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Browns running back Nick Chubb broke his foot in Week 15 and he's the heart and soul of this Browns team. The Bengals are still alive (barely) in the playoff hunt so I'll expect them to be a lot more motivated than the lame duck Browns.
Jameis Winston took a seat last week in favor of backup QB DTR, so the Browns QB position is uncertain. No matter who is under center for the Browns, the Bengals will have a big advantage at the position.
Click here to see my full analysis of the Bengals vs. Browns game.
Pick made at 8:10 pm ET on Sunday, Dec. 15
With Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting for the Browns, this is a game that the Bengals should win, but will they cover? All signs point to yes.
Earlier in the season, Thompson-Robinson came in for an injured Deshaun Watson and his numbers on that day were abysmal: 11/24, 82 yards, 2 picks, and a fumble. On top of that, the Bengals are 6-1 ATS against teams with losing records this season, with six straight covers.
Joe Burrow and the offense continue to roll, and Cincinnati covers the 7.5-point spread.
The defensive injuries are stacking up for the Lions, but that won’t keep their offense from putting up fireworks against this porous Bears defense. Jahmyr Gibbs has an excellent matchup to exploit as the Bears rank 31st in run defense DVOA. Chicago has allowed 30+ points in both games after dismissing Matt Eberflus - expect Detroit to make it 3 for 3.
It's not in my nature to make moneyline parlays with two big favorites, but it's tough to imagine the Lions or Falcons losing this week.
Both Atlanta and Detroit have huge motivation edges in their games as they fight for playoff seeding both opponents (Giants and Bears) have been struggling mightily in recent weeks.
Bet made at 5:07 pm ET on December 17
The Lions have been deemed the "best team in football" all year, Super Bowl favorites, and the #1 seed, but all of that is in huge jeopardy right now. With so much to play for, I expect that Detroit will remind us who they are at Soldier Field on Sunday and cover the 6.5-point spread.
The Lions are 5-1 ATS on the road and 6-0 outright away from Ford Field. This should be easy work for Dan Campbell’s men.
These teams played on Thanksgiving Day, with the Lions winning 23-20. If you look at the box score, Detroit had a lot of rushing yards and big plays in the running game. David Montgomery is no longer part of that offense. While I still think Detroit will run, pass, score, and kick well enough to avoid a second straight loss, I believe Chicago will hang around and keep it close.
It's not in my nature to make moneyline parlays with two big favorites, but it's tough to imagine the Lions or Falcons losing this week.
Both Atlanta and Detroit have huge motivation edges in their games as they fight for playoff seeding both opponents (Giants and Bears) have been struggling mightily in recent weeks.
Bet made at 5:07 pm ET on December 17
Against teams not named the Seattle Seahawks, the Arizona Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six and 6-0 against the spread in that run. Lucky for Arizona, they don't play Seattle tonight.
Instead, the Cards match up against a Panthers team that's 0-4 in their last four games and 3-11 on the season. Carolina's only wins this year have come against the Raiders, Giants, and Saints — arguably the three worst teams in football.
James Conner has eight touchdowns in 14 contests this year. Recently, he's been quite hot, with three TDs and 250 yards in his last two games.
That hot streak should continue against a Panthers defense that can't stop the run. For a second-straight season, Carolina has let up the most touchdowns to RBs in the NFL (17 in 14 games).
It's likely that Will Levis will be holding the clipboard in Week 16 after a pitiful performance last week vs the Bengals. While Mason Rudolph may be an upgrade, it's not enough to handle Indy.
If not for a stupid drop by JT on the goal line in Week 15, we might see the Colts as a larger favorite this week. Perhaps he dropped so we can all win in Week 16.
The Rams are simply a better team than the Jets and they're all much better coached than the Jets. New York might be in tank mode, but even if they're not, they won't have the kind of motivation the Rams do while fighting for life in the NFC West.
DJ Reed was out for the Jets last week and if he doesn't start this week, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will make that secondary pay.
Pick made 7:54 pm ET on Sunday, Dec. 15
The Rams make a tricky trip East to take on the Jets as they look to continue their recent momentum, winning eight of their last ten games. Los Angeles’ offense was stymied in heavy rain in San Francisco last week, but it had been on fire before that. The Rams should get back on track against the Jets, who rank 30th in EPA/play allowed since Week 9.
With Aaron Rodgers playing solid football lately, the Jets can hold their own in the scoring department, especially if Davante Adams continues his recent hot streak.
Last week, the Jets showed a lot of fight against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Duval County. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams connected for several big plays, and I think the Jets' offense will find success again this week. Every time I turn on the radio, someone is talking about the Rams as the NFC team "no one wants to face" in the playoffs. I’m not buying it. I like the Lions, Packers, Eagles, Buccaneers, and Vikings more than I like the Rams.
