The Cardinals redzone defense ranks seventh in the NFL, while the Vikings redzone defense ranks 27th. I think the Cardinals will be able to force enough field goals to keep this game close. The prospects of a backdoor cover with Kyler Murray are always on the table as well.
Bet placed 9:45 am ET on Sunday, December 1
This is a low total for Conner and I get it because he's struggled in back-to-back weeks and facing a tough Vikings defense. I'll grab the buy low spot for Conner who just signed a contract extension and she be eager to show he's worth the money. This Vikings defense isn't what it was earlier in the season.
Bet placed at 9:56 am ET on December 1
Keep an eye on the injury report for this one. Should J.K. Dobbins not be active for this week it's a no brainer bet on Atlanta which should its fortitude after a 34-14 beatdown to Seattle with a win in Tampa a week later.
The Falcons had a week off to their lick their wounds after getting smoked by the Broncos 38-6. Play with caution here and make sure Dobbins is out before you open the wallet for Atlanta.
The Chargers' seven wins came against teams with a combined record of 26-52, four losses against teams with a record of 32-13. The hype train died Monday night vs brother John.
No J.K. Dobbins this week with an MCL and Gus Edwards ain't an every down back. Brutal scheduling spot for LA, losing on Monday night and then travel east to play Sunday at 1:00 against a rested Falcons team off a bye.
Atlanta was spanked 38-6 at Denver two weeks ago and I think they've had 14 days to think about it, and they right the ship here at home.
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Short week for Jim Harbaugh and company after blowing that 10-0 lead in the MNF loss to brother John and the Ravens -- but we aren't worried.
The Falcons have been a bit challenging to handicap at 6-5 but 4-1 in the NFC South, they've struggled outside of the division, scoring just 23 total points in back-to-back road losses at New Orleans and at Denver. I understand they've had the bye week but this is a middle-of-the-road NFC team taking it one of the AFC's better teams.
Herbert and the Bolts bounce back with their fourth straight in the series with the Falcons. Jim Harbaugh coaches the boys to a big road win at the A-T-L.
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The Bengals have no margin for error coming off their bye week, and they’re hosting a nasty Steelers defense. Joe Burrow has had an MVP-caliber season with 27 passing touchdowns to just four interceptions, and he thrives against defenses that operate in single-high coverage like the Steelers do.
Pay attention to the injury status of left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., as he’ll be vital against T.J. Watt and the elite Pittsburgh pass rush, but these teams are far closer in on-field product than their records suggest. Back the superior offense to secure the home win.
Joey Porter Jr. will likely shadow Jamarr Chase today, leaving plenty of room for Tee Higgins. He'll draw an exploitable matchup against PFF's 111th ranked corner, Donte Jackson.
Higgins sits ninth in yards per route run against man coverage, and Pittsburgh is in the top-10 in man coverage rate this season. Expect to see number 5 mamboing on Sunday afternoon.
Surprisingly, the Jaguars are allowed back in the league following their 52-6 beatdown at the hands of the Lions two weeks ago. They face a tough task coming off their bye, though, as the Texans come to town having won six straight against the Jags.
If visually things haven't been going well for Jacksonville, on paper it isn't any better with an ugly -108 point differential and is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games. We'll lay the points in Jacksonville.
Last week, the Texans had 11 penalties, only 25.5 minutes of possession time, outgained 369 to 260, C.J. Stroud has thrown five picks in his last three games and dare I say looked like he didn't want to compete for a minute. Not sure if he's injured but I think they get right here against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville boasts the worst passing defense in football, and its rushing defense is seventh from the bottom, great opportunity for the TExans to move the chains and control the line of scrimmage.
The Texans have lost three of four, but a solid win here gets them to 8-5 before the bye. I think DeMeco Ryans has them in a right frame of mind to do just that, whether it's Mac Jones or a banged up Trevor Lawrence at QB for the Jags.
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Pollard rushed for 119 yards last week in a surprise win over the Houston Texans.
He's now seventh in the NFL in rushing and has seen 20+ carries in three of his past five games. Look for Pollard to have a huge day against a Commanders defense that ranks 28th in rushing EPA allowed over the pat four weeks.
The Jaguars are the worst team in the league defending No. 2 WR according to FTNFantasy.com and Dell is one of the best No. 2 WRs in the league. I'm expecting CJ Stroud to look more like himself this week, but even if Stroud struggles, Dell should get enough looks to hit this number. Consider laddering it up.
