NCAAF Computer Picks - Free College Football Predictions

Penn State is a solid team with a punishing run game. But, the Nittany Lions haven’t seen anything like SMU’s Kevin Jennings. He can run, throw, and do both at the same time. Jennings helped MSU come back from down 21-7 to Clemson to secure this spot in the playoff. He's just as capable of doing it again against Penn State — or at least enough to keep this game close.

Check out a full SMU vs Penn State preview here.

Penn State tight end Tyler Warren is always a threat, scoring 10 touchdowns on the season. He can score receiving or rushing, too.

With Penn State expected to win this game, they should have plenty of opportunity to score, and Warren is arguably the biggest scoring threat on the field whenever the Nittany Lions are near the goal line.

Check out a full SMU vs Penn State preview here.

Playing in the drop-back Big 10, Penn State hasn’t seen anything like Jennings, a dual-threat quarterback who ran and passed his way to 310 yards and four total TDs against Clemson. Jennings has rushed for five touchdowns this season, including two in his past three games, and will be the focal point of the Mustangs’ attack in State College.

Check out a full SMU vs Penn State preview here.

While Penn State fell short in the Big Ten Championship against Oregon, Drew Allar played one of his best games, flashing elite arm talent and physical upside that will excite NFL evaluators. SMU struggled to contain Cade Klubnik in the ACC Championship as the Clemson quarterback threw four touchdowns. With the benefit of extra time to prepare, expect offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to have a strong game plan as Allar leads Penn State to a decisive home win.

DISRESPECT. That can be the rocket fuel for a team that has been thrown under the bus, like SMU.

After the Mustangs lost to Clemson in the ACC title game, everyone, especially from the SEC was begging the committee to put Alabama in the final playoff spot.

Like the way that SMU came back from a 31-14 hole to lose by just three on a 56 yard FG. Not thrilled about laying 8 and a hook, but if the Mustangs are down big at the end of the first half, BUY the initials in the second half.

Trusting James Franklin to not choke in big games isn't easy to do, him falling Ohio State and Oregon this season just reiterates my point. SMU has a suffocating rush defense, allowing less than 100 yards per game, which should be enough to stifle Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Drew Allar has announced he will be returning to Penn State next year, which may dangerously unify him and the program even more. 

Still, this is the College Football Playoff. The Mustangs weren't even certain about clinching a spot and now, they have to prove they deserve to be there. I don't want to be responsible for undermining SMU, so I'm taking the underdog spread here.

A concerning first-round game for Texas, which struggles to cover spreads, struggles to blow out opponents, and has a starting quarterback in Quinn Ewers who doesn’t look 100 percent healthy. The Tigers sneaked into this playoff, but they’re loaded with great skill players and have a coach in Dabo Swinney who’s been through this kind of thing before.

While Clemson posted 34 points in a win over SMU in the ACC Championship, the underlying metrics were not kind, as the Tigers finished with 3.76 yards per play, ranking in the fifth percentile. The Tigers scored just three points against Georgia and 14 against South Carolina, their two SEC opponents this season. Texas boasts the second-ranked defense in EPA/play and should limit Clemson on the scoreboard.

Does anyone out there who watched the last two games that Texas played think this team is a double digit favorite? Not on this keyboard.

The Longhorns beat Texas A&M 17-7 then came up on the short end of a 22-19 score against Georgia in the SEC championship against a QB (Carson Beck) with his right arm dangling like a piece of spaghetti.

Dabo has brought his Tigers back from a devastating 34-3 loss to Georgia in the season opener, winning 10 of the last 12. Might not be a W here, but we'll throw a few peanuts at Clemson. 

My gut instinct says Texas should win this without a doubt. But, I really didn’t like how shaky Ewers looked in that SEC championship. Six sacks, pair of interceptions, lots of passing attempts but far from precise. We saw that same narrative in last season’s Sugar Bowl vs Washington. Can Ewers step up when it matters or is he prone to crumbling under pressure?

If the narrative of him succumbing to nerves continues, then I’d rather go for the point total set at 51.5 points. Texas has hit the UNDER in four-straight and Clemson has cashed the UNDER in seven of their last eight.

Sampson makes Tennessee’s offense go, and nobody’s been able to slow him down—the tailback went for 178 yards in the regular-season finale against Vanderbilt, racked up 101 yards against Georgia and hit 139 against Alabama. It’s a bad matchup for Ohio State, which was burned buy the run early against Indiana and late against Michigan.

d. Ohio State's defense should not be taken lightly, ranking as the No. 1 scoring defense while also allowing the fewest total yards (241.5). They've only allowed more than two touchdowns three times this year. 

