The Colorado Rockies needed a tiebreaker game and a wild-card victory to earn their spot in the NLDS and they are looking to continue their hot play against the Milwaukee Brewers. The two teams met seven times in the regular season with the Brewers winning five of those games. Milwaukee opened as a -130 favorite in Game 1 with Colorado coming back at +108. Antonio Senzatela opposes Brandon Woodruff on the mound with the total Sportsbook at 8.5 runs.
- The Rockies are 2-7 SU and ATS in their last nine games vs the Brewers.
- The Brewers are 8-0 SU in their last eight games (avg. winning margin: 4.13).
- The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Rockies’ last 16 games on the road (avg. combined score: 5.69).
Rockies vs Brewers Game Center
Senzatela is coming off a strong September
Antonio Senzatela (6-6, 4.38 ERA) is looking to carry his good performances from September into Game 1 of the NLDS. The Rockies went 4-1 SU in the 23-year-old’s last five trips to the mound while he sported a respectable 3.25 ERA, allowing three or fewer runs in four of the five starts. Colorado went 3-4 SU in Senzatela’s seven road outings in 2018 where he held a 4.01 ERA, but the Rockies won his last two road starts and he had a 1.50 ERA in those appearances.
This is just the second career start for Senzatela vs the Brewers and the first appearance since early April of 2017. The Venezuela native was good in that game, tossing five scoreless innings, allowing just two hits while striking out six batters in a 2-1 Rockies victory at Miller Park. This is the first career playoff trip to the mound for Senzatela.
The Brewers are using a ‘bullpenning’ approach to Game 1
Brandon Woodruff (3-0, 3.61 ERA) will be the first to throw for the Brewers but manager Craig Counsell has said that this will be a bullpen day moving through the game. The relief pitchers have been a bright spot for Milwaukee this season, holding the fifth-lowest ERA in the majors all season. Meanwhile, Woodruff was remarkable in September, appearing in seven games and giving up just one earned run on 10 hits over 12.1 innings for a 0.73 ERA.
The Mississippi native made a start against the Rockies in mid-May and it wasn’t a good outing. Colorado roughed the righty up for seven earned runs on nine hits while he lasted three innings. Woodruff has made one other trip to the mound vs the Rockies in his career and it was much better as he tossed 4.2 innings in a 2017 contest, giving up one earned run on five hits in a 6-3 win.
UNDER trending between the Brewers and Rockies
Today’s total opened at 8.5 runs and the total has gone UNDER in 14 of the last 20 meetings between these two clubs with an average combined score of 9.15. Meanwhile, the total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Rockies’ last 16 games on the road with an average combined score of 5.69. Additionally, in Senzatela’s lone career start vs the Brewers, the combined score was 3 and the total has gone UNDER in his last six road starts. Lastly, since the all-star break, Milwaukee has allowed the ninth-fewest runs in the majors, while Colorado has surrendered the 11th-fewest runs over that span.
My take on Colorado vs Milwaukee
I don’t trust the bullpen approach that the Brewers are employing and with the Rockies being an underdog and given +1.5 runline, that is my pick for this matchup. Brandon Woodruff made a start against the Rockies earlier this season and was swarmed for seven earned runs on nine hits over three innings. Meanwhile, Colorado has won 10 of its last 12 games, including the wild-card game vs the Cubs on Tuesday. Additionally, the Rockies have won four of Senzatela’s last five trips to the mound. Lastly, the Oakland Athletics used a bullpen approach in last night’s AL wild-card game and it blew up in their face and I wouldn’t be surprised by a similar situation tonight.
