With Justin Fields expected to be a high NFL draft pick this spring, a date with the Northwestern Wildcats might represent the closest thing to an NFL-caliber defense he will face this season. Fields leads the Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) into Saturday’s Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis against a defensively stout Wildcats team (6-1 SU, 5-1-1 ATS).
- Date/Time: December 19, 12 noon ET
- Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium
- TV Coverage: Fox
- Sportsbook Odds: Ohio State -19.5 | O/U 59.5 (Line History)
- Northwestern vs Ohio State Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
Ohio State opened at -19.5, but it didn’t take long for that line to jump to -20.5 or -21 depending on where you bet. The total has settled in at 58.5 in most places after Sportsbook at 59.5.
Northwestern News & Notes
The Wildcats rode their trademark suffocating defense to an impressive 2020 season that included a 17-7 victory over then-No. 10 Wisconsin and only one game in which they allowed more than 20 points. Northwestern surrendered just nine total offensive touchdowns in seven games, while its plus-4 turnover differential ranked inside the top 30 nationally.
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The offense, however, is a different story – and is a major reason why the Wildcats aren’t being given much of a chance. While they ranked 60th in rushing yards, their pass offense averaged just over 180 yards per game. Senior quarterback Peyton Ramsey led the team with 1,218 passing yards but had just nine touchdowns against six interceptions on the season.
Ohio State News & Notes
A handful of cancellations trimmed the Buckeyes’ regular-season schedule considerably – but they were still comfortably able to exert their dominance on the opposition. The Buckeyes scored at least 38 points in all five of their games while averaging 46.6 points per game overall (fourth-most in FBS). They also averaged more than 530 total yards per game.
At the center of it all is Fields, who is a Heisman Trophy long shot at +2500 but is still expected to be one of the first quarterbacks off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft. Fields threw for more than 1,400 yards with 15 touchdowns in his five-game stint, and added five scores on the ground. He had 194 passing yards and four touchdowns against Northwestern in their previous meeting in October 2019.
Betting Pick: UNDER 59.5 (-110)
We’re not quite sure how the Wildcats are going to do enough on offense to challenge the OVER here; that, combined with Northwestern’s elite defense, should keep this score well below the total.
- Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in its past 5 games.
- Ohio State is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 vs Big Ten foes.
- The UNDER is 6-1 in Northwestern’s last 7 games.