I truly can see how this dub falls in either programs lap. Instead, I'm going for the UNDER set at 47.5-points. The Buckeyes have hit the UNDER in five of their last six while the Volunteers have also cashed the UNDER  in 4 of their last 5 games vs. top 25 scoring defenses.

See my Tennessee vs Ohio State preview for a full analysis.

Sampson is the heart and soul of Tennessee's ground attack, totalling 1,485 yards and 22 touchdowns across the regular season. The junior has eclipsed 90-yards in all but one meeting this year and has gone the extra mile by recording 101-yards or more in 10 performances. 

Sampson has faced four ranked teams this season but his stats didn't budge. He hung 101 yards on Georgia, 139 yards on Alabama, 92 yards on Oklahoma and 132 yards on NC State -- while scoring at least one touchdown in each of those meetings, too.

See my Tennessee vs Ohio State preview for a full analysis.

While many will expect Ohio State to bounce back after a shocking home loss to Michigan, Tennessee may expose its roster deficiencies again. The Volunteers boast an excellent defensive line led by James Pearce Jr. and Joshua Josephs, and the Buckeyes have suffered multiple injuries along the offensive line. Expect Tennessee to pressure Will Howard in the pocket all game, and so long as Nico Iamaleava keeps the turnovers in check, the Volunteers are live underdogs in this game.

We know that Peyton Manning will be in Columbus going nutzzz for his Volunteers. And why not. Sure Ohio State is talented and has home field, but Tennessee is averaging over 230 yards a game on the ground and the freshman kid at QB, Nico Iamaleava, brings a rocket right arm to the party.

Nico can also dance, gobbling up 311 yards on the ground this season. He has hit 19 TDs with just five INTs. And don't forget that the Vols BAGELED Iowa, another Big 10 team last year in the Citrus Bowl, 35-0.

Gimme Peyton and the Orange guys.

The Roadrunners have won three of their last four and covered in five of their last six, upsetting Memphis as a 6-point underdog and taking Army to the wire. Coastal Carolina has the home field, but the Chanticleers have won just two of their last seven and were regularly blown out by the better teams on their schedule.

Both of the quarterbacks that Coastal Carolina used this year - Noah Kim and Ethan Vasko - have hit the transfer portal, and redshirt freshman Tad Hudson is expected to make his first career start with zero snaps at the college level. He’ll likely struggle against UTSA’s defense that ranks sixth in success rate, and the Roadrunners can take advantage of a poorly ranked Coastal run defense.

Coastal is the ONLY bowl team that will actually play on its home field in a bowl game. Winner right? Not so fast.

The Chanticleers, maybe my favorite college nickname, have issues at quarterback. Starting QB Ethan Vasko and backup Noah Kim have BOTH entered the evil transfer portal. Gotta wait on the news about the starting QB for Coastal before opening the wallet. But if Vasko does suit up, we will tickle the chandeliers, oops, Chanticleers.

Losing two quarterbacks isn't always comforting from a betting perspective. But, head coach Tim Beck isn't phased. Beck, though in just his second year with Coastal Carolina, is looking to add onto his current 1-0 SU/ATS bowl record. He took to media to say that players are excited to get a chance to take the field, including QB Tad Hudson -- who will make his first college football start. Luckily for him, UTSA's passing defense (286.9 YPG) is the seventh-worst in the nation.

Northern Illinois beat Notre Dame as a 27.5-point road underdog and has covered in just two games since. Fresno State has covered in three of its last five against a schedule that included competitive losses to UCLA and Washington State. Lots of players from both teams have hit the transfer portal, including both starting quarterbacks.

Both teams in this game will be without significant offensive pieces. Fresno State will be without starting quarterback Mikey Keene and two of its top three pass-catchers. Northern Illinois will be without starting quarterback Ethan Hampton and lead receiver Trayvon Rudolph. All that means the under is the look in a game with two well-coached defenses and two offenses missing key pieces.

QB Mikey Keene leads the charge for the Fresno State Bulldogs and he had a pretty solid year in the air. Keene is hitting at a ridiculous 70.5%, has gobbled up 2,892 yards with 18 TDs and 11 INTs.

If Mikey plays a clean game, then Fresno should be the king of potatoes. And since Northern is only 1-5-1 as a favorite this season and has a shocking 3-15-1 record as a fav since 2022, we're goin' to the pound and jumping on the Bulldogs.

Both sides have lost their fair share of starters to the transfer portal. Mikey Keene and Ethan Hampton have left their teams, Keene is currently visiting Ole Miss while Hampton has committed to Wake Forest. So, who is even playing for these teams?

