I'm trying something new this week, honing in on some MLB first five-inning bets.
The key here is pretty simple, we just need to pick the winning matchups for the first five innings of games. This allows me to really hone in on the starting pitching matchups and ignore those pesky bullpens. Because who really cares about relievers, anyway?
So, here are my first two F5 picks for April 30th:
Pick 1: Phillies > Angels - First 5 Innings (-150)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
The Phillies have been on a heater in general, winning four of their last five games. But, they've been a great five-inning team during that stretch, too.
The Phillies rank out as the sixth-best offense in the first five innings of games (2.93 runs per first five) and even better lately, scoring 4.33 F5 runs in their last three contests. With a guy like Spencer Turnbull on the mound, who's allowed just one earned run in his last two starts, the Phillies are the perfect F5 bet today.
Pick 2: Red Sox > Giants - First 5 Innings (+114)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
This bet is mostly a fade of the Giants, who have been the second-worst first five offense in MLB to start the season. The Giants are scoring just 1.72 runs per F5, better than only the White Sox. Boston, on the other hand, has been one of the best 10 offenses in the first five innings, scoring 2.72 runs per F5.
But, there is an issue with this bet, and his name is Logan Webb. The Giants starter hasn't allowed a run since April 13th, pitching 15 shutout frames over his last two starts. He's rocking a pristine 2.33 ERA on the season, too. But, I have some hope that the Red Sox can put some runs across against Webb as Boston beat the Giants starter last year and won 2-0 in the first five innings!
