MLB Betting Reports

If you love MLB betting but don't want to wait a full game, boy, do I have a wager for you: First Five Innings Betting, which is often referred to as F5 betting.

Below, we have F5 data from the 2024 season.

F5 Moneyline Records

F5 OVER/UNDER Records

Most Profitable F5 Pitchers

Least Profitable F5 Pitchers

How First Five Innings Betting Works

It’s quite simple — you’re basically just making a bet on what the result will be at the end of five innings as opposed to the full-game outcome. Just like regular full-game betting, there’s a moneyline and total option, along with a runline which is 0.5 runs instead of the regular full-game 1.5 runs. The value of an F5 moneyline bet generally isn’t as good as the full-game odds because there’s less risk involved but this can vary from game to game.

Why Bet First Five Innings Instead Of Full Game?

There are many different strategies when employing either betting option, but the decision often comes down to the starting pitching matchup and/or quality of the bullpens. If a team has a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup, a bettor might opt to bet the first five. If a team has a quality starter on the mound, but the bullpen can’t be trusted, this is another opportunity to consider a first five innings bet.

How These Tables Work

The data in these tables is based solely on results from the first five innings and profits are based on $100 bets. The moneyline profits are in the brackets beside each record. Keep in mind every single game needs to be analyzed differently. Just because a team has been a strong moneyline or OVER bet throughout the season doesn’t necessarily mean it’s worthy of a bet each day. Many factors should be considered when placing a bet and this data can be a great weapon to have in your betting tool belt. 

Below, we’ll break down MLB live-betting trends to know, including the best teams when scoring first and leading late, as well as the best comeback squads in baseball.

Here's the latest 2024 MLB live in-game betting data:

Data from the 2024 MLB season, so far. All profits are from pre-game outright lines, for a $100 unit size.

A cluster of Top Teams

The Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners are all atop the board for live bets while leading. I'd recommend keeping an eye on Washington this season. The Nats, like the A's, have overperformed in the early going, rewarding faithful sports bettors who capitalize on the sportsbooks' skepticism. Overperformers are our best friends, especially for live betting.

Best MLB Teams When Losing

When Losing

Data from the 2024 MLB season, so far. All profits are from pre-game outright lines, for $100 unit size.

Angels Folding Like House Of Cards

The Angels suck. The end. 

Los Angeles had a good run at the beginning of the season, but nowadays, when the club falls behind, there's no coming back. The Halos have by far the worst record in baseball when an opponent scores first. There's no resilience there, so don't even consider live-betting L.A. if it is charging back from a deficit. Give your money to charity instead. 

More Live MLB Betting Tips

Here are a few more general trends to keep in mind when making in-game baseball wagers:

Betting moneyline favorites in baseball isn’t always worth it, and we can’t always put faith in the underdogs, so taking the runline is a great way to get more bang for your buck. 

Here are a few highlights from the 2024 MLB runline data:

MLB Runline: Keep An Eye On Kansas City

The Royals are suddenly one of the most exciting clubs in baseball. Led by young superstar Bobby Witt Jr. (now nearly favored in the AL MVP odds race), Kansas City has surged to the top of the AL Central as legit underdog contenders. Salvador Perez is raking like 2021 again, and the Royals supporting cast, including dark-horse AL Cy Young candidate Cole Ragans are key, too.

Kansas City is still undervalued, and, as such, the club has generated a good deal of profit on the runline. 

Bad MLB bullpens are hard to watch. But we’re making them profitable. Below, we’ve broken down the best and worst bullpens in baseball and how you can capitalize on them to make some betting profit.

2024 MLB Worst Bullpen Betting Trends

Beyond the obviously terrible clubs (like the White Sox for example), the Rays have a surprisingly weak bullpen, leading to a big underperformance in their win-loss record. Pete Fairbanks, an otherwise top-tier closer, has fallen apart in 2024. Beyond that, Tampa's poor late-inning play opens the door to some spicy fades against the Rays. 

Check below for some tips on how to use this bullpen data to inform your bets, but one of the main things to note with these best bullpens is not to expect a comeback if you’re betting against them.

If you’re looking for more MLB betting resources, check out Odds Shark’s MLB Betting Hub as well as our MLB computer picks page.

