YRFI/NRFI picks (Yes/No Run First Inning) are my favorite MLB bets this season. Many trends hold strong in this format, making it a lucrative new market.
Here are my two Y/NRFI bets for Monday, May 6:
Pick 1: Angels vs Pirates: No Run First Inning (-125)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
After a hot and exciting start, the Pirates are on a skid, posting a 3-8 record in their last 11 contests. Pittsburgh's previously vibrant offense is now averaging just 3.60 runs per game, the fourth-lowest mark in baseball. As a result, the Bucs are now the second-best NRFI club in baseball (22-13).
Only two Pirates hitters have posted an above-average wRC+ in the last two weeks, leaving plenty of opportunity for prop UNDR fades on Ke'Bryan Hayes (-145 UNDER 1.5 total bases), for example.
Pirates starter Mitch Keller is 3-4 NRFI in games he starts this season, which isn't terribly reliable, but he's only half the equation. The Angels offense has been sloppy since Mike Trout's big injury. Our bet is basically dependent on Keller because Angels starter Tyler Anderson is 4-2 NRFI this year.
Believe in Keller's good first inning Monday, and let the paltry Pirates bats do the rest.
Pick 2: Padres vs Cubs: No Run First Inning (-140)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:40 pm ET
This bet is chalky, but I'm backing it as my lock of the day. The Padres are technically the second-best YRFI club in baseball with a 23-14 record, but I see a glorious fade opportunity.
Yu Darvish is our ace in the hole Monday. He's 6-0 NRFI in games he starts this year, offering (hopefully) unbreakable proof of a zero in the first. On the other end, Justin Steele makes his second start of the year, carrying his 1-0 NRFI start into this contest.
Darvish is a vet who wastes no time to settle in. I've seen other young pitchers post great numbers this year but choke up in the first inning. There's no worry with that here.