With all these players missing, the point total has dropped to an insecure 40.5 points. Fresno State has won five-straight bowl games, going 4-1 ATS and averaging 32.2 PPG while allowing just 17.4 PPG. So, I'll roll with the Bulldogs experience against this small spread. 

Former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo worked a little magic with 7-5 San Jose State, which beat Stanford and Oregon State, and lost by two points at Washington State as a 13-point underdog. South Florida beat up on the dregs of the American Athletic Conference, and doesn’t own a victory over an FBS opponent with a winning record.

South Florida has been without starting quarterback Byrum Brown since Week 5, and its offense has struggled, ranking 118th in EPA/play. San Jose State has an excellent run defense, and it should find success through the air, especially if wide receiver phenom Nick Nash plays. Back the Spartans as Ken Niumatalolo will have his team ready for its final game of the year.

If you're living on the East coast and never chose to stay up late for a San Jose State game, gotta give you some info on the Spartans QB Walker Eget.

Throw out the game against UNLV, a 27-16 loss, because it was a lousy, rainy, stormy night. In the three other November games, he has thrown for 1,226 yards (408 per game), with eight TDs.

As long as Walker's right arm is slinging in Honolulu, we KNOW the way to San Jose, and to the Bank of Ecks. 

Is Byrum Brown going to play in the Hawai'i Bowl? That is the million-dollar question. Reports have come out that the junior is getting "healthier" as the team preps for their third-straight bowl appearance. 

San Jose's middling defense (395.5 YPG) has lost a few starters to the portal. Also, the Spartans trip to the Hawai'i Bowl last season ended in a 24-14 loss to Coastal Carolina. In fact, they haven't won a bowl game in a decade. 

I'm banking on Brown playing and even if he doesn't, I'm calling San Jose's defense to get exposed. 

Pitt started 7-0 but dropped five straight to end the regular season, covering in just one of those games. Quarterback Nate Yarnell, who took over after starter Eli Holstein suffered a head injury, has entered the transfer portal. Toledo faded at the finish, dropping three of its last five, but has enough athletes to make this a game.

Toledo’s offense struggled all year on a down-to-down basis, ranking second-worst in rushing EPA and relying on explosiveness to survive. Pitt, meanwhile, could be without its top two quarterbacks. Eli Holstein missed the finale due to an injury, while Nate Yarnell is in the transfer portal. Both offenses could struggle to get rolling in this one.

Both teams come in at 7-5 and but there's a question mark surrounding Pittsburgh's starting QB Eli Holstein. He suffered an ankle injury in the game against Syracuse and Pitt DID NOT win a game the rest of the season after going 7-0.

Not only is QB an issue, the rushing game has totally evaporated. Pitt ran the ball 26 times for TWENTY THREE yards against BC. Check on Holstein. If he is out, we gotta buy some Rocket Fuel.

In the driver’s seat to reach the Big 12 title game at midseason, Kansas State faded badly—the Wildcats lost three of their last four, and covered in just one of their last five. And yet K-State’s stout rush defense remains a bad matchup for a Rutgers team that relies almost exclusively on the run game.

Rutgers’ run defense ranks 130th in EPA/rush allowed, while Kansas State boasts one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in the country spearheaded by quarterback Avery Johnson and running back D.J. Giddens. The Scarlet Knights will always be well prepared under Greg Schiano and have strong special teams, but if Johnson and Giddens play, they should lead the Wildcats to a win and cover.

Big number for a Kansas State team that has lost three of its last four to close the season. Rutgers has won three of its last four and head coach Greg Schiano knows how to get his team ready for a bowl game.

Last season, the Scarlet Knights STUNK up the tail end of the season, and limped into the Pinstripe Bowl against Miami-Florida on an 0-4 run. Schiano had a month to get his kids ready, and they beat the Hurricanes 31-24. Gimme some Scarlet.

Led by former Missouri quarterback Connor Bazelak, Bowling Green put real scares into both Penn State and Texas A&M—losing by seven and six, respectively—and finished the regular season by winning five of six. Arkansas State won four of its last six, but simply can’t match the Falcons’ overall body of work.

Early reports suggest that Bowling Green will have a full deck in terms of starters playing in this game, including standout tight end Harold Fannin Jr., who finished with over 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns. Arkansas State has a dreadful defense, ranking 133rd in success rate, so expect Bowling Green to hang a big number on its way to a decisive win.

After going bowling at the end of last season and losing to Minnesota 30-24, Bowling Green and head coach Scott Loeffler are hunting a W.

Bowling QB Connor Bazelak has had a solid senior campaign, hitting on 67% of his passes for 2,654 yards with 15 TDs and five INTs. He throws to a SUPERSTAR TE, Harold Fannin, who has caught 100 balls for 1,342 yards and nine TDs and could go in the first round of the NFL draft.

