lugo is on quite the hot streak. The Royals righty has allowed five total hits across his last two starts (14 innings), striking out 17 batters in that time. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his starts this year, good for a 1.60 ERA on the season.
Importantly, though, Hoskins struggles more than most against Lugo. The Brewers slugger owns a .136 batting average against Lugo in 22 career at-bats, striking out 12 times to just one walk. He clearly doesn't see the ball very well, as his career OPS against the Royals righty is just .492.
It doesn't hurt that Hoskins has just one hit in his last four games, either.
