Find Your Edge! Scan our Expert Picks and click pick for analysis
I'm buying low on a Steelers team that's money at home under Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is 19-11 SU as a home underdog in Tomlin's coaching tenure, and an even better 20-9-1 ATS.
Cincinnati is just 10-43 in road primetime games all-time. Check out my Bengals vs Steelers betting preview for more.
Warren has hit this line in two straight games, seeing 11 targets and 40+ receiving yards per game.
The Oklahoma State product hauled in four receptions for 55 yards in the first matchup between these teams.
So you're telling me there's a chance?! Gotta ride with Joey B Man!
The Bengals are 7-1 ATS on the road and have won four straight ATS. Pittsburgh is reeling after three straight losses and it's fading at the wrong time.
Russell Wilson is averaging just 177 passing yards over his last four games.
I'll take the confident, hot team with a ton at stake.
For more NFL Week 18 picks check out Anik vs Anik on YouTube.
I don't see the Steelers offensve being able to keep up with Joey football here -- they've lost three in a row. Gimme the Bengals to win by two or more, thereby making Sunday a bit more interesting.
For more NFL Week 18 picks check out Anik vs Anik on YouTube.
Talk about peaking at the right time! Washington has won all four of their December contests and now bring that swagger into Week 18 at Dallas.
A Commander win locks up the sixth seed, and prevents a wild card matchup at Philadelphia. One team with something to play for, the other team talking about vacation plans in the locker room.
Gimme Jayden Daniels and co. to win, cover, and stay hot entering postseason play.
For more NFL Week 18 picks check out Anik vs Anik on YouTube.
Chicago is completely discombobulated. These teams are headed in opposite directions and the Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL across the past 10 weeks. They've lost 10 straight in embarrassing fashion.
Meanwhile the Packers have scored 30+ in four of their last five games. Look for Josh Jacobs to dominate and check out my Bears vs Packers betting preview for more.
The Buffalo Bills have clinched the AFC East and the No. 2 seed in the conference, and they are projected to bench their starters in Week 18. Josh Allen will start the game to continue the longest active streak of consecutive starts, but he’ll only play a few snaps.
Assuming Drake Maye starts for the Patriots, he gives them a puncher’s chance to beat a Buffalo squad of backups. Take the points with the home underdog in this one.
See my full Bills vs Patriots preview here.
Are the Patriots smart enough to know how to lose a football game? I think they're about as good as the Bills practice squad and that's who they'll be playing this weekend.
You can only rest so many guys, Sean McDermott has said the priority is to win the game.
If it's Jacoby Brissett taking the bulk of the snaps, you've gotta feel really good about this Bills play. But sneaking suspciion is the Pats will keep it close, and actually jeopardize relinquishing the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
That said, gimme the Bills 27-17.
For more NFL Week 18 picks check out Anik vs Anik on YouTube.
Barkley needs just over 100 yards to break the all-time rushing record, you know he's going to be active and rumbling, especially against the second-worst rush defense in the NFL.
If Barkley is rumbling, so to are the Eagles and we'll lay the number in Philly for Week 18.
Here's my full Giants vs Eagles preview.
Nabers will be a man possessed as he looks to take the rookie receptions record away from Brock Bowers. Bet on the LSU product to thrive against the Eagles backup secondary.
TB ranks 4th in EPA per play over the last six weeks, putting up 32.6 ppg in that time. Bet on the Bucs to roll in a must win contest.
As I wrote in my NFL Week 18 player incentives piece, Evans needs 85 yards and five receptions to get a $3M cheque. Bet on Evans to exceed those numbers against a brutal Saints secondary on Sunday.
With Marshon Lattimore in Washington, look for Evans to dominate the Saints in the red zone. He ate the Panthers alive last week, expect that to happen again.
As you're probably aware from our incentives article or this week's HUDDLE episode, Mike Evans has $3 million in incentives on the line if he can notch five catches and 85 receiving yards.
We've seen as little as $250k in incentives motivate players, so there's no doubt that $3 million will be on the mind of Evans and Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield. I'm expecting and inspired effort from Evans vs. a really bad secondary.
Bet placed at 10:27 am ET on Thursday, January 2.
As you're probably aware from our incentives article or this week's HUDDLE episode, Mike Evans has $3 million in incentives on the line if he can notch five catches and 85 receiving yards.
We've seen as little as $250k in incentives motivate players, so there's no doubt that $3 million will be on the mind of Evans and Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield. I'm expecting and inspired effort from Evans vs. a really bad secondary.
Bet placed at 10:27 am ET on Thursday, January 2.