Bowling for dollars with Bowling Green. 

The Sooners cratered to a 2-5 finish and then lost a raft of players to the transfer portal—among them quarterback Jackson Arnold, who started nine games. Navy finished by winning three of four both outright and against the spread, and has a quarterback in Blake Horvath who can completely take over a game—just ask Army.

Service academy teams are always a good bet during bowl season - does Oklahoma really care about preparing for the triple option after a disappointing regular season in the SEC? A slew of talented Sooners players are in the transfer portal along with multiple potential opt-outs for NFL Draft considerations. Back the Midshipmen as underdogs and don’t be shocked by an outright upset.

Navy will have almost two weeks to rest after the 31-13 win against Army. And one thing you don't have to worry about is opt outs. NO ONE opts out of the Navy. EVER!

Not the case on the Oklahoma sideline where starting QB Jackson Arnold has already announced his move to Auburn. That means the Sooners will turn to backup Michael Hawkins and his numbers ain't good (48/77 for 536 yards, with one TD and two INTs).

If the line stays at a seven and a hook, we would swim a few laps with Navy.

The Commodores faded a bit at the end, dropping their last three games and getting completely outclassed by South Carolina and Tennessee. Georgia Tech knocked off Miami as an 8.5-point underdog, and then went eight overtimes before narrowly losing to 17-point favorite Georgia. In a game pitting two tough, dual-threat quarterbacks, the Jackets have a bit more punch.

Quarterbacks Haynes King and Diego Pavia are expected to play in this game, which means we should see fireworks in Birmingham. Both offenses ranked top-30 in passing EPA this season, while both defenses rank 90th or worse in PFF’s coverage grading. Back the over in what should be an exciting matchup between these two high-scoring outfits.

Props to Vandy for bouncing back from a 2-10 record in 2023 to post a 6-6 record this season. But it ain't gonna be enough to handle Tech.

The Yellow Jackets REALLY IMPRESSED me in their final game, a 44-42 loss to Georgia in OT. Tech QB Haynes King was exceptional, completing 26 of 36 for 303 yards with two TDs against a nasty Bulldog D.

Oh yea, he also gobbled up 110 yards on the ground. STUD! The Ramblin' Wreck is my BEST BET on the bowl board. Enjoy!

The Red Raiders were a fairly reliable cover, beating the spread in seven of their final 10 regular-season games. Arkansas dropped three of its last four, and covered just twice in its final six regular-season contests. The Razorbacks also have their top receiver and two starting defensive linemen opting out of the bowl game for the NFL.

Tons of starting Arkansas players have hit the transfer portal, including three starting offensive linemen and multiple key defensive starters. Star wide receiver Andrew Armstrong has also opted out. Texas Tech boasts an exciting offense, ranking top-50 in EPA/pass and EPA/rush, and it should have success against a shorthanded Arkansas defense.

GINORMOUS line move in this game. Arkansas opened up as a -3 point favorite and with a FLOOD of Texas Tech money, the Red Raiders are now +1. Why? The Razorbacks area leaving in DROVES. Almost 24 players have entered the portal, with some of their best just prepping for the NFL.

Three starters, C Addison Nichols, G Joshua Braun and G Patrick Kutas are all bye bye. Tech has exploded for 108 points the last two games and should cook these Hogs. 

Washington State dropped three straight to end the regular season, losing all of them to double-digit underdogs—and closing with a thud against 3-9 Wyoming. Meanwhile, Syracuse with top-10 Heisman vote-getter Kyle McCord at quarterback finished by winning three straight, including a home victory over 12-point favorite Miami, and covered five of its last eight.

Assuming Washington State quarterback John Mateer hits the transfer portal, Syracuse is the clear side here. The Orange look to be largely intact for this game, with head coach Fran Brown saying, “we don’t opt out around here.” The Cougars, meanwhile, have a slew of top players in the transfer portal. After a strong season that led to a top-10 finish in Heisman voting, expect Kyle McCord to lead Cuse to a big bowl win.

LOVE the Syracuse head coach Fran Brown. If you're not familiar, this is his first year with the Orange after spending two years on Kirby Smart's staff at Georgia.

'Cuse closed the season with three straight wins on the strength of Kyle McCord's right arm (71% completion rate with 1,173 yards, six TDs and zero INT). Coach Brown said he expects everybody on Syracuse to play, including McCord. His quote, “We don’t opt out around here.” Color me ORANGE!

