This is a slim slate of Thursday games, so I'm honing in on the lone night contest for my MLB same-game parlay.
Tonight's late game is a battle between the Guardians and Astros, with two suspect pitchers on the mound. Here are my Guardians vs Astros same-game parlay legs:
Guardians vs Astros Same-Game Parlay: May 2nd
The Game: Guardians vs Astros - 8:10 p.m. ET
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Guardians Moneyline | +110 |
| Total Runs Over 8.5 | -150 |
| Josh Naylor Over 0.5 Hits | -300 |
| Overall | +273 |
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Guardians Moneyline
Really the key here is a fade of Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti. The 24-year-old has been pretty awful to start the 2024 season, posting a 10.97 ERA in his first three outings. He had one decent start (4IP, 2ER in a 1-6 loss to the Braves), but aside from that Arrighetti has allowed at least four runs in his other outings.
If Cleveland can get to the Houston starter for four runs, they're all but guaranteed to win. When the Guardians score at least four runs, they're 18-3 this season on the moneyline (+15 units profit) and 17-4 on the runline (+13 units).
If we needed anything else in our favor, the Astros have also used relievers Ryan Pressley and Rafael Montero on back-to-back days, making them likely unavailable for Thursday's contest, too.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Total Runs Over 8.5
I've already talked about how we're fading the 11 ERA of Spencer Arrighetti, but it's not like Cleveland pitcher Logan Allen is likely to carve, either. Allen has a 5.46 ERA on the season and the Astros have the ability to hit around lefties like him. Houston ranks eighth in team OPS against southpaws this season, hitting .267 with a .769 OPS as a team vs LHP.
I wouldn't have guessed this, but the Guardians have also been a great over team this year. The Guards are fourth in the league with a 57.1% hit rate on the over to start 2024.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Josh Naylor O 0.5 Hits
If there's anyone who's a sure thing to get a hit against Arrighetti, it's Josh Naylor. On the season, Naylor has historically mashed against RHP and is hitting .256 against righties this year.
Naylor does have has hits in just two of his last seven games, but I'm not that concerned. The Guardians are coming off games against strong pitching staffs in Atlanta and Boston. Before this recent stretch, Naylor had a 10-game hitting streak, and I expect him to get back to those hitting ways against a bad pitcher like Arrighetti.
