The Miami Dolphins went 3-1 straight-up and 2-2 against the spread last preseason, and there is a buzz in South Beach that this could be the year they finally end the six-year reign of the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots atop the AFC East.
The Dolphins were the last team to win the division back in 2008, and they have their best team since then. Times were good for Miami between 2008 and 2010, when the team won nine straight preseason games and had a 7-1-1 mark against the spread.
However, the Dolphins were one of the worst NFL teams in the preseason following that positive stretch, failing to cover eight of nine games between 2012 and 2013 en route to a poor 2-7 straight-up record. Miami’s fourth-year head coach Joe Philbin seems poised to break through after struggling mightily in his first two seasons with the team, as management has kept him around despite never posting a winning record.
The Dolphins are 3-10 versus the line in their past 13 preseason games, but two of the covers took place in their last three games in 2014, giving them some hope for the future.
With Tom Brady’s four-game suspension still intact for the Patriots heading into the preseason, Miami will be looking to build some positive momentum and get people talking about the team’s improved chances in 2015. The Dolphins are one of many teams to watch early on, along with the teams that have new head coaches for this season.
- Lions 22-6 SU and 19-8-1 ATS last 28 preseason games
- Saints 12-2 ATS as preseason underdogs since 2007
- Ravens 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS as preseason favorites since 2009
- Hall of Fame Game loser on 5-1 ATS run in next preseason game
- New Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak 19-11-2 ATS in preseason with Texans
- Chiefs 7-23 SU and 5-23-2 ATS last 30 preseason games
- Colts 7-23 SU last 30 preseason games
- Dolphins 3-10 ATS last 13 preseason games
- OVER 14-2 last 16 preseason games for NY Jets as underdogs
- OVER 11-2 last 13 preseason games for Eagles
- OVER 7-3 last 10 preseason games for Ravens
- UNDER 5-0 last 5 preseason games for Jaguars (OVER 8-1 previous 9)
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There is no such thing as a 'lock' or a 'sure bet,' despite what your neighborhood handicapper might tell you. But when it comes to NFL preseason betting, one wager has been almost a guarantee the past nine preseasons - betting on the Kansas City Chiefs to lose against the spread.
In their past 38 games, the Chiefs are a jaw-dropping (and bankroll-bleeding) 7-30-1 ATS. After losing their first two games last August to slip to 5-30-1 ATS, they had two disappointing victories to raise their record.
"You don't understand how that type of trend can happen, because it extends back to the years when the Chiefs were Super Bowl contenders, through their low seasons, and now that they are rebuilding," said Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com "But those are the numbers - right there in black and white."
2014 Preseason NFL Trends
Chiefs 7-30-1 ATS past 38 games
Steelers lost both home games in 2013, ending an 11-game home win streak
Tennessee 12-1 SU past 13 home games
OVER is 14-6 in Jets games in five preseasons under Rex Ryan
Carolina lost 11 of 13 road games SU (4-9 ATS)
Detroit 12-3 ATS past 15 games
Cincinnati 2-7 ATS past 9 preseason road games
Indianapolis 7-3 ATS past 10 games
OVER is 8-2 past 10 Jaguar games
Philly 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS past 10 games
San Francisco 7-2 ATS past 9 games
OVER is 9-2 past 11 Baltimore games
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The 2013 Hall of Fame Game pits Miami against Dallas, and 2013 sees plenty of one-sided trends that could be predictors this season. For example, the Steelers and Titans have been machines at home in the preseason (Pittsburgh winning 11 straight since 2007 and Tennessee winning 12 straight). Carolina has lost 10 of 11 preseason road games (3-8 ATS), and the Cardinals are riding a 1-7 ATS streak over two preseasons.
Among the teams that recently have been moneymakers for NFL preseason bettors are the Lions (9-2 ATS), Colts (5-1 ATS), Eagles (5-1 ATS), Saints (9-3 ATS), Seahawks (8-1 ATS), and Rams (11-3 ATS). What other NFL wagering angles have produced results in recent years? Are there other reasons to bet the NFL preseason? Check out the list below.
2013 Preseason NFL Trends
Cardinals 1-7 ATS past 8 preseason games
Bills 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS past 9 preseason games
Carolina 1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS past 11 preseason road games
Bengals 1-6 ATS past 7 preseason road games
Broncos 1-5 ATS past 6 preseason games as favorite
Lions 9-2 SU & ATS past 11 preseason games
Packers 17-4 SU past 21 preseason games
Colts 5-1 ATS past 6 preseason games
Colts OVER is 6-1 past 7 preseason road games
Jaguars played 6 straight preseason OVERs
Chiefs 5-28-1 ATS past 34 preseason games
Dolphins were 0-4 SU & ATS last preseason
Giants UNDER is 8-2 past 10 preseason games
Jets 0-5 SU & ATS past 5 preseason games
Patriots 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS past 6 preseason games
Saints 9-3 ATS past 12 preseason games
Raiders 2-8 SU & ATS past 10 preseason games
Eagles 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS past 6 preseason games
Steelers 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS past 7 preseason games
Steelers won 11 straight preseason home games since Aug. 11, 2007
Seahawks 8-1 ATS past 9 preseason games
Rams 11-3 SU & ATS past 14 preseason games
Bucs 9-2 ATS past 11 preseason road games
Titans won 12 straight preseason home games since Aug. 11 2007
