Early Super Bowl 59 odds are out, but there's going to be plenty of line movement throughout the NFL offseason.
Taking a look at the draft and free agency landscape this year, here are four teams to buy and sell on in Super Bowl odds, before the offseason changes the market:
Sell: Baltimore Ravens
As a Ravens fan, writing this is particularly painful. But this is going to be a hard offseason for Baltimore.
They had the best defense in football this season by metrics like points against, EPA, and DVOA, and it's going to be very hard to replicate that next year. Baltimore already lost Defensive Coordinator Mike McDonald to the Seahawks and key defenders like LB Patrick Queen, DL Justin Madubuike, EDGE Jadaveon Clowney, and S Geno Stone are all set for NFL free agency. The Ravens should be able to tag Madubuike, but Stone and Queen have almost certainly priced themselves out of the Ravens' financial plans.
It's official.
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) February 1, 2024
We've named Mike Macdonald as our head coach!
📰: https://t.co/VK006f3kaw pic.twitter.com/fkvpuDxppn
Add in some probable skill position losses on offense like Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholar, Gus Edwards, and J.K. Dobbins and that's a lot to replace on both sides of the ball.
The Ravens should still be 'good' next year, but with that many pending losses, they're almost certain to drop down from third in Super Bowl odds as the offseason plays out. If you want to buy in on Baltimore's chances, wait until the odds are better in a few months.
Buy: Houston Texans
What a time to be a Texans fan. Coming off a season where Houston shockingly made the playoffs and had both the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year, things are only gonna get better.
The Texans don't have their own first-round pick, but they still have Cleveland's (No. 23 overall) and they've got a lot of cap space to work with. According to PFF's projections, Houston will have the NFL's third-most open cap room ($69 million).
Beyond Derek Stingley Jr., they've got needs in the secondary and could add another top receiver to help out CJ Stroud in free agency. DBs like Jaylon Johnson or L'Jarius Sneed would look great in dark blue and WR Tee Higgins would be the perfect addition for Houston's offense.
The Texans could do nothing and still be a legit contender next year, but I'd expect them to ball out this summer. Buy some Texans stock now, as they sit +2500 in Super Bowl odds, before they jump up the board.
Sell: Kansas City Chiefs
If I learned one thing from this NFL season, it's to never bet against Patrick Mahomes. So, what am I going to do in my first post-Super Bowl article of the offseason? Tell you not to bet on Patrick Mahomes... yet.
The reason here is some offseason unknowns. The Chiefs and DC Steve Spagnuolo just posted one of the best team defense seasons we've seen in a long time, but two of their best players could walk this summer.
DT Chris Jones and CB L'Jarius Sneed are both set for free agency, and it's hard to see a world where both came come back with KC's current cap situation. The Chiefs sit second in Super Bowl odds entering the offseason, but I think we could see them drift a few points down the board as the offseason goes on. If you want to bet on the Chiefs to three-peat as champs, at least wait for free agency to play out as you might get better value.
Buy: Minnesota Vikings
With the Chiefs and Ravens, I've told you to hold off on your Super Bowl futures bets because they have key free agents who could leave in the offseason. But with the Vikings, I'm going to do the exact opposite.
The Vikings have one crucial free agent this summer: QB Kirk Cousins. But, I think Minny's Super Bowl odds already bake in the chance that he leaves, so much so that I think they're actually great value. Cousins was brilliant last season before he got hurt in Week 8 — he had 18 TDs to five interceptions, passed for 291 yards per game, and had his highest QBR since 2016. After he went down for the year, the Vikings fell off and posted a 3-6 record down the stretch.
Minnesota #Vikings QB Kirk Cousins "is expected to have a strong market" in free agency despite coming off a torn Achilles. 💰💪 #SKOL pic.twitter.com/QKZCcp1kMH
— SKOR North - Minnesota Sports (@SKORNorth) February 12, 2024
If Minnesota can lock up the 36-year-old QB (which seems likely), I think they've got a shot to compete again in the NFC North and at the very least dance with a playoff spot. You're getting that potential at the same +4000 Super Bowl odds as the CHICAGO BEARS! Good deal.
