I'm kicking off my week with some MLB expert pick winners, so why don't you join me.
I'm focusing on the pitching matchups in this one, with selections on the Padres and Mariners. Check out my MLB picks for May 6th:
MLB Expert Picks: May 6th, 2024
You can jump directly to today's picks here:
Pick 1: Padres (+102) vs Cubs
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:41 pm ET
The Padres have kinda owned the Cubs lately, winning four of the last six and 10 of the last 15 meetings. With the way Yu Darvish has pitched against these Cubs lately, I'd expect San Diego's hot streak to continue.
Current Cubs batters have a .208 batting average against Darvish in their lifetimes, posting a .566 OPS, too. Weirdly, the one Chicago hitter who's had success against Darvish is C Yan Gomes, who owns a .455 average and 1.182 OPS in his career against the Padres righty. If Gomes is on the lineup, it might be worth a sprinkle on his hits over.
Justin Steele is starting for the Cubs in this one, making just his second outing of the 2024 MLB season. He's been hurt for over a month and made just one Triple-A rehab appearance, allowing six hits and three runs across 3.1 frames of work. That's not enough to give me confidence he'll be back firing in this one.
Maybe this is over-thinking things, but one reason I'm a bit concerned about this pick is the fact that the Cubs have won five of their last six series-opening games. I'm hoping that's pure coincidence and the pitching edge remains for San Diego here.
Pick 2: Mariners (-126) vs Twins
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:41 pm ET
Luis Castillo vs an uproven rookie? Easiest bet of my life.
Castillo has been great his last four outings, too, not allowing more than two earned runs in any of those contests. He's rocking a 31:4 strikeout to walk ratio in that time, too.
However, it looks like the sportsbooks are giving Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson just as much credit as Castillo in this one, given how close the odds are. The Minnesota youngster has made three starts this year, posting a 2.45 ERA. But I think we're getting a false sense of his talents, due to the fact that his last two outings have come against the White Sox (and he still let up 14 total hits in those two outings against Chicago). SWR has to face a real team tonight for just the second time in his MLB career.
I'd be all over Woods Richardson's strikeout under (4.5 at +120) for this one and taking the Mariners outright. He struck out just two against the White Sox last time out.
