The MAC championship is up for grabs as the 10-2 Buffalo Bulls collide with the 7-5 Northern Illinois Huskies at Ford Field. This is the seventh appearance for Northern Illinois in the MAC championship game in the last nine years and the Huskies are a 4-point underdog to win the title for the first time since 2014, with the total Sportsbook at 49.5 points.
- Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.
- Northern Illinois is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games vs Buffalo (avg. winning margin: 25.9).
- The total has gone UNDER in nine of Northern Illinois’ last 12 games (avg. combined score: 40.83).
Northern Illinois vs Buffalo Game Center
Huskies limp into Championship game
Northern Illinois had its six-game winning streak snapped in Week 12 when it fell 13-7 to Miami (OH) and followed that defeat up with a 28-21 loss to Western Michigan last week. The defense has been the key to victory for the Huskies this year as it surrenders just 20.9 points per game, ranking in a tie with LSU for 24th-fewest in the nation, and leads the league with 46 sacks. They possess a mean defensive end in Sutton Smith, who has racked up the fourth-most sacks in college football at 13, including four in last week’s game vs Western Michigan. With a stout defensive line, opponents are having a hard time with their run attacks, as the Huskies are allowing just 107 rushing yards per game, which is 13th-best in college football.
The offense, though, has been a bit of a disaster, averaging just 19.9 points per game, which is the ninth-lowest in the NCAA, and producing the 10th-fewest passing yards per game at 141.3. Sophomore Marcus Childers is a dual-threat quarterback, throwing for over 200 yards in just one game this year, while rushing the ball double-digit times in 10 of 12 games, racking up a total of 438 yards and six touchdowns and throwing for 1,696 yards and 11 TDs through the air.
Bulls look to flex offensive muscles to claim the title
For the first time since the 2008 season, Buffalo is appearing in the MAC championship game and it is looking to move its record to 2-0 in title games. The Bulls put together a solid 10-2 record this season, but their two losses were beatdowns, falling 42-13 to Army and 52-17 to Ohio, both teams that rank in the top 10 for rushing offense in the nation. The Knights and Bobcats each ran for four touchdowns and the Bulls are allowing 170.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 75th in the nation.
However, their pass defense is the 13th-best in college football, limiting opponents to just 174.9 passing yards per game, which will make things tough for Childers. Buffalo rolled through the season with its explosive offense, averaging 35.3 points per game behind junior quarterback Tyree Jackson, who threw for 2,605 yards with 25 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions. The Michigan native also tucked the ball 41 times for 167 yards and added seven touchdowns. The Bulls also have a two running-back approach with a pair of freshmen in Kevin Marks and Jaret Patterson, who have combined for 1,607 yards and 23 touchdowns this season.
Should you be on the UNDER in this game?
Both teams have strong defensive tendencies and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 49.5 points. Northern Illinois has gone UNDER in nine of its 12 games this season with an average combined score of 40.83 and scores the ninth-fewest points per game in the nation at just 19.9. However, Buffalo scores the 26th-most points per game in college football at 35.3 and gains the 40th-most rushing yards per game at 200.3. That area of its attack may be shut down by the defensive front of the Huskies. They are allowing just 107 rushing yards per game, which is the 13th-fewest in the NCAA. I think these teams counter each other very well and I like the UNDER 49.5 points.
My take on Northern Illinois vs Buffalo
I like Buffalo to cover the 4-point spread. I do think this will be a close game and that the Huskies defensive line is going to cause a lot of issues for the two freshman backs for the Bulls. However, Northern Illinois is susceptible to the passing game and I think Tyree Jackson will be able to exploit that enough to rack up some points, while Northern Illinois scores the ninth-fewest points per game and it will fail to cover the 4 points. Lastly, the Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and were 9-3 ATS all season.