Washington State is being shredded by the transfer portal, losing 18 players and seven of which were starters. Heck, the Cougars even lost their punter! Staring quarterback John Mateer, who led college football with 44 total touchdowns, jumped in the portal less than 10 days out from kick off. 

However, the Orange haven't covered a double-digit favored spread once this season. But, they've hit the OVER in two of thse three instances they were 10-plus point favorites and have cashed the OVER in four of their last five.

See my full Holiday Bowl preview for more.

The Trojans regained some footing at the end of the regular season, winning two of their last three both outright and ATS after installing Jayden Maiava as starting quarterback. Texas A&M benefitted from a weak schedule to start 7-1, but dropped three of its last four and has covered just once since early October.

USC ends its season where it started, back in Las Vegas, but the Trojans will be without several players who it began the year with. Still, Texas A&M defensive linemen Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart have opted out, meaning USC’s Jayden Maiava will be facing a much worse version of the Aggies’ pass rush. Back Lincoln Riley to rally the troops in this spot with the Trojans playing close to home.

Losing a quarterback, a top three running back and wide receiver is just the beginning of USC's transfer portal woes. 

According to our bowl season trends, when a line is set at 3.5-points or fewer entering the Las Vegas Bowl, the favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine outings. Given the progression of Lincoln Riley, whose overall records have slowly gotten worse under his three-year tenure, I don't think I trust USC here. At least the Aggies have some sparkle to their resume, those two top-10 ranked wins aren't something to quickly overlook.

See the full Las Vegas Bowl preview here. 

Southern Cal didn't break the bank for Lincoln Riley to be just average and post a 6-6 record. But it looks like Riley has a talent at QB in Jayden Maiava.

Despite losing the last game to Notre Dame, Maiava lit up the board for 35 points, completing 27 of 49 for 360 yards and three TDs against very, VERY good Irish defense.

And with A&M's two best defensive linemen and probably first round draft picks out (Shemar Stewart and Nic Scourton), Jayden should bark all the way to the bank.

For all the Bill Belichick hype, for now this remains a North Carolina team under an interim coach that finished 3-6, has covered the spread only twice all year, and saw top rusher Omarion Hampton opt out. Yet UNC should still have enough to subdue a UConn team that lost to Wake Forest and was blown out by Maryland.

This is just UConn’s second bowl game since 2015, and they should enter this game with a clear edge in motivation against a North Carolina team waiting for the Bill Belichick era to begin. Tar Heels running back Omarion Hampton is a likely opt-out candidate as he prepares for the NFL Draft, which would leave an already limited offense without its best player.

From Mack Brown to Freddie Kitchens to Bill Belichick. Brown is gone, Kitch is the interim and Double B is coming to town next season.

Jim Mora IS in town and has guided the Huskies to an 8-4 record with four wins in the last five games. QB Joe Fagnano is playing solid ball while RB Cam Edwards gobbled up 142 yards on the ground in his final regular season game. UConn is the ticket

A shift to Grayson James at quarterback propelled Boston College to three wins in its final four games, including an upset of Syracuse. The Eagles have also covered in five straight. Nebraska meanwhile limped to the finish, dropping four of its last five and securing bowl eligibility only after beating a bad Wisconsin team.

Boston College will benefit from more of a home atmosphere at Yankees Stadium in this game, with Nebraska making the trip east without several top defensive players who have entered the transfer portal. The Eagles uncovered more of a passing game identity late in the year as Grayson James took over as the starter, and he should lead a successful attack against a Huskers team that lost defensive coordinator Tony White.

Two ex-NFL guys going at each other in NYC at Yankee Stadium. Nebraska's Matt Ruhle, two plus years with the Panthers, brings his Cornhuskers to the Stadium with five ugly losses in the last six games.

Bill O'Brien, six plus years with the Texans, brings his Eagles to the Bronx on a heater, winning three of the last four games straight up and on a FIVE & OH run against the spread. Flying with the Eagles.

The Ragin’ Cajuns went 10-3 and covered five of their last seven regular-season games, but also lost quarterback Ben Wooldridge—the Sun Belt Player of the Year—to a broken collarbone in the conference championship game. That’s bad news against TCU, which has won and covered in three straight, including over playoff-bound Arizona State.

TCU won five of its last six games of the season, but it took advantage of a fairly easy schedule. In this game, it will face a Louisiana offense that ranked 13th in EPA/pass this season behind excellent play from quarterback Ben Wooldridge. He should be able to return from the injury that kept him out at the end of the year, which makes Louisiana a live underdog in this game.

This game revolves around the QB situation at Louisiana. The Ragin' Cajuns original starting QB Ben Wooldridge has been out since November 16 against South Alabama. His No. 2, Chandler Fields, was banged up in the Sun Belt title game against Marshall, a 31-3 loss.