How To Profit Off Bad Bullpens

The best way to profit off these shaky bullpens is by tracking games and keeping an eye out for live-betting situations.

If these bad late-game pitching squads have a one- or two-run lead heading into the final few frames, it’s worth sprinkling some cash on the opposition for a hefty underdog payout! All of the top baseball books have live-betting options, so sign up and watch out for a leaky bullpen getting the lead.

Bad Bullpen? Bet The OVER

Another way to capitalize on bad bullpens and shaky late-game pitching is by betting the OVER.

The Diamondbacks, who were the second-worst ’pen in baseball in 2021 per 7-9th inning ERA, hit the OVER at 57.4 percent that year, tops in the league. While OVER/UNDER betting in baseball often bakes in opponent offenses and starting pitching matchups, the late-game pitching is often forgotten. 

How To Bet On MLB Baseball

There are three main ways to bet on MLB, in the form of moneyline betting, runline betting or total runs. Moneyline betting is simple, where you just choose the winner of a game. Total runs betting is where you bet on whether the total runs scored in a game will go OVER or UNDER a preset total.

Like most spread bets, for an MLB runline you’re betting that the favorite (denoted by a minus sign) will win by a set number of runs (usually 1.5), or that the underdog (denoted by a plus) will win outright or lose by less than a set number of runs. At any sportsbook, you’ll notice MLB runline spread odds are listed like this:

In this example, the Blue Jays are 1.5-run favorites. If you believe that the Jays will win by more than 1.5 runs, you can bet on them to win. If you think the Twins will win, or lose by less than 1.5 runs, you should bet on them!

Check out our odds calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered, as well as the implied probability of all odds.

Below, we break down which parks have lent themselves to OVER/UNDER bettors this season, and how you can take advantage of the 2024 MLB stadium betting trends.

2024 OVER/UNDER Ballparks In Baseball

Best OVER Ballparks in 2024

Somehow, the lousy Marlins have hosted the most consistent OVERs in baseball. This pop certainly isn't coming from Miami's offense, so we can turn to their weak run prevention to tell the story. The Fish have allowed 111 earned runs (5.37 ERA) at home this season. Ew.

How To Bet On MLB OVER/UNDERs

There are three main ways to bet on MLB, in the form of moneyline betting, runline betting or total runs. To take advantage of this ballpark OVER/UNDER data, you’ll have to focus on that third option, run totals.

In an MLB run total bet, you’re betting on whether both teams will combine to score OVER or UNDER a set number of runs in a game. At the sportsbook, you’ll notice MLB OVER/UNDER odds are listed like this for a fictional Jays/Twins game:

In this example, if you believe that the Twins and Jays will combine to score OVER 8.5 runs (if the score is, for example, 5-4 Toronto), you would win $190.91 on a $100 bet – your initial $100 wager plus $90.91 in profit. Check out our odds calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered, as well as the implied probability of all odds.

If you’re looking for more MLB betting resources, check out Odds Shark’s MLB Betting Hub as well as our MLB computer picks page.

With Yes/No Runs First Inning bets, you get the same MLB betting drama, tension, and a nearly immediate result.

Below we have a complete breakdown of the Yes/No Run First inning betting trends, the best MLB teams for each side of the wager and a complete breakdown of what these YRFI/NRFI markets are:

Yes/No First Inning Runs Betting Trends

Rockies top YRFI Bet

Poor Colorado, always leading in the categories you're not supposed to. While the Rox stink on offense, averaging just 0.42 runs per game in the first inning, they get lit up on the pitching side, allowing 1.08 runs per game to opponents. I've found that these Y/NRFI trends hold true for most of the season. We've got a solid dataset here in Colorado, where the thin air leads to some smashing scores in the first inning of each game.

Mariners Great NRFI Squad

On the flip side, the Mariners are gloriously reliable for NRFI bets. Backed by a pitching staff loaded with aces such as Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby, Seattle's arms have stymied opposing hitters, molding the club into the best NRFI team in baseball. A weak first-inning offense (0.32 runs per game) makes this the perfect collaboration for NRFI bettors.

What Are YRFI/NRFI Bets?

YRFI/NRFI stands for 'Yes Run First Inning' or 'No Run First Inning'. Simply put, this is a betting market where you're predicting if there will or will not be at least one run scored in the first inning of a game. This run can come from either team, in the top or bottom half of the inning. It's just an OVER/UNDER 0.5 runs scored wager for the first inning of the game. Here's an example of what the market would look like at your MLB sportsbook:

Will There Be a 1st Inning Run In the Brewers vs Cardinals Game?

Many YRFI/NRFI odds are close to even money for both sides of the wager. In this case, a winning $100 bet on either side of the market would pay out $186.96, per our odds calculator. You just pick if you think the Brewers and/or the Cards will get to the starting pitchers early, and choose which side you're riding with.

Playing the totals is a good way to find value during the MLB season. So let’s look at the teams that are more likely to hit the OVER or UNDER at home or on the road and then look at the more profitable teams for each.

Here are the best MLB OVER/UNDER teams:

MLB Best Home and Away OVER/UNDER Teams

Takeaways From Best Home and Away OVER/UNDER Teams

There are a few significant takeaways from these tables.

The first is how frequently the top teams in MLB hit the OVER at home. Texas, Tampa Bay and Atlanta are all hitting home OVERs at top-five rates. These squads are taking advantage of visiting pitchers and smashing totals.

On the other hand, the Dodgers exploded on the road with a staggering 64.6% hit rate to the OVER in away games. If you're looking to attend a high-scoring contest, check to see when LA visits your city.

The Braves and Dodgers hold healthy leads over the field in World Series odds. These teams smoked the books on totals all year, earning their respect in the futures market.

MLB Best Home and Away OVER/UNDER Pitchers

Best Over Pitchers Home

Best Under Pitchers Home

Best Over Pitchers Away

Best Under Pitchers Away

A club’s success – or lack thereof – often comes down to how well the offense performs with runners in scoring position (RISP). Our RISP baseball leaderboard offers a unique insight for MLB bettors who love the chance to jump on a good rally and win money.

MLB RISP Leaders: Best Teams

All stats come via Fangraphs as of May 10.

It’s no surprise to see the Rangers, Phillies, and Braves atop MLB's most clutch teams. That said, there are a few surprises, notably the KC Royals up near the top of baseball's best RISP hitters.

Kansas City Royals (.861 OPS with RISP)

The Royals hitters are so clutch that it's almost comical. There are nine KC hitters with an OPS above .700 when runners are in scoring position, headlined by Sal Perez and his absurd .581 OBP and 1.439 OPS (!). This is utterly mental and in no way sustainable, but it's a marvel Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. (1.056 OPS RISP) have turned this franchise around in an instant.

Blue Jays (.566 OPS with RISP)

It's the same sad tune in Blue Jays land, where Toronto continues to flounder with runners in scoring position. Jays fans can feel this pain, as the club's top hitters consistently fail to drive people in. Bo Bichette's .819 RISP OPS is alright, but the likes of George Springer (.354 OPS) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.549 OPS) are dragging the group down. 

MLB RISP Leaders: Best Players (Minimum 20 PAs)

MLB RISP Leaders: Worst Players (Minimum 60 PAs)

What Does ‘Runners In Scoring Position’ Mean?

In baseball, whenever a runner reaches second base or beyond, he’s considered “in scoring position.” When a batter steps up to the plate with a runner on second base, third base or with the bases loaded, he is taking an at-bat with runners in scoring position (RISP). 

RISP opportunities are a club’s best chance to score runs during a game. Typically, the best teams and the best players capitalize in these situations. But that’s not always the case, and there are exceptions that can actually offer bettors sneaky live-betting value. 

Why Is Hitting With RISP Important For Handicapping/Live Betting? 

When there are runners on base with a chance to score, a sportsbook might move the odds a smidge in the hitting team’s favor. There are a variety of factors that influence live-betting odds – including how bad the opposing team’s bullpen is, for example – but a big inning with runners on the bases typically offers a great opportunity to hammer the odds on the hitting team or fade a club that is awful at hitting with RISP.

If you haven’t done so already, remember to check out our MLB futures, MLB win totals, odds to make the playoffs and more over at our MLB hub. If you’re new to betting on baseball, check out our How To Bet On Baseball page for some helpful tips and info.

Baseball sharps take note of which parks favor hitters or pitchers. There are betting advantages and disadvantages camouflaged within each venue's towering wall or short porch. 

