From February 12 to 20, Canada, the USA, Sweden, and Finland take the ice in Montreal and Boston for the NHL's 4 Nations Face-Off to be crowned the hockey nation. Sportsbook has the 4-Nations Face-Off odds with Canada set as the slight +145 favorite.
But I'd give the edge to the Americans (+150) who can match the Canadians' talent-for-talent in offense and defense, but are leaps and bounds better between the pipes.
4 Nations Face-Off Odds
| Nation | Odds |
|---|---|
| Canada | +145 |
| USA | +150 |
| Sweden | +400 |
| Finland | +1300 |
Odds as of January 31 at Sportsbook
4 Nations Face-Off Odds: Canada
Canada has dominated the international ice hockey stage, they've won gold in three of the last four Winter Olympics and they won the World Cup of Hockey in 2004 and 2016. Oh, and since the 2015-16 NHL season four of the 10 highest-scoring players are Canadian (one is American, three are Russian, one is Czech, and one is German). Those four Canadians are Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, and Brad Marchand, all four have been named to the Canadian roster.
Canada's roster for the #4Nations Face-Off is set! 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/9W9lw6LR40
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) December 4, 2024
But if there's a weak link in the Canadians' roster it's between the pipes, Adin Hill, Jordan Binnington, and Sam Montembeault represent the weakest Canadian goaliecore I've seen in ages. Neither of them is having what you'd call "a good season" with poor numbers so far laying bare just how bereft of talent Canada is between the pipes.
| Goalie | SV% | GAA |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill | 2.61 | 0.901 |
| Jordan Binnington | 2.86 | 0.898 |
| Samuel Montembeault | 2.98 | 0.897 |
But with such a short tournament perhaps one of these three shot-stoppers can turn in a performance. Adin Hill powered the Golden Knights to a Stanley Cup two years ago with a 0.932SV% and 2.17GAA in 16 games so maybe he can reproduce that magic?
4 Nations Face-Off Odds: USA
My best bet for this tournament is on the Americans at +150 that's thanks to their incredible quality between the pipes with Vezina Trophy-caliber goalies like two-time winner Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger (finished 5th in 2023 voting), and Jeremy Swayman (finished seventh in 2024 voting).
| Goalie | SV% | GAA |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck | 2.02 | 0.927 |
| Jake Oettinger | 2.26 | 0.914 |
| Jeremy Swayman | 2.94 | 0.897 |
Beyond their strong goalkeeping squad, the Americans have Auston Matthews who is the games' best goal scorer with 69 goals in 81 games last season, as well as a good group of 100-point players like Matthew Tkachuk, Jack Eichel (who's on pace for over 100 points), and Jack Hughes (who's been pacing out to a 100 points over his last three seasons).
Don't forget Quinn Hughes who won the Norris Trophy as the league's top defenseman last season, and could easily win a second this year with 58 points in 46 games.
Sure Canada has won many international tournaments but the Americans have plenty of international success nabbing two Olympic silvers. They're nipping at Canada's heels and could, in my opinion, easily beat them at this tournament.
4 Nations Face-Off Odds: Sweden
Sweden's roster is talented but doesn't reach the highest of the Canadians or Americans. Their forward core is solid with players like Elias Pettersson, Adrian Kempe, Mika Zibanejad, and Filip Forsberg, but it can't go toe-to-toe with the sheer volumes of production the USA and Canada can muster.
Defensively the Swedes have an edge thanks to a blueline filled with fluid puck movers like Karlsson, Dahlin, and Hedman who could help them deal with the barrage of hyper-talented forwards from the Canadians and Americans. They've also got surprised goaltending standout Filip Gustavsson averaging a 0.914 save percentage and 2.58 goals against average on the season for Minnesota.
The Swedes will have to grind out wins in this tournament to see it through, if they can control the pace of play, they could find success.
4 Nations Face-Off Odds: Finland
Finland is rarely the most talented roster at an international tournament but they make up for that by being the hardest-working squad. Much like Sweden, the Finns could succeed if their lineup led by Barkov and Aho can control the pace of the game, frustrate and outwork their opponents. The Fins were dealt a blow just before the tournament with defenseman and Dallas Stars captain Miro Heiskanen suffering a lower-body injury that will keep him out of the tournament.
They'll also have to take advantage of their opportunities, which means converting on the powerplay. Thankfully, they've got Patrick Laine in the lineup, 75% of Laine's goals this year have come on the power play helping Montreal convert on nearly a quarter of their power plays when he's in the lineup.
Because of how short this tournament is a single game can change everything so while Finland's odds are long at +1300 there's a lot of value here if they can get a surprise result.
