The No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks return to the Allen Fieldhouse to play host to the No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs. Kansas swept last year’s two-game season series against TCU but is coming off a 77-60 loss at Iowa State four days ago. Meanwhile, TCU has claimed victory in each of its last nine games, but it is the Jayhawks who are 6.5-point favorites in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 151 points.
- TCU is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games.
- Kansas is 9-0 SU but 3-6 ATS in its nine home games this season.
- The total has gone OVER in five of TCU’s last six games (avg. combined score: 153.5).
Jayhawks are dealing with a key injury
Kansas suffered a big blow in its 70-63 victory over then-No. 23 Oklahoma a week ago as junior center Udoka Azubuike suffered a season-ending injury to his right wrist – last season he had the same injury to his left wrist. The Nigeria native was averaging 13.4 points per game, while also adding 6.8 rebounds. His ppg were the third-most on the team and his boards per game were the second-most, while he also chipped in 1.6 blocks per game to lead the squad. The Jayhawks averaged 83.1 ppg with Azubuike in the lineup, but are scoring just 72.4 ppg in the five games that he has missed so far.
Overall, they are scoring an average of 79.3 ppg to rank 45th in the nation, with the majority of their damage coming from inside the arc as they are only getting 25.7 percent of their points from triples, the 46th-lowest percentage in college basketball. Defensively, Kansas is surrendering 69.9 points per game with that average dropping to 65.6 at the Allen Fieldhouse. However, ball possession has been a bit of an issue as the Jayhawks average 13.7 turnovers per game to rank 179th out of 353 teams and had a season-high 24 turnovers last time out against Iowa State. TCU creates the 62nd-most turnovers per game at 15.1.
Horned Frogs have a balanced attack
TCU is flying high heading into this game, Sportsbooks in nine straight games, and has entered the AP Top 25 for the first time since the second week of the season. It hasn’t been terribly tough sledding for the Horned Frogs as they have played the 91st-toughest strength of schedule out of 353 teams. They have a strong offense, averaging 80.5 points per game to rank 31st in the nation, and score at a rate of 82 ppg in away games for the 12th-best mark in college basketball.
They have had four different players score the team high in points this season and that speaks to the Horned Frogs’ depth and balance. They have 10 players averaging double-digit minutes per game with seven of those players averaging five or more ppg and five players scoring double-digit points per game. Additionally, they swing the ball around the court nicely, optimizing their open looks as they average 20.2 assists per game, the No. 3 average in the NCAA. On the defensive side of the ball, TCU surrenders 66.0 ppg, the 47th-fewest in the nation, and holds opponents to a 40.3 shooting percentage which is also the 47th-lowest percentage in college basketball.
Is an OVER in store for tonight’s game?
A battle in the Big 12 has two of the top 50 scoring teams in the nation and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 151 points. Both teams have been solid OVER bets recently, as TCU has gone OVER in five of its last six games with an average combined score of 153.5, while Kansas has gone OVER in four of its last six games, but with an average combined score of 143.83. Meanwhile, the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings between these two schools with an average combined score of 159. Lastly, Kansas has had issues turning the ball over recently and TCU creates plenty of turnovers, which will increase its point total and help hit the OVER.
My take on TCU vs Kansas
I like the Horned Frogs +6.5 in tonight’s game. The Jayhawks’ offensive attack is completely different without Udoka Azubuike in the lineup as Dedric Lawson has to play more conservatively to stay out of foul trouble due to the team’s lack of depth. With Azubuike out of the lineup, Kansas is averaging nearly 11 fewer points per game, and it is 3-2 SU but 1-4 ATS in his absence. Additionally, the Jayhawks are just 3-6 ATS in their home games this season. Meanwhile, TCU is on a nine-game winning streak and is 8-1 ATS over that span. I think its offense is just going to keep coming in tonight’s game and keep the score close.
