Like a Phoenix rising from the ashes, the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets have clawed their way back into their best-of-seven series with the Minnesota Timberwolves, and we've got a same-game parlay for the all-important Game 5 on Tuesday with the two sides locked at 2-2.
Here's a look at our SGP and why each leg/prop warrants your attention.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Game 5 Same-Game Parlay
Matchup Page: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets, 10:30 p.m. ET
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic UNDER 50.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists | -118 |
| Mike Conley OVER 6.5 Assists | +104 |
| Michael Porter Jr. OVER 15.5 Points | -115 |
| Overall | +477 |
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Nikola Jokic UNDER 50.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
It's been close, but no cigar in the PRA department in recent outings, despite the newly-crowned Most Valuable Player continuously putting up absurd box scores for Denver. A prop of 50.5 for combined points, rebounds, and assists seems doable for Nikola Jokic considering his averages, yet he's actually gone UNDER in each game against the Timberwolves, doing so by the slimmest of margins on multiple occasions.
Jokic had a combined PRA of 49 in Game 1 and then again on Sunday in Game 4 when he registered a 35-7-7 line in the Nuggets' 115-107 victory at the Target Center. He did nail the OVER in Games 2, 4, and 5 in the opening round against the Los Angeles Lakers, but hasn't done so since.
There hasn't been a triple-double coming from Jokic in this series either after notching a pair against the Lakers, which impacts his ability to nail these PRAs. Denver hasn't needed that level of production with the statistical milestone to pick up two wins on the road, mind you, nor may it need that to conquer the Timberwolves and ultimately win this series.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Mike Conley OVER 6.5 assists
Catastrophe avoided in Game 4 when Mike Conley landed awkwardly on his shoulder, with the veteran finishing the matchup with his second-most assists of the playoffs with nine across 34 minutes of action.
With the line for dimes set at 6.5, Conley has gone OVER in two of Minnesota's four games against the Nuggets, and three of the four prior meetings in what was a sweep of the Suns. Conley had six assists the two instances in which he went UNDER versus Denver, so he wasn't too far off from perfection this round.
Backup Nickeil Alexander-Walker is the bigger threat defensively, but Conley has been far more efficient with his offense, and that's going to keep him on the hardwood for significant minutes over what could be a full seven games against the champs.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Michael Porter Jr. OVER 15.5 Points
In both the regular and postseason, there have been 16 instances in which Michael Porter Jr. finished a game with nine or fewer points. After doing so, he would go on to score 20 or more points the very next game on eight occasions, including in Game 4 against the Timberwolves when he dropped 21 points after finishing with nine four days prior.
Porter Jr. had his second-lowest scoring night of the 2023-24 campaign on Sunday with only four points on four shot attempts across 34 minutes. The Nuggets still prevailed, so there's room to grow for the sharpshooting forward to be more of a contributor in Game 5.
If the patterns are to be believed, Porter Jr. will hit the OVER with 16 or more points on Tuesday since he hasn't strung together consecutive OVERs or UNDERs versus Minnesota thus far.
