Despite Sportsbook the season with a 2-7 record and already sitting 5.5 games back in the NL Central, the Chicago Cubs open as a moneyline favorite against the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon at Wrigley Field. The 5-3 Pirates are paying anywhere from +105 to +120 as an underdog, depending on where you shop. The total opened at 7.5.
Standout Stats
- The Pirates are 7-3 SU in the last 10 games started by Jameson Taillon. He picked up a no-decision after seven strong innings in his season debut vs St. Louis.
- Jon Lester has surrendered three home runs and has a 1.25 WHIP through two starts. The current Pittsburgh roster is 52-for-212 lifetime vs Lester for a .245 average and .675 OPS.
- Chicago has the No. 3 scoring offense in MLB with 62 runs (6.9 per game) scored. They’re also No. 2 in hits with 10.6 per game. The Cubs are No. 4 in the NL in home runs with 17 while the Pirates are serving up 1.25 homers per game.
- Cubs pitchers have issued an NL-leading 53 walks, 26 from the starters and 27 from the relievers. Pirates hitters are in the middle of the pack in the National League with 35 walks.
- This Cubs roster is hitting .320 with a .965 OPS vs Jameson Taillon. In his eight career starts vs the Cubs, the Pirates are 5-3 with the OVER/UNDER split at 4-4. In three previous games with a closing total of 7.5, the OVER has hit in each game.
- This will be Taillon’s ninth start against the Cubs in his career and the fourth time that Jon Lester has been his opponent. Pittsburgh is 2-1 in the first three games and 1-0 at Wrigley. The Pirates were 3-0 in Taillon’s three starts vs Chicago last year.
- It is forecasted to be clear with a light breeze and 63 degrees at first pitch this afternoon. The weather conditions shouldn’t be an issue today.
- Pittsburgh has won four games in a row with an average winning margin of 1.75 runs. The Cubs have lost seven of their last eight games and have a -17 run differential during that stretch. Chicago’s pitching staff has the worst ERA in Major League Baseball at 7.51.
My Pick for Pirates vs Cubs
Pittsburgh moneyline
Jon Lester pitching in the home opener is likely enough to get the Cubs in the favorite position for this game, however, statistically speaking, it doesn’t make a lot of betting sense. The Pirates’ team ERA of 2.76 is tops in the National League and No. 4 overall.
Lester had a 3.71 ERA at Wrigley last season as opposed to 2.87 on the road. Additionally, he had a 3.78 ERA in day games vs 2.93 at night. I think Pittsburgh will keep this close and pull ahead in the late innings.
