Led by early Heisman Trophy candidate Kyle Trask, the Gators (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) have scored 89 points in their first two contests. Florida opened as a 6-point favorite at Texas A&M (1-1, 0-2), which gave up three long touchdown passes in last week’s 52-24 loss at Alabama. Florida hasn’t visited College Sportsbook since 2012.
- Date/Time: October 10, 12 noon ET
- Stadium: Kyle Field
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Sportsbook Odds: Florida -6 | O/U 57.5 (Line History)
- Florida vs Texas A&M Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
Texas A&M has been a bad bet recently as a home underdog of a touchdown or less, going 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11. Meanwhile, the Gators have won seven of their last eight games as road chalk of 7 points or less, going 6-2 against the number.
Florida News & Notes
Dating back to last year, the Gators have gone OVER in four straight, have seen an average of 59.9 points scored in their last seven road games (6-1 to the OVER in those contests) and have eclipsed the total in seven of their last eight October contests.
Those trends aren’t showing any signs of slowing down, either. Quarterback Kyle Trask has thrown for 10 touchdowns in his first two games, tight end Kyle Pitts has caught six of those TD passes, and the Gators’ passing game ranks seventh in the nation, averaging 357 yards per game.
Florida hasn’t been able to run much time off the clock with the ground game, rushing for just 80 yards in last week’s 38-24 win over South Carolina. The Gators gained just 21 yards in the fourth quarter, allowing the Gamecocks to earn the backdoor cover as 14.5-point underdogs. South Carolina controlled the ball for more than 36 minutes in that contest.
Texas A&M News & Notes
Big plays killed the Aggies’ young secondary last week in their 52-24 loss to Alabama. Texas A&M allowed touchdown passes of 63, 78 and 87 yards, while another Crimson Tide TD came on a 47-yard interception return.
Freshman corner Jaylon Jones was targeted on two of Alabama’s touchdown passes, something Texas A&M needs to clean up with pass-happy Florida and Mississippi State on deck the next two weeks.
Offensively, quarterback Kellen Mond bounced back from a poor season-Sportsbook performance at Vanderbilt to throw for 318 yards and three touchdowns against the Tide. However, he also threw the pick-six with A&M down just 21-14 and driving in the second quarter, and the Aggies didn’t score again until midway through the fourth. Mond continues to struggle in his career against ranked opponents, having now lost 10 of his 12 starts.
Texas A&M is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games at College Sportsbook, but most of that damage has been done as a favorite. The Aggies are just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 as home dogs and have suffered SU losses in 25 of their last 30 in that situation.
Betting Pick: OVER 57.5
The Gators had just 18 first downs and 348 total yards last week, and they still hung 38 points on South Carolina. Florida should do at least that again vs this young Texas A&M secondary, while the Aggies can also put up points against a vulnerable Florida defense. I’ll keep betting Florida OVER until the oddsmakers catch up.
- Florida is 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 road games.
- Texas A&M is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games.
- Texas A&M is 0-10 SU in its last 10 games as an underdog.
