YRFI/NRFI picks (Yes/No Run First Inning) are my favorite MLB bets these days. And, just your luck, I've got a few winners for you today on this fine Thursday, May 2:
Pick 1: Rockies vs Marlins: No Run First Inning (-120)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 12:10 pm ET
I profiled this game in my Thursday MLB expert picks under the premise that we'll see a cleaner pitching matchup than anticipated. Edward Cabrera's been starched by some bad luck (3.41 xERA), but he's been a beauty in the first frame. Through three starts, the Marlins righty has yet to allow a first-inning run, part of why Miami has generated a 20-12 NRFI record, the second-best NRFI mark in MLB.
Now, the Rockies have a crazy propensity for first-inning runs (22-8 YRFI). That's scary, but it's worth the risk. As I laid out in my expert picks, Colorado's batting order houses just three above-average hitters vs righties. The Marlins aren't much better, repping a .620 OPS as a team, the fourth-worst mark in MLB.
Bet the NRFI for this contest.
Pick 2: Nationals vs Rangers: Yes Run First Inning (-115)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 2:35 pm ET
This Rangers-Nats game pits two clubs against each other who come from opposite ends of the spectrum. Washington (19-11 NRFI) is among the best NRFI clubs while Texas (18-13 YRFI) is hot on the YRFI.
So where is our differentiator? It comes from Mr. Mitchell Parker on the mound for Washington. The left-hander has been excellent (1.69 ERA) through his first three career starts, allowing only two runs in 16 innings. The catch? Those two runs came in the first inning.
Parker's 6.00 first-inning ERA intertwines with the Rangers' hot starts lately to create a perfect YRFI bet. Texas is 7-3 YRFI in its last 10 and reps a .737 OPS vs LHPs.
I'd keep an eye on Adolis Garcia as a guy to do some damage. Garcia to homer is available at +190.