Give me the Jets +3.5.
The Eagles have won 10-straight games and covered in seven of the last nine contests. They've also beat good teams in that run, with wins and covers against the Steelers, Ravens, Rams, and these same Commanders. The Eagles are also one of the best road teams in the league this year, rocking a 6-1-0 away record.
I don’t love laying the 3.5, but I’m taking the best team in football here in Week 16.
The Eagles have won 10 straight games since starting 2-2 and can win games however they want it seems. They boast the best defense in football in terms of yards per game, and the #1 seed is very much in play for them.
The Eagles are 6-1 outright on the road and 5-0 ATS in their last five games. I expect them to make another statement in the nation’s capital this weekend and cover the 3.5-point spread.
I think this game will be close. The Commanders have beaten bad teams and lost to good ones, but their defense has performed well against their opponents in recent weeks.
This is the game where I expect Terry McLaurin to make an impact. Look for McLaurin to score an anytime touchdown (+135), go over 24.5 yards for his longest reception, and over 65.5 receiving yards. The Commanders halt the Eagles' 10-game winning streak with a 23-22 victory.
Geno Smith looks like he'll play. But, the Seahawks OL can't block in front of him. Seattle gave up 22 pressures and seven sacks to Green Bay last week. They'll be hard pressed to hold off Brian Flores aggressive blitzing scheme.
Expect the Vikings defense to dominate this game, while Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson score enough to cover the spread.
Take a peek at my Vikings vs Seahawks betting preview for more.
The Seahawks have allowed opposing running backs to cross 120+ rushing and receiving yards in back-to-back games. Seattle's poor run defense was exploited by the Packers, and I'm betting Kevin O'Connell will unleash Aaron Jones on Sunday.
Grab this one while you can at Bet365, it won't last long. Some books are at -14 and -14.5 and after the Bills' 48 point effort I'm expecting the point spread to head north.
The Patriots offensive line is really bad, especially at the LT position. Buffalo should be able to pressure Drake Maye all day long and it's tough to imagine this Patriots defense putting up much of a fight.
Bet placed at 7:49 pm ET on Sunday, Dec. 15
The Patriots have lost five games this year by more than 14.5 points. The Bills have bested teams by more than 14.5 points five times this year, too. I rarely take 14.5-point favorites, but this game is a rare opportunity to do so confidently.
While Drake Maye has been fun to watch, the Patriots’ offensive line remains inept, and I see no way New England keeps up with Buffalo, especially in frigid weather.
The Bills' point totals over the last eight weeks: are 34, 31, 30, 30, 30, 30, 35, 42, and 48, so expect this to continue against New England who has scored an average of 19 points per game in their last 6, and 17 in their last 14.
Can't feel confident playing either side of this game but there were some promising signs of life with Jacksonville last week with Mac Jones hitting on 31 of 46 passes for 294 yards, two TDs and two picks.
Meanwhile, Ridder was the leading rusher for the Raiders with 28 yards -- YIKES.
Play responsibly on this battle of two S*** teams! Small unit on the Jags.
The 49ers come in with extra rest and the Dolphins just lost an emotional game that essentially ended their playoff hopes. I'm expecting the 49ers to come out with more intensity in a matchup of two teams with little but pride to play for.
Kyle Shanahan has a nice track record vs. his disciples and I think he'll lay the wood on his former subordinate in this spot.
Bet placed at 7:59 pm ET on Sunday, Dec. 15
These teams are headed in opposite directions. The Dolphins have won four of their last six and have rounded into form on offense. While the 49ers have lost four of five, and looking completely lost offensively.
Back the Dolphins to come out on top on Sunday. Check out of 49ers vs Dolphins betting preview for more.
Miami has hit this number in six of their last eight games. As much as the 49ers defense has changed, Mike MacDonald knows their scheme, and players well from years of practice as a SF coach.
Expect the Dolphins to hit this number with ease against a struggling 49ers defense.
The 49ers are overvalued this season. It just isn’t their year. Miami still has a slight chance to make the playoffs. The Dolphins are 3-15 under Mike McDaniel against teams over .500, but the 49ers are 6-8, under .500, and lack quality wins this season. San Francisco is 1-5 ATS on the road. I think their season ends here in South Beach. Give me the Dolphins -1.
Dallas is 1-6 at home and it's hard to imagine a scenario where they get up for this game and match Tampa Bay's intensity. The Bucs have all the motivation in the world thanks to a tight division race, while Cowboys players are probably already planning their family vacations.
The Bucs have major advantages over Dallas in the redzone and I think Dallas will have an especially difficult time putting up touchdowns in this one.
Click here for my full Buccaneers vs Cowboys preview.