Daniel Beale, No. 3 on the depth chart, and a true freshman was forced into action and completed only 9 of 24 for 95 yards with NO TDs and one INT. Not thrilled laying double digits, but gotta hop with the Horned Frogs.

Will two teams that dreamed of the College Football Playoff be content to vie for a toaster trophy? Give us the tighter ship run by Matt Campbell at Iowa State, which won three straight before falling in the Big 12 title game, over a mercurial Miami outfit that dropped two of its last three to underdogs. 

While Cam Ward has said he will play in this game, I’d still be surprised to see the likely top-five NFL Draft pick suit up in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, especially after Miami fully expected to reach the College Football Playoff this season. It sounds like Iowa State will have its seniors in tow for this game, and with Rocco Becht returning for another season, back the Cyclones here.

Miami was on target for a spot in the College Football Playoffs before a stunning 42-38 loss at Syracuse in the season finale.

Heisman Trophy finalist, QB Cam Ward, was not the problem. Ward was 25 of 36 (69.4%) for 349 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Cam has been rocking & rolling all season, gobbling up 4,123 air yards with THIRTY SIX TDs. And after looking at the Cyclones last game, a 45-19 blowout at the hands of Arizona State, gotta have the 'Canes for the money.

Star Colorado State wide receiver Tory Horton suffered a season-ending injury this year, but that didn’t stop the Rams from covering seven straight games at one point this season. After Miami OH got crushed in the MAC title game, it’s fair to wonder about their motivation level in this game. Take the points with the Rams playing closer to home.

Not only is this the Arizona Bowl, it's the SNOOP DOGG Arizona Bowl! My short term goal in life is to have a bowl named after me. Just saying.

Colorado State has won six of its last seven games straight up and has covered seven of the last eight with one push. Rams QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi was electric in the last game, hitting 31 of 46 (67.4%) for 370 yards and four TDs. This dog is gonna bark all the way to the Bank Of Ecks!

Colorado State overcame the loss of its top receiver to finish 6-1 and cover in seven of its last nine. Miami earned a quality win over a good Bowling Green team, but was drilled by Ohio in the MAC championship as a 2-point favorite, and has covered just twice in its last five outings.

The Pirates finished 4-1 under interim coach Blake Harrell, who has recently been named the full-time head coach. Katin Houser has had a strong season in a gunslinger role in the Pirates’ offense and can exploit a secondary that has given up big plays at times. NC State has lost four straight bowl games under Dave Doeren, so East Carolina might be live for the outright upset against its in-state rival.

Tasty intrastate matchup with these two separated by about 260 miles. East Carolina is the underdog, the little brother in this matchup. But little bro is rocking. With the exception of a loss to Navy, the Pirates final month was very profitable.

They won four in a row by an average of 19 points per game. And since the Wolfpack have covered only one of five as a favorite this season, we're gonna be facing East baby!

What a turnaround for East Carolina—the Pirates after a rough start fired coach Mike Houston, promoted Blake Herrel to interim, and installed Michigan State transfer Katin Houser at quarterback. The result has been a 4-1 finish, with three covers over that span, and enough to hang with a Wolfpack team that’s dropped two of three.

Head coach Deion Sanders has said he expects all of his players to be active for this game, and if that’s the case, we’re backing Colorado here. Heisman-winning dynamo Travis Hunter makes big-time plays on both sides of the ball, while Shedeur Sanders was one of the best quarterbacks in the country this season. Back the Buffaloes to come through with a win in primetime.

Not quite sure why Shedeur Sanders was not one of the finalists for the Heisman Trophy. His numbers were comparable to Oregon's Dillon Gabriel.

Sanders completed an astounding 74.2% of his passes for 3,926 yards with 35 TDs. Gabriel completed 73.2% of his passes for 3,558 yards with 28 TDs. I REST my case.

Shedeur could very well be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft, and with Colorado covering NINE of the last TEN (90%), gotta ride with the Buffaloes.

Both Heisman winner Travis Hunter and quarterback Shedeur Sanders have pledged to play for Colorado, which won five of its last six and covered in nine of its last 10. Big 12 mate BYU, which the Buffs didn’t play during the regular season, lost two of its last three and has failed to cover in five of six.

Army has been one of the biggest stories of this season, plowing through its schedule with the exception of a 49-14 blowout loss to playoff-bound Notre Dame and a rather surprising 31-13 loss to 6-point underdog Navy. 

No question, seeing Army get whipped by archival Navy was a head-scratcher. But the Midshipmen are a 9-win team with a very efficient offense—and the same cannot be said for Louisiana Tech. While Army has failed to cover its last two games as a double-digit favorite, the Black Knights remain the only play against a Louisiana Tech squad that beat just one FCS team that finished with a winning record.

Not quite scraping the bottom of the proverbial barrel, but close. Army was all set to play Marshall in this bowl, but the Thundering Herd lost over 25 players in the portal and could not field a competitive team. So Tech steps on to the field in Shreveport, just an hour from their campus in Ruston, Louisiana.

However, the Bulldogs come in with an UGLY 5-7 record and even with home state advantage, will not be able to stop the Long Grey Line from posting a W.

Marshall pulled out of this game because it lost much of its team to the transfer portal after the school’s decision not to extend the contract of coach Charles Huff. The fill-in Bulldogs are among the lowest-scoring teams in America, and now face an 11-2, option-oriented service academy on short notice.

While running back Kaleb Johnson has opted out, Iowa should have quarterback Brendan Sullivan back for this game. He looked like their best option under center all season. Missouri will be without star wide receiver Luther Burden, while quarterback Brady Cook is a potential opt-out. Take the points with the Hawkeyes’ excellent defense and special teams.

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has not decided on who will quarterback his team, picking between Jackson Stratton and Brendan Sullivan, with a lean toward Sullivan.

None of those problems exist on the Missouri sideline where Brady Cook has led the Tigers to a solid 9-3 record in the rugged SEC.

Mizzou has also covered six of its last seven, and is one of the most profitable teams on the college board, covering 16 of the last 23. 

Despite injuries that limited quarterback Brady Cook at the end of the regular season, Missouri still managed to win three of its last four and cover every game in that span. The Tigers won’t have star receiver Luther Burden, who’s opting out for the NFL draft—but the Hawkeyes won’t have 1,500-yard rusher Kaleb Johnson for the same reason.

It sounds like Jalen Milroe and other Alabama stars will play in this game before preparing for the NFL Draft, but that’s a fluid situation that must be monitored. At the current number, Michigan is the side, even with stars Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Will Johnson likely opting out.

Props to Michigan for squeezing out a 13-10 win over hated rival Ohio State, but this Alabama team is gonna bring a whole different set of problems to the dinner table.

And the main course is Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe who has passed for 2,652 yards and gobbled up 719 on the ground.

Not gonna hit this game too hard because we're hearing some chatter about Milroe declaring for the NFL draft. No Milroe, NO money from Ecks.

A slew of Michigan players are opting out of this game to enter the NFL draft—running back Donovan Edwards, tight end Colston Loveland, defensive tackle Mason Graham and cornerback Will Johnson among them. Quarterback Jalen Milroe plans to suit up for an Alabama squad that’s covered four of its last five.

Freshman quarterback Demond Williams Jr. made the start in Washington’s finale against Oregon, throwing for 201 yards and a touchdown. While he took a whopping ten sacks, he showed athletic potential that Huskies fans can get excited about. With Washington installed as short underdogs, back Williams to lead the Huskies to a win against a Louisville team also playing a backup quarterback.

First look was to Louisville with an 8-4 record and the dynamic Tyler Shough at QB. Sadly, Shough has opted out and it looks like the Cardinals will go with backup Harrison Bailey.

Washington comes in at just 6-6 but the Huskies have played a BRUTAL schedule. Their last three losses were to Oregon, Penn State and Indiana, ALL TOP TEN teams. Not really thrilled with this game, so if you're investing, keep it REAL light. Husky light.

South Carolina was playing as well as anyone in the country over the last couple of months, winning six straight games to close the regular season, including a drubbing of Texas A&M. Illinois, meanwhile, was overvalued for much of the year, and the Gamecocks should produce a ton of pressure on Luke Altmyer who has struggled from a crowded pocket.

LaNorris Sellers for South Carolina against Luke Altmyer from Illinois.

Sellers will be in the mix for the Heisman next season because of a game like he had against Clemson (13/21 passing and 166 yards rushing).

Altmyer didn't see much light in two years at Ole Miss, but in Champaign, he has gone to work, passing for 2,543 yards and 21 TDs.

Just a tickle to the Illini, but if you start to hear that some of the talented defensive kids on the Gamecocks are thinking about the portal, or an opt out, bump the bet and gimme more of that dog.

While LSU will have Garrett Nussmeier playing in this game, the Tigers have a ton of players opting out or hitting the transfer portal, including top offensive tackle Will Campbell and top wide receiver CJ Daniels. Baylor’s roster is intact for this game, and it won six straight to close out the season. Back the Bears to continue that momentum.

Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has committed to play, but LSU is losing several other players including its starting left tackle and a top wide receiver. LSU has dropped three of five and covered just once over that span, while Baylor has won and covered six straight and has far fewer opt-outs.

Gotta respect a pair of sixes. We're talking about Baylor and the way that the Bears finished the season. They won six in a row and covered six in a row. And you can credit the arm of Baylor QB Sawyer Robinson who has thrown for 17 TDs, yea, SEVENTEEN during that stretch.

Just saw that the Bayou Bengals have lost both starting offensive tackles and their tight end. They all declared early for the NFL Draft. Before they hibernate for the winter, Bears will bring a W to the cave.

Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy is transferring to Auburn and Grayson Loftis is in the portal, leaving Henry Belin IV to make the start. That would be a huge concern against a full-strength Ole Mis squad, but with opt-outs looming, Duke can lean on the run game and its defense to cover the number in this game.

That’s a big line, but it’s somewhat justified given that Duke recently lost starting quarterback Maalik Murphy and his backup Grayson Loftis to the transfer portal. Ole Miss ended the regular season winning four or its last five, although the Rebels haven’t covered against a double-digit spread since early October. 

Follow the money. Ole Miss opened up at -12.5, inched up to -13.5, then when the news hit that Duke starting QB Maalik Murphy committed to Auburn, the line jumped all the way to -15.5. Why?

Double M has been stellar this season for the Blue Devils, hitting on over 60% of his passes for 2,933 yards and 26 TDs. Murphy is gone and his backup, Grayson Loftis is a question mark. That leaves Henry Belin IV, who has a grand total of ONE pass for SEVEN yards.

Not excited about laying double digits, so just a light lean to the Rebels.   

Neither defense in this game can stop a nosebleed. North Texas ranks 93rd in EPA/play on defense, while Texas State ended the year allowing 52 and 38 points in its last two games. The Mean Green will have a new quarterback as the starter with Chandler Morris in the portal, but you can trust both coaching staffs to have strong offensive game plans, regardless of who is suiting up.

Texas State has won three of four both outright and ATS, while North Texas has dropped five of six and hasn’t covered since Oct. 19. Talk about a bad matchup: the Mean Green allow an average of 456 yards per game, most in the FBS, while the Bobcats’ offense averages 474 yards per game, fifth-best in the nation.

More portal. And more money moves.

Texas State opened up at -7.5 points over North Texas and then news hit that North starting QB Chandler Morris is gonna say bye bye.

That leaves freshman Drew Mestemaker under center, and in four games this season, Drew has thrown exactly four passes. State has put 180 points on the board over the last month (45 per game), and as long as Jordan McCloud is slinging, we gotta have a taste of the Bobcats.

The Golden Gophers were one of the most underrated teams in the Power Five this season, boasting an excellent defense ranked top-30 in EPA/pass and EPA/rush allowed. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, will enter this game without several key players on both sides of the ball, and quarterback Kyron Drones could remain out with an injury. Back the Gophers as the more intact team on the heels of a quietly impressive season.

Virginia Tech closed the regular season by losing three of four both outright and ATS, and was reduced to using a third-string quarterback in the finale due to injuries to the top two QBs on the depth chart. Minnesota has won five of seven, has covered in seven of eight, and coach P.J. Fleck is unbeaten in bowl games.

Gotta tell you why I am an idiot. Put a chunk of change on Virginia Tech to win the National Championship at like 250/1. Sadly, that will now be a donation to my favorite sportsbook.

Tech lost QB1 Kyron Drones and QB2 Collin Schlee. Now they'll have to send freshman William Watson out to fight Minnesota. Not over the moon about this game, but after watching the Golden Gophers cover seven of the last eight, Minny is worth a few pennies.

Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter has hit the transfer portal, and it’s fair to wonder what the Flames’ motivation level is after aspirations of an undefeated season and a spot in the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, Pete Lembo had a ton of success in his first year, and he should lead Buffalo to a win out in the Bahamas.

Quarterback Kaidon Slater, who’s passed for 4,700 yards and 47 touchdowns the past two years at Liberty, left a gaping hole in the Flames’ offense when he entered the transfer portal. Buffalo meanwhile has won four straight, covering in three of those, and has far fewer opt-outs than its opponent in Nassau.

After clocking in on all 38 bowl games, think that Ecks needs to fly to the Bahamas to watch this bowl. And ya gotta think that the kids from Buffalo, where they had like five feet of snow a few weeks ago, are gonna be JACKED to get some sun.

They have also closed the season with four straight wins. Bulls QB C.J. Ogbonna has been on fire, throwing 11 TDs in his last four games and we just heard that Liberty's starting QB, Kaidon Salter, ain't gonna play. Buffs will cash this ticket.