The No. 14 Villanova Wildcats tip off against the DePaul Blue Demons to conclude their two-game season series when they meet at Wintrust Arena. Villanova secured a 73-68 victory over DePaul in the first meeting in early January, its 17th straight triumph over the Blue Demons. The Wildcats are riding an eight-game winning streak and are a 7-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 147 points.
- Villanova is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
- DePaul is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog of 7.0 or less.
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of the last 15 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 150.47).
Villanova vs DePaul Game Center
Wildcats Finally Hitting Their Stride
All four of Villanova’s defeats this season came in non-conference play as it carried a 9-4 record into Big East play. However, since the schedule switched to more familiar foes, the Wildcats have rattled off seven straight wins – and eight in a row if you include their final non-conference test – with no game being settled by fewer than five points.
The offensive attack for the Wildcats is a pretty straightforward one: Shoot from beyond the arc. They rank sixth in the nation with 42.7 percent of their points coming from downtown – 63.7 percent of their 80 points against Seton Hall their last time out came from long range. Villanova averages the fourth-most three-point attempts per game and converts 36.8 percent of those shots (62nd).
On the defensive side of the ball, Villanova is surrendering an average of 66.7 points per game. It gives up 33.9 points per game from two-point range, ranking 113th, while allowing 21.9 ppg from beyond the arc (138th). Additionally, the Wildcats restrict opponents to just 31.6 rebounds per game, including just 19.9 defensive boards per game for the 10th-best mark in the country. But DePaul dominated the glass in the first meeting, grabbing 36 rebounds overall and 28 defensive boards.
Blue Demons Struggling Defensively
DePaul finds itself on its second losing slide of the season, having dropped its last two games, both coming on the road, and is hoping to receive a boost from its home fans. The Blue Demons previously had a three-game losing skid from mid-December into early January, with the final loss coming at the Finneran Pavilion vs Villanova. At Wintrust Arena this season, the Demons are 9-3 but have dropped three of their last four.
Unlike Villanova, DePaul doesn’t get many points from downtown, notching just 19.4 points per game from three-point range (282nd), but it ranks 17th with 42.5 ppg from two-point range. Additionally, the Blue Demons grab 9.5 offensive boards per game, the 89th-most in college basketball. They secured eight vs Villanova in their early January meeting.
Keeping points off the board has been a bit of an issue for the Blue Demons as they rank 189th in college basketball by yielding 72.7 points per game, though that figure drops to 68.8 at Wintrust Arena. A big issue heading into tonight’s contest against Villanova is that they allow an average of 27.2 points per game from three-point range, 40th-worst in the nation, and rank 270th by allowing opponents to shoot 36.2 percent from three-point land.
Which side of the Total should you be on?
Villanova and DePaul have been on both sides of the total over their last few games, going on streaks of OVERs followed by UNDERs. Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 147. DePaul has split its last six games with three going OVER and three going UNDER with an average combined score of 155 and only one game going UNDER 147 points.
Similarly, Villanova has split its last six with three going OVER and three going UNDER with an average combined score of 147.17 and two games going UNDER 147 points. When the Blue Demons visited the Wildcats to begin the month, they played to a combined score of 141. I think both teams will find success offensively and although I don’t like the total, I would be on the OVER.
My take on Villanova vs DePaul
I like Villanova to cover the 7-point spread. Although the Wildcats won by just five points when they hosted the Blue Demons earlier this month, Villanova didn’t play that well, while DePaul overachieved. The Blue Demons shot 52.8 percent from the floor, nearly six points higher than their season average, while also shooting 40 percent from downtown, eight points higher than their season average.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats shot just 41.8 percent from the floor, four points lower than their season average, and 34.4 percent from beyond the arc, two points below the season average. DePaul struggles defending the three-point line and I expect Villanova to do a better job out there in this game. The Wildcats have scored 80 or more points in each of their last four games, after topping that mark just five times in their previous 16 games.
