No.1 Louisville faces Kentucky for In-State Supremacy

It’s a high-powered matchup when in-state rivals Louisville and Kentucky square off against each other. Kentucky has covered the spread in seven of the last eight matchups, but the Wildcats have been underwhelming so far this season — and Louisville has been one of the nation’s top teams.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

While Louisville is 11-1, they haven’t really been tested on the road. Kentucky has struggled as of late, but they’re still getting the respect of a marquee program as they opened as one-point home favorites. The total was set at 132 points, as Louisville has an elite defense and Kentucky’s offense has struggled to shoot.

Louisville News & Notes

With a rotation composed almost entirely of upperclassmen, Louisville has jumped out to a strong start this season with an 11-1 record.

The Cardinals’ calling card is a suffocating defense that allows the fourth-lowest opponent field goal percentage and the 15th-fewest points per game. Louisville has questions on offense, however, as besides Jordan Nwora’s 21.2 points per game, there is not a lot of consistency in their secondary scoring — which has resulted in four of their last six games playing to the UNDER.

Louisville already has one win against a ranked opponent under their belt, but Saturday is their toughest matchup yet, as they play on the road against Kentucky, where they have lost five straight games.

The Cardinals have also played just one actual road game this season and have won just one of their last five road games overall dating back to last year, so this is a big matchup for Louisville to prove they truly are one of the elite programs in the country this season.

Kentucky News & Notes

Through only about a third of the season, it’s already been an up-and-down year for the Wildcats. They started the year off with a victory over top-ranked Michigan State, then shortly after lost to Evansville at home, then followed that with a six-game winning streak before losing their last two games to Utah and Ohio State.

The result is a Kentucky program currently sitting as the 18th-seed, but what’s more alarming is their seemingly mediocre metrics; they’re near the middle of the pack in scoring and rebounding per game and are only 32nd in the nation in scoring defense. Their pedestrian indicators unsurprisingly have resulted in the Wildcats going just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.

While a battle against one of the nation’s top defenses may be trouble for a struggling Kentucky offense, they do get a boost with the return of forward Nate Sestina, who scored 17 points against Ohio State in his return from a broken left wrist.

Betting Pick: UNDER 132

Two offenses with lots of question marks, a tenacious Louisville defense and an in-state rivalry. This sounds like a low-scoring game to me, which means I like the UNDER.