Pick made at 11:01 pm ET on Tuesday, December 17
I love Darren Rizzi as a head coach, and the Saints showed an inspired effort last week. However, I think they get mauled on Monday night in Green Bay. New Orleans is 3-14 ATS in primetime games over the last five years, the worst in the NFL, and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
The Packers have won four straight ATS. With snow likely at kickoff in Green Bay, it should be tougher for Spencer Rattler and the Saints than for the home team.
It's a large number, but the Green Bay Packers are well equipped to blow out the Saints on MNF. With Alvin Kamara out the Saints will struggle to move the football.
The Packers are ascending with the playoffs on the horizon. Jordan Love has been lights out during Toyotathon and Josh Jacobs has looked unstoppable. Plus, Saints rookie QB Spencer Rattler is brutal when under pressure.
Check out my Saints vs Packers betting preview for more.
Love has surpassed this number in 11 of his last 13 games at home. A little snow won't scare the Packers passing game. Especially against a Saints defense that allows 242.6 passing yards per game.
This game seems to be priced as if Geno Smith (knee) isn't going to play. However, with a playoff spot on the line, I'm expecting him to play and for this line to go up.
If I'm wrong, Sam Howell is a capable backup at quarterback for Seattle and the Seahawks could still win this game against a Bears team that's strugglingly mightily.
Seattle is in the thick of the NFC West race and will have a big motivation edge in this one vs a team that's had drama and bad body language for the second half of the season.
| Last 100 | To Win | ATS | Total O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ Units (Opening) | -$395 | -$579 | -$62 |
| $ Units (Closing) | -$727 | -$553 | -$445 |
| Record (Opening) | 61 - 39 | 49 - 47 - 4 | 54 - 46 |
| Record (Closing) | 61 - 39 | 48 - 49 - 3 | 49 - 49 - 2 |
For every matchup in an NFL season, our NFL computer produces selections for a variety of different betting angles. Our computer picks are based on a proprietary algorithm that values each team in the current week to produce moneyline, spread, and point total selections.
The table above (below the game picks) tracks our NFL computer's results over the last 100 games, outlining the record and profit for selections (based on $100 unit size). We track the profit based on both opening and closing lines for every matchup.
How to Use NFL Computer Picks
The easiest way to utilize our computer picks is to simply follow our selections for every matchup, what you'd call "tailing the computer." But, there are other ways to utilize our NFL computer picks, as well.
You can use our NFL computer as a jumping-off point to do more research into specific lines, cross-referencing with expert picks (which can be found above the selections for some matchups), recent NFL betting trends, and more.
As well, you can gauge the confidence of the matchup. The larger the projected score, the more confident the computer is in a specific pick.
Or, if you want to implement a system (betting only on underdogs, for example) you can look for matchups in which our computer likes the underdog to inform which picks you're going to hone in on for a given week.
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Moneyline
NFL moneyline moneyline picks are the simplest way to get in on the NFL action. All you have to do is simply bet on which team you think will win the game.
For moneyline picks, the favorite is represented with a minus sign (-) in front of the odds, while the underdog has a plus (+). However, you don't get the same profit for picking an underdog compared to a favorite. If the favored team is -120, a $100 bet on them would pay out $80 in profit and $180 total. The underdog winning at +150 would pay out a $150 profit, $250 total.
We've got a complete breakdown of how to read NFL moneyline odds for these NFL computer picks.
Spread
While moneyline picks are the simplest, picking NFL games against the spread is probably the most common wager for regular NFL bettors.
To bet an NFL spread, you wager on whether a team will win by a certain number of points or more or if they'll lose by fewer points than the spread. For example, if the spread is -6.5 for the New England Patriots, you would win the bet if they win the game by 7 points or more. Or if a team is +6.5, you're betting on if they'll win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.
There is a correlation between moneyline odds and the spread, as books set these lines based on the same information.
You can read more about NFL spreads here.
Totals (Over/Under)
If you aren’t entirely sold on which NFL team will win or cover in an NFL game, you can still use our NFL computer picks to bet on the point total.
As opposed to taking a side, in total or over/under betting you wager on whether both NFL teams will combine for a final score of more than (over) or less than (under) the total number of points set by oddsmakers.
The computer picks and your handicapping of totals are more about how you think both teams will score points, not which team has the edge to win.
More NFL Picks & Betting Tools
Our NFL Computer Picks are a great way to place weekly football wagers, but you should also consider handicapping games yourself using some of our other tools. We've got dedicated an NFL trends page, power rankings, and an NFL database for you to gauge the talent and value of each team. We've also got updated NFL scores and NFL prop picks on our NFL hub each week.
If you're looking to bet on long-term futures this football season, check out some of our other dedicated pages:
