Patriots vs Chiefs Betting Odds and Pick - January 16, 2015

The march to another Super Bowl for the New England Patriots begins this Saturday when the Patriots welcome the Kansas City Chiefs to Gillette Stadium. The Patriots finished the regular season on a serious slide, especially by their standards, losing four of their last six games. It’s a much different story for the Chiefs, who after their shellacking of the Texans, have won 11 straight games.

Shark Bites

The Chiefs are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three divisional round games.
The total has gone OVER in the Patriots' last five divisional round games.
The road team has lost 12 of the last 16 divisional round games in the last four seasons.

The teams have also performed drastically different at the betting window, with the Patriots going 2-5-1 ATS in the second half, while Kansas City has gone a reliable 8-3 ATS during their 11 game win streak, including covers in five straight road games.

Make no mistake about it though, despite the lackluster end to the regular season, the Patriots are favorites—Sportsbook at -5. The Patriots haven’t responded well as a favorite in that range, as they’ve gone 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games when favored by 5.5 or less.

There certainly are some extenuating circumstances with the Patriots this season, however, as their receiving and running back corps were decimated by injuries. With two weeks to recoup, the defending Super Bowl champions should look like a much different team from the one that ended the regular season. The Patriots are a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four divisional round games. Also, if history is any indication, then the Patriots are a proverbial lock, as they’re 9-0 SU after consecutive losses.

Now among the upper echelon teams in the NFL, can the Chiefs continue their run? As impressive as the Chiefs’ 10 straight wins at the end of the regular season were, only two of those wins came against other playoff teams. Mediocre competition aside, there’s not much you can take away from KC as they ranked as the league’s fourth best offense in terms of yards per game, while their defense allowed the second least amount of yards per game. The Chiefs were ball hawks this season, leading the AFC in interceptions with 22, while only throwing seven picks on their end.

With the total set at 42.5 as of Tuesday morning, totals bettors will want to take a close look at the OVER, as 42.5 would be the lowest total entering a Patriots game since October 14, 2012. The lowest total for a Pats game this season was 43, which easily went OVER. In Patriots games with a total of 50 or less this season, the team went 7-3 O/U.

Sportsbook Odds & Computer Pick

The New England Patriots were listed as -5-point favorites at Sportsbook and other online Sportsbooks, with the total listed at one point at 44.5.

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas pick a 21-18 win for the Chiefs. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The New England Patriots sit at 12-4 (7-6-3 ATS) on the season; in comparison, the Kansas City Chiefs are currently 12-5 (9-8 ATS). Looking to bet on the totals? New England is 9-7 OU, and Kansas City is 8-8-1 OU. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Kansas City injuries news.

The New England Patriots sit at No. 7 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at Odds Shark, while the Kansas City Chiefs are at No. 2 on that chart.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits New England's No. 3-ranked offense, averaging 29.06 PPG, against a Chiefs defense that ranks No. 2 this week at 16.88 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 286.69 yards per game, more than the Chiefs secondary allows through the air, 224.12 YPG per game.

Defensively, the Kansas City Chiefs feature the league's No. 8-rated road run defense, allowing 95.11 yards per game. The New England Patriots, meanwhile, ranks No. 24 in rushing offense at home.