Baker Mayfield vies to put a capstone on this historic season and Bucs win the NFC South if they win this game by one point -- I think they may win by 30.
The Saints have scored 19 points or fewer in five straight. They gave up a 51-burger to the Bucs earlier this year in a game that actually mattered in Week 6.
I like the Bucs every which way, sideways, Tampa Bay 31, New Orleans 13.
For more NFL Week 18 picks check out Anik vs Anik on YouTube.
While the AFC South has been locked up, the Texans reportedly plan to play their starters on Sunday in an effort to get out of their current offensive rut. Still, Houston ranks 31st in offensive success rate, and it’s tough to project immediate improvement given their massive struggles on the offensive line.
Meanwhile, the Titans face an uphill battle against an elite Texans defense, with Mason Rudolph and Will Levis expected to get snaps. It’s tough to project either offense to succeed in this Week 18 matchup.
See my full Texans vs Titans preview here.
The point spread in this game is an overreaction to the Brock Purdy injury. Purdy hasn't been playing well lately and behind a makeshift offensive line and presumed starter Joshua Dobbs fits nicely in this spot vs his old team.
San Francisco showed a lot of fight in their loss last week to Detroit and I fully expect them to hang tough vs. Arizona in this one.
Click here for my full analysis of the 49ers vs Cardinals game.
Bet placed at 8:46 pm ET on Dec. 31
The 49ers come in to Week 18 as the most disappointing team in football at 6-10.
Joshua Dobbs gets the star for San Fran -- all the rage last year with who? Oh, The Cardinals!
I think the familiarity helps Arizona exploit some weaknesses in his game.
Arizona is 10-6 ATS on the season and 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. Jonathan Gannon will prioritize playing a solid football game here against a banged up 49ers team, finish at 8-9, and give the fanbase some juice heading into 2025.
For more NFL Week 18 picks check out Anik vs Anik on YouTube.
As you're probably aware from our incentives article or this week's HUDDLE episode, Courtland Sutton needs just 82 receiving yards to bag another $500,000 in incentives.
In a game the Broncos need to win for a playoff berth, vs. a Chiefs team expected to rest its starters, this is a nice spot for Sutton to stack yards and put up a nice day with the help of Bo Nix who has been playing really well.
Bet placed at 10:32 am ET on Thursday, January 2.
The Broncos "win and they're in," but they should have already punched their ticket to the NFL postseason and not be sweating here. I think the Kansas City backups will have something to prove.
It's not gonna be as easy as it appears for the Broncos. While I expect Sean Payton and Bo Nix to find a way to win the game, I don't think the champs lay down for them at all, and stay inside the 10.5.
For more NFL Week 18 picks check out Anik vs Anik on YouTube.
While there has been no formal announcement that the Rams will be sitting their starters, that's ultimately what I think happens. Sean McVay has constantly prioritized rest and player health whether it's the preseason or this Week 18 scenario before the playoffs. And if anyone needs some rest it's the banged up Rams who have been dealing with injuries on the offensive side of the ball.
Seattle coach Mike Macdonald has made it clear that, even though his team is eliminated from playoff contention, starters will play. Furthermore, Seahawks QB Geno Smith has several lucrative contract incentives on the line so he'll be taking the game very seriously.
Click here for my full analysis of the Rams vs Seahawks game.
Bet placed at 10:02 am ET on Tuesday, Dec. 31
After a splitting their first four games of the season the Chargers have been a reliable bet, covering in nine of their last 12 games -- that's a 75% cover rate BABY!!!
Yes, the Raiders are on a two-game winning streak, knocking off the Jags and Saints over the last two weeks -- make of that what you will but I'm taking the Bolts.
See my full Chargers vs Raiders preview.
This is a play on competitors like Brock Bowers, Jacobi Myers, and Aidan O'Connell to makes the most of their opportunities against a Chargers outfit that is playing for seeding, but also trying to stay healthy.
If the Ravens and Steelers both win on Saturday, the Chargers are locked into a road date at Baltimore (Harbowl). So as far as a straight wager on this game, perhaps now is not the time if you like the Chargers.
I like the Raider to keep it close in what will be Antonio Pierce's final game as head coach.
For more NFL Week 18 picks check out Anik vs Anik on YouTube.
The Miami Dolphins need a win and a Denver Broncos loss on Sunday, but with Tyler Huntley at the helm, it’s challenging to have much confidence in them winning two straight games as a road favorite.
We typically see teams in must-win situations overvalued late in the year - since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks have gone 105-69-4 (60%) ATS. Back the Jets as the home underdog on Sunday.
See my full Dolphins vs Jets preview here.
All of the NFL betting trends point to this total going OVER. The Lions lead the NFL in points per game, with the Vikings not far behind.