Here's everything you need to know about the best and worst MLB ballparks for home runs.

All Park Factor sabermetrics come via Baseball Savant.

Homer Heaven: Best MLB Ballparks for Home Runs

If you love the value of a home run player prop, take note of the ballparks that can make or break your bet. 

Angel Stadium (119) - LAA

Angel Stadium numbers aren't shocking given its reputation as a consistently hitter-friendly ballpark. This year, on HRs specifically, Anaheim is seeing balls leave the yard 19% more often than the average park.

Oakland Coliseum (67) - OAK

There are many disasters plaguing this A's club at the moment, including record-breaking poor play, a relocation bid and attendance trouble, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention how dreadful the ballpark is. A behemoth concrete monstrosity, the Coliseum is built more for football than baseball, and that's bad news for home-run hitters.

The walls are very high (as tall as 14 feet in some spots) and the corners are each 330 feet from home plate. This building swallows homers and spits them back onto the field for lousy extra-base hits. I'd reconsider any home run prop bets at the ol' Oakland Coliseum.

Below, we've compiled a team and player MLB Day Games Betting Report to help your day baseball bets. All the data collected below is for 2023 day MLB games, which are characterized as games with a start time before 5 pm ET:

Best Day Game MLB Teams

The Nationals are surprisingly great under the day-game sun. Despite a .460 win rate overall, the Nats are over .500 during the day.

Even after trading a day-game hero like Jeimer Candelario at the trade deadline, the Nationals have kept up the afternoon success. It's coming on the back of some great performances by catcher Keibert Ruiz and infielder CJ Abrams. Both young bats are hitting .300 during the day with OPS over .830. Despite being more of a speed/contact guy, Abrams has seven homers in just 45 day games.

CJ Abrams makes it back-to-back homers and the boo birds are out in the Bronx pic.twitter.com/acJZYU4Shj

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 24, 2023

Worst Day Game MLB Teams

There aren't many big surprises with the worst day teams, as it's many of the league's worst teams overall. However, Oakland is somehow even worse in day games than usual. If the A's were to only play day games this season, they'd be on pace for under 30 wins. Woof. I certainly hope you haven't been betting on Oakland during the afternoon.

Best Day Game Hitters

Most of the top day-game hitters are just the best bats in baseball. So, let's go a little off the board to highlight a day-game hero.

But, one non-elite hitter that stands out here is Tigers 1B Spencer Torkelson. A former No. 1 draft pick, Tork has all the potential in the world at the plate, but the run production seems to be only showing up during the day. Check out his Day vs Night counting stats:

Tork During Day: 60 GP, 14 HR, 35 RBI
Night: 72 GP, 10 HR, 34 RBI

Best Day Game Starting Pitchers

Blake Snell's having a great season, rocking a 2.73 ERA overall. But, under the San Diego sun, he takes his game to a whole other level. Snell leads all of baseball with a 1.23 day ERA allowing just six earned runs across eight starts. It's bucking a career trend for him though, as Snell owns a lower career ERA during the night (3.17) compared to the day (3.51).

The MLB season is a grind. With 162 games and very few days off, those moments of rest can be huge for players and teams — and maybe for MLB bettors too.

Below, we'll break down which starting pitchers and hitters perform noticeably better with an extra day of rest:

Top Starting Pitchers On Extra Rest

For starters, four days of rest is considered normal between starts. So, extra rest in this case considers any start with at least five days off between outings. The attached betting profits are the moneyline profits (for $100 bets) on the pitchers' teams on starts where they have an additional day rest.

Rangers starters Dominate With Extra Rest

The Rangers may have lost regular Cy Young favorite Jacob deGrom to a season-ending injury. But, the rest of Texas' rotation has stepped up — particularly on extra rest.

Jordan Montgomery was elite with an extra day or two of rest, rocking an ERA in the under 2.00, ranking out as one of the best pitchers in baseball on five or more days of rest. Keep an eye on Montgomery in 2024.

Top Hitters On Extra Rest

For batters, extra rest is defined as a single off day. That could be an overall team off day or simply being out of the lineup the day before. If you come into a game as a pinch hitter, pinch runner, or defensive sub, that doesn't count as a day of rest.