Folks, I found my new favorite MLB bet: fading teams traveling after Sunday Night Baseball.
This is a betting trend that's been one of the most reliable and profitable in baseball over the last few years. And, crucially, it doesn't seem random, either.
Below I'll break down why we should be fading teams traveling after Sunday Night Baseball and the next opportunity to do so:
Fading Teams After Sunday Night Baseball
For a little context, I'm not just fading every team after they play in Sunday Night Baseball. I'm betting against teams that travel after the late game. So, the below trends are based on if you bet against every team that played in a new city following a Sunday Night Baseball appearance the next day, over the last three years:
| Market | Record | Unit Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Up | 68-61 | +17.41 |
| Runline | 68-61 | +7.25 |
17 units of profit over the last three seasons? Take it to the bank. Fading teams after they play in a new city following Sunday Night Baseball has been one of the best trends in recent years.
Why Teams Suck After Sunday Night Baseball?
Given how many units of profit this fade has been good for over the last few seasons, I'd be willing to blind bet it even if it didn't 'make sense'. But, this one actually has some narratives/theories that seem to back it up. Here are a few reasons I think teams traveling after SNB struggle, relative to the odds:
- Late Travel: This is the biggest reason I think the teams traveling after SNB aren't great the next game. Unlike all the other teams playing Sunday afternoon, these late-game teams will end ~10pm, meaning they're not getting on the plains until close to midnight, and in to the next city until the late hours of the morning.
And Sunday Night Baseball isn't any normal game — players are mic'd up and there are more media obligations after games. So, I'd bet it takes longer for teams to pack up and get out of town from a SNB game than any normal late-slate affair. So, that extra sleep is an advantage for the non-SNB team the next day that sportsbooks just don't account for. - Let-Down Game: The concept of a let-down game is well documented in the mind of sports bettors. And, the game after a contest full of pomp and fan fair like SNB should surely count as that. Players understand the significant of a Sunday Night Baseball game, and it's probably hard to get up for the Monday game the next day, after all that circus.
- Overhype: The teams that play in Sunday Night Baseball are usually the best/most entertaining according to networks and fans. So, these are also teams that have a tendency to be overhyped by the public. Fading the overhyped teams is always a good strategy, and Sunday Night Baseball often shows us exactly who those overhyped teams are.
2024 Post-SNB Fade Results
Here are this year's post-SNB fade spots that have already passed. The teams that played in Sunday Night Baseball and traveled after are bolded:
- Cardinals @ Padres (-118): Cards Won
- Padres @ Brewers (-111): Padres Won
- Mariners (-113) @ Rangers: Mariners Won ($)
- Cubs @ Mets (-145): Cubs Won
The post-SNB fade hasn't been great to start the 2024 season, hitting in 1 of the 4 matchups so far this season. The only win came by fading the Rangers after their Sunday Night Baseball contest in April, as they lost to the Mariners the next day.
But, given the strength of this trend over the last three years, I'd expect it to turn around. The good thing is there's a new opportunity for the post-SNB fade almost every week:
Next Fade Opportunity
- Fade Braves vs Cubs - May 13th
Our first opportunity to take advantage of this trend comes after the the Braves played in New York against the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball on May 12th. They've now traveled back to Atlanta to host the Cubs on May 13th. The Cubs are currently slated as +125 underdogs, despite having ace starter Shota Imanaga on the mound, too. This is the PERFECT post-SNB fade spot!
