Congrats, folks you made it through a full work week. Your reward? Some MLB expert picks for this loaded Friday slate.
All 30 MLB clubs are in action, so there's no shortage of games to handicap. Here are the two contests I've identified for my MLB expert picks:
MLB Expert Picks: May 3, 2024
You can jump directly to today's picks here:
Pick 1: Giants (+130) vs Phillies
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
All my picks keep coming up Giants these days. San Francisco scooped up an underdog win Thursday, and I'm happy to keep the train going. That said, Friday's matchup with the Phils isn't without its obstacles.
I love the hitter vs pitcher trends — more on that in a moment — but let's begin with the caution. San Fran has used its top relievers a lot lately. Camilo Doval threw yesterday and the Rogers brothers have worked a ton lately. Any of those three could be unavailable.
But the remaining pieces give me a good feeling. For example, Giants starter Jordan Hicks (1.69 ERA) has dominated current Phillies hitters, holding them to a 2-for-20 line with eight strikeouts. The right-hander makes for a good prop bet today, too. Given the Phillies' swing-and-miss propensity, Hicks is a lock for OVER 4.5 strikeouts at -150. I'd even consider an alt line up to 5.5.
Finally, certain Giants hitters have big success against Philly starter Aaron Nola. Lamonte Wade Jr. is 3-for-5 lifetime with a homer and three RBIs, while Mike Yastrzemski is 3-for-7 with a bomb and five RBIs. Both those guys have hittable total bases props, though I prefer Yaz on Friday at -110 on the OVER 0.5 total bases.
Pick 2: Orioles (-115) vs Reds
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:10 pm ET
I call this the Cole Irvin effect. Allow me to explain. On one side, we've got a legit club like the O's — near the top of the World Series odds backed by a nasty lineup. Yet the Reds, with +215 odds to make playoffs, cut this game to a near pick'em. It's the Cole Irvin effect.
Irvin isn't a reliable pitcher. He's a soft-throwing lefty with a track record for allowing massive homers. But he's in a groove right now, tossing 13.2 consecutive scoreless innings. The public is still sketched on him, hence the narrow -115 status for B-More. Still, though, I wouldn't be too worried.
Reds hitters are 6-for-16 (.375 BA) lifetime vs Irvin, but that's not a concern, as all those hits are singles. I love Irvin's UNDER 2.5 earned runs prop Friday at -105.
The O's also have a fresh pen, with Yennier Canno and Craig Kimbrel presumably available for a full workload.