Bet placed 10:12 am ET on Sunday, December 1
Indianapolis at 5-7 figures to be favored in three of its final four games after this one. A lot of production against the Lions, despite the loss in Week 12. Josh Downs does have shoulder injury and didn't practice on Wednesday, so the Colts could very well be without him.
The Colts' defense is much more stout than New England's, they've been competitive in most games, my best bet, actually, for Week 13 laying the short 2.5 at the Pats.
If we get news that Aaron Rodgers isn't going to start (this has been rumored) then this bet will get some great closing line value. This Seahawks defense is playing a lot better since cutting Dodson, their leading tackler. Seattle will have a big motivation edge in this one as the they're in the thick of the NFC West.
Bet placed at 8:18 pm ET on Sunday, Nov. 24
Seattle with a hard-fought win inside the division against Arizona last week and right back in the thick of things at 6-5 after back-to-back wins with Mike Macdonald's first season.
The Jets are 3-8 and playing a first-place team which plays in a tough division. Kenneth Walker III continues to contribute in the passing game and that's a good thing because neither DK Metcalf nor Tyler Lockett was able to practice mid-wee.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba continued his breakout year with his third score in the last three weeks for Seattle. I like the Seahawks on the road 24-21.
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This matchup features two offenses heading in opposite directions.
After leading the NFL in offensive EPA/play over the first seven weeks, the Commanders have just the 18th-ranked offense since Week 8. Jayden Daniels has slowed down significantly, and Kliff Kingsbury’s seemingly annual offensive decline is in full force.
Meanwhile, Will Levis has cut down on turnover and ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt since Week 10. After winning outright as 8-point road underdogs last week, the Titans are live for another upset over a struggling Commanders outfit.
The Rams are coming off a blowout loss to the Eagles on Sunday Night Football, but this profiles as an excellent bounce-back spot against a Saints team that has dealt with significant injury attrition this season.
With Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua all healthy, the Rams have matchup advantages across the board against the Saints defense.
Jared Verse and the ascending Rams pass rush should also have their way with one of the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in the league. Take the Rams under a field goal on the road as they fight to stay alive in a wide-open NFC West.
I'm not buying into the Saints hype after two wins with their interim head coach. In fact, Sean McVay vs Darren Rizzi is the biggest head coach mismatch of the day. The Rams have a lot more to play for in this one and I expect them to get it done.
Los Angeles' wide receivers should have a big day.
Bet placed 10:17 am ET on Sunday, December 1
Each of these teams possess top-10 red zone defenses. While both offenses should move the ball, expect the stop units to hunker down in the redzone.
Additionally, the Rams own the number one pressure rate in the NFL and will get after Derek Carr and a terrible Saints oline.
The Eagles actually rank ahead of the Ravens in expected wins, point differential, and Net EPA. They've also won seven games in a row, each by at least four points. But yet, Philly is an underdog in this one.
With the Eagles also rocking an extra day of rest, I'll take the dogs on the moneyline here.
This is a bold bet, as Barkley is 8-2 on his rushing OVER this year and is averaging 127 rushing yards per game.
But, the key here is the Ravens' rushing defense. Baltimore is allowing RBs to rush for just 60.5 rushing yards per game against them and haven't had a single RB tally more than 65 yards against them this season.
Philly is the more well-rounded team on paper.
I think both of these teams have a great chance to win it all. At the very least, they are both tracking to play on Championship weekend. I just like the Philadelphia defense. I like the way Nick Sirianni has the team tunnel-focused. Playmakers and difference makers around in this game on both sides.
Ultimately, I think AJ Brown makes a big play late, the Eagles have won seven in a row, they have covered in five those.
Not going to be easy, but given the short week for Baltimore, I'll take the birds and the three --- maybe they even move to 10-2 after that 2-2 start of the year.
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This game has weather implications and I suspect this total will be less than 45 by kickoff, pehaps even under 44 which is a fairly key number. The Forecast has winter storm watches that could hit Buffalo by kickoff.
Brock Purdy may not play in this one and if he does, he may be less than 100% with an injured throwing shoulder in cold weather. Purdy not being fully healthy lowers the ceiling for this 49ers offense.