However, nearly 80% of the early money is on the UNDER as sharps get their bets in before the public jumps in.
Make the contrarian play on this winner take all NFC North showdown. Check out my Vikings vs Lions betting preview for more.
The Lions are 45-21 ATS in the Dan Campbell era. That includes a mark of 11-5 this season and 25-11 dating back to last year.
I think Sam Darnold is more likely to make a crucial mistake than Jared Goff. Detroit is ready for this moment, and I think the momentum from last week's win at San Francisco actually helps it get over the hump here and earn that crucial bye week.
I am all in on Dan Campbell, so I'll lay the 3, in as good a Week 18 game as you could possibly dream up.
For more NFL Week 18 picks check out Anik vs Anik on YouTube.
My Best Bet Of The Week Vikings +3.
The Lions have won four straight in the series, that includes a 31-29 triumph in Minneapolis earlier this year. But Minnesota has won nine in a row, boast the better defense and healthier roster.
I believe when the dust settles at Ford Field, it'll be the Minnesota Vikings emerging as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
And remarkably, despite all the headlines, the Lions will be the five seed. Minnesota 34, Detroit 31.
For more NFL Week 18 picks check out Anik vs Anik on YouTube.
| Last 100 | To Win | ATS | Total O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ Units (Opening) | $590 | $1247 | -$1136 |
| $ Units (Closing) | $358 | $402 | -$155 |
| Record (Opening) | 67 - 33 | 60 - 38 - 2 | 46 - 50 - 4 |
| Record (Closing) | 67 - 33 | 53 - 44 - 3 | 50 - 47 - 3 |
For every matchup in an NFL season, our NFL computer produces selections for a variety of different betting angles. Our computer picks are based on a proprietary algorithm that values each team in the current week to produce moneyline, spread, and point total selections.
The table above (below the game picks) tracks our NFL computer's results over the last 100 games, outlining the record and profit for selections (based on $100 unit size). We track the profit based on both opening and closing lines for every matchup.
How to Use NFL Computer Picks
The easiest way to utilize our computer picks is to simply follow our selections for every matchup, what you'd call "tailing the computer." But, there are other ways to utilize our NFL computer picks, as well.
You can use our NFL computer as a jumping-off point to do more research into specific lines, cross-referencing with expert picks (which can be found above the selections for some matchups), recent NFL betting trends, and more.
As well, you can gauge the confidence of the matchup. The larger the projected score, the more confident the computer is in a specific pick.
Or, if you want to implement a system (betting only on underdogs, for example) you can look for matchups in which our computer likes the underdog to inform which picks you're going to hone in on for a given week.
We've got these computer picks for every sport you're looking to wager on, as well:
Odds Shark's Free Computer Picks
Moneyline
NFL moneyline moneyline picks are the simplest way to get in on the NFL action. All you have to do is simply bet on which team you think will win the game.
For moneyline picks, the favorite is represented with a minus sign (-) in front of the odds, while the underdog has a plus (+). However, you don't get the same profit for picking an underdog compared to a favorite. If the favored team is -120, a $100 bet on them would pay out $80 in profit and $180 total. The underdog winning at +150 would pay out a $150 profit, $250 total.
We've got a complete breakdown of how to read NFL moneyline odds for these NFL computer picks.
Spread
While moneyline picks are the simplest, picking NFL games against the spread is probably the most common wager for regular NFL bettors.
To bet an NFL spread, you wager on whether a team will win by a certain number of points or more or if they'll lose by fewer points than the spread. For example, if the spread is -6.5 for the New England Patriots, you would win the bet if they win the game by 7 points or more. Or if a team is +6.5, you're betting on if they'll win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.
There is a correlation between moneyline odds and the spread, as books set these lines based on the same information.
You can read more about NFL spreads here.
Totals (Over/Under)
If you aren’t entirely sold on which NFL team will win or cover in an NFL game, you can still use our NFL computer picks to bet on the point total.
As opposed to taking a side, in total or over/under betting you wager on whether both NFL teams will combine for a final score of more than (over) or less than (under) the total number of points set by oddsmakers.
The computer picks and your handicapping of totals are more about how you think both teams will score points, not which team has the edge to win.
More NFL Picks & Betting Tools
Our NFL Computer Picks are a great way to place weekly football wagers, but you should also consider handicapping games yourself using some of our other tools. We've got dedicated an NFL trends page, power rankings, and an NFL database for you to gauge the talent and value of each team. We've also got updated NFL scores and NFL prop picks on our NFL hub each week.
If you're looking to bet on long-term futures this football season, check out some of our other dedicated pages:
