The second round of the NBA playoffs kicks off on Saturday night as the reigning champion Denver Nuggets play host to the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena, and we've got a same-game parlay to accentuate the action.
Here's a look at our SGP and why each leg/prop warrants your attention.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Game 1 Same-Game Parlay
Matchup Page: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets, 7 p.m. ET
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic OVER 28.5 Points | +100 |
| Mike Conley OVER 11.5 Points | -111 |
| Rudy Gobert UNDER 12.5 Rebounds | -140 |
| Overall | +449 |
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Nikola Jokic OVER 28.5 Points
On paper, throwing any combination of Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid should make life miserable for the great Nikola Jokic. No team remaining in the postseason has the frontcourt depth at their disposal quite like Minnesota does, and while it's the sexy pick to say the Timberwolves will keep the Most Valuable Player favorite at bay, as we saw during the regular season, Jokic has the formula to combat whatever the opposition has in store.
Jokic averaged 33.3 points against the Timberwolves across four games in 2023-24, and scored 32 or more points in three of those outings. That's a huge factor oddsmakers likely used to determine the 28.5-point prop total for Saturday, considering he went UNDER that number three of the five games in the opening round against the Los Angeles Lakers.
When Jokic drops 29 or more points to hit the OVER, Denver is 26-10 SU in both the regular and postseason combined, but just 16-18-2 against the spread with the average line being -5.7. The Nuggets are currently 4.5-point favorites over Minnesota for Game 1, for added context.
Jokic had only 13 points in Game 1 when battling the Timberwolves in the first round a year ago, but that was a blowout win from the opening tip. That won't be the case this time around with a far more focused, resilient, and defensively sound Minnesota squad to contend with, so Jokic will need to leave his mark offensively early and often.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Mike Conley OVER 11.5 Points
Going with a Mike Conley player prop is a risky play at the moment, since Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch will likely give a lot of run to backup guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker for defense to combat Jamal Murray. If we don't see that in Game 1, that could be the direction moving forward in the series if Murray gets hot or even if his calf starts acting up and he appears vulnerable.
Like we saw in the matchup with the Phoenix Suns, regular season success doesn't always translate to the playoffs, but for the veteran Conley, we really hope it does. The 36-year-old point guard had three games of 17 points or more against Denver, averaging 18 points in four meetings which was a full three points better than what he mustered up against any other team in the Association.
When Conley scores, it translates to winning basketball. Minnesota is 21-16 both SU and ATS when he reaches the OVER on 11.5 points, which includes the final two wins over the Suns. Finch's rotations may change things, but for now, ride with Conley after he bumped up both his minutes and shot attempts (third on the Timberwolves) in the sweep of Phoenix.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Rudy Gobert UNDER 12.5 Rebounds
With great risk comes great reward, just like the Conley leg. Rudy Gobert just finished second in the league in rebounds per game at 12.9, but we're still going to take the UNDER here against Denver.
Gobert did notch a pair of games against the Suns with double-digit boards, both of which would have nailed the OVER on 12.5, but that also means he recorded two games with nine or fewer. He actually finished with as many boards in Game 3 (14) as he did in Games 2 and 4 combined.
The Stifle Tower will be called upon as the primary defender to oppose Jokic, so that battle in the paint area should generate a ton of rebounding opportunities for a player who averaged 13 in three appearances against the Nuggets this season and 3.3 on the offensive glass alone. With that being said, though, Jokic will also be a presence in this department, and while Gobert did finish with 13 or more rebounds in 40 of his 76 games and then twice against Phoenix, he only did so once against Denver.