Bet placed 1:16 pm ET on November 26
If Brock Purdy is healthy, this is a no-brainer pick for me. The 49ers may be struggling this year, but they've covered +7 in all but one game this season.
In Purdy's career, the 49ers have lost by over seven points in just three of 31 contests.
With the weather also expected to be bad in Buffalo, I think this one can stay close.
The Broncos are playing with a lot of swagger right now and I think they matchup really well with the Browns in this spot. Sure, the Browns got the win last week, but that was more because of some help from Mother Nature than it was because the Browns are a good football team.
The Broncos are a good football team and their impressive pass rush should be able to make Jameis Winston feel uncomfortable all day long.
Click here to see my full analysis of the Browns vs. Broncos game.
Bet placed at 7:53 pm ET on Sunday, Nov. 24
The Browns are one of the worst teams in the league at defending opposing No. 1 wide receivers and they allow more than a touchdown per game to WRs.
Sutton has been on a hot streak lately and has three touchdowns in his last three games. I like his chances of finding the endzone here.
Click here to see my full analysis of the Browns vs. Broncos game.
Bet placed at 10:20 am ET on Nov. 27
| Last 100 | To Win | ATS | Total O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ Units (Opening) | -$900 | -$850 | $1245 |
| $ Units (Closing) | -$1100 | -$1183 | -$64 |
| Record (Opening) | 58 - 42 | 48 - 49 - 3 | 61 - 39 |
| Record (Closing) | 58 - 42 | 45 - 53 - 2 | 51 - 47 - 2 |
For every matchup in an NFL season, our NFL computer produces selections for a variety of different betting angles. Our computer picks are based on a proprietary algorithm that values each team in the current week to produce moneyline, spread, and point total selections.
The table above (below the game picks) tracks our NFL computer's results over the last 100 games, outlining the record and profit for selections (based on $100 unit size). We track the profit based on both opening and closing lines for every matchup.
How to Use NFL Computer Picks
The easiest way to utilize our computer picks is to simply follow our selections for every matchup, what you'd call "tailing the computer." But, there are other ways to utilize our NFL computer picks, as well.
You can use our NFL computer as a jumping-off point to do more research into specific lines, cross-referencing with expert picks (which can be found above the selections for some matchups), recent NFL betting trends, and more.
As well, you can gauge the confidence of the matchup. The larger the projected score, the more confident the computer is in a specific pick.
Or, if you want to implement a system (betting only on underdogs, for example) you can look for matchups in which our computer likes the underdog to inform which picks you're going to hone in on for a given week.
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Moneyline
NFL moneyline moneyline picks are the simplest way to get in on the NFL action. All you have to do is simply bet on which team you think will win the game.
For moneyline picks, the favorite is represented with a minus sign (-) in front of the odds, while the underdog has a plus (+). However, you don't get the same profit for picking an underdog compared to a favorite. If the favored team is -120, a $100 bet on them would pay out $80 in profit and $180 total. The underdog winning at +150 would pay out a $150 profit, $250 total.
We've got a complete breakdown of how to read NFL moneyline odds for these NFL computer picks.
Spread
While moneyline picks are the simplest, picking NFL games against the spread is probably the most common wager for regular NFL bettors.
To bet an NFL spread, you wager on whether a team will win by a certain number of points or more or if they'll lose by fewer points than the spread. For example, if the spread is -6.5 for the New England Patriots, you would win the bet if they win the game by 7 points or more. Or if a team is +6.5, you're betting on if they'll win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.
There is a correlation between moneyline odds and the spread, as books set these lines based on the same information.
You can read more about NFL spreads here.
Totals (Over/Under)
If you aren’t entirely sold on which NFL team will win or cover in an NFL game, you can still use our NFL computer picks to bet on the point total.
As opposed to taking a side, in total or over/under betting you wager on whether both NFL teams will combine for a final score of more than (over) or less than (under) the total number of points set by oddsmakers.
The computer picks and your handicapping of totals are more about how you think both teams will score points, not which team has the edge to win.
More NFL Picks & Betting Tools
Our NFL Computer Picks are a great way to place weekly football wagers, but you should also consider handicapping games yourself using some of our other tools. We've got dedicated an NFL trends page, power rankings, and an NFL database for you to gauge the talent and value of each team. We've also got updated NFL scores and NFL prop picks on our NFL hub each week.
If you're looking to bet on long-term futures this football season, check out some of our other dedicated pages:
