Notre Dame and Iowa State both averaged more than 34 points per game, behind highly productive quarterbacks under center for both squads. With the total set at only 54.5 points, the OVER looks in play for what’s shaping up to be one of the more entertaining bowl games this season.
- Spread: Notre Dame -3.5
- Total: 54.5
- Date/Time: December 28, 12 noon ET
- Location: Orlando, Florida
- Stadium: Camping World Stadium
- TV Coverage: ABC
- Notre Dame vs Iowa State Matchup Report & Updated Odds
Camping World Bowl Odds Analysis
Notre Dame, despite having what’s regarded as a “disappointing” season, went 10-2 to win at least 10 games for the third straight season. Going against an even more disappointing Iowa State team, the Fighting Irish opened as 3.5-point favorites. The total seems a little low at 54.5 points, as the teams average a combined 71.2 points per game, but it’s brought down by the recent history of both teams playing to the UNDER a lot in December.
Notre Dame News & Notes
It’s not often you see a 10-2 team that’s a marquee program and went 12-1 the previous year get very little fanfare and end up in a mid-tier bowl game.
But that’s exactly where 15th-ranked Notre Dame finds itself, in part due to a lack of quality wins — the Fighting Irish only played four ranked teams this season, beating Virginia and Navy while losing to Georgia and getting walloped by Michigan.
Notre Dame possesses a dynamic passing combo with quarterback Ian Book and receiver Chase Claypool, who connected for 12 touchdowns on the season. The Irish averaged 37.1 points per game this season and reached double-digit wins for the fourth time in five years.
They find themselves as the favorites in this game, a situation where they have won 22 straight games, but the question is whether they can overcome their historically poor performances in playoff games — they’re 5-12 SU in their last 17 games in the playoffs.
Iowa State News & Notes
A Top 25-ranked team entering the season, the Cyclones were a bit of a disappointment, finishing just 7-5 on the year in a difficult Big 12 Conference — although three of their losses were by less than three points.
While the Irish can put up points, Iowa State should be able to hang right with them as the Cyclones averaged 34.1 points per game behind sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy and a prolific passing attack.
Purdy threw for 3,764 yards, the fourth-most passing yards in the country. His favorite target was receiver Deshaunte Jones, but the player to watch is tight end Charlie Kolar, who was a first-team All-Big 12 selection with 675 receiving yards (a school record for a tight end) along with a team-leading seven receiving touchdowns.
Iowa State is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games; the Cyclones are not entering this game with much momentum, and against one of the toughest opponents they’ve faced all season, they’ll need Purdy and company to be at their absolute best.
Betting Pick: OVER 54.5
There are three bowl games this year featuring two quarterbacks who logged at least 3,300 total yards and 35 total touchdowns. This is one of those games — I expect offense and the OVER to hit.
- Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as favorite.
- Iowa State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games as underdog.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Notre Dame’s last 9 December games.
