The day after Christmas sees the hobbled Horned Frogs lock up with the Cal Golden Bears at Chase Field, the home of the Arizona Diamondbacks. TCU comes into this game trotting out its third-string quarterback and without its No. 1 run option against the No. 24 scoring defense in the nation. Cal is a 1-point favorite and the total is 39. Action has been split on the spread while public bettors are on the UNDER in early betting.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of California’s last 8 games.
- TCU will start third-string QB Grayson Muehlstein.
- California has the No. 24 scoring defense in the FBS, No. 3 in Pac-12 (21.3 points per game).
TCU vs California Cheez-It Bowl Game Center
The Big Story is the Big Holes in the TCU Lineup
TCU will look to senior Grayson Muehlstein at quarterback in his final game. Muehlstein has just one start under his belt this season (and in his career), although it’s a pretty good one, a regular season-ending 31-24 win over Oklahoma State.
In a game where the Cowboys had a letdown after back-to-back high-intensity games vs Oklahoma and West Virginia, Muehlstein passed for 180 yards and two touchdowns on just 16-for-25 passing. Backup running back Jalen Reagor broke an 83-yard run for a TD while the Horned Frogs found a defensive touchdown for the difference.
Cal Defense Expected to be the Difference
Pundits are expecting the Golden Bears to show TCU a better defensive look than it’s seen all season playing in the Big 12 – in fact, Cal’s defense is ranked better than all Big 12 teams while finishing third in the stingy Pac-12.
Maybe the biggest accomplishment for this defense was holding No. 9 Washington to 10 points and No. 13 Washington State to 19 points in their head-to-head matchups. Washington State scored an average of 38.3 points a game this season.
Maybe even more impressive than Cal’s points against total is that it allowed just 350 scrimmage yards per game. That’s good for 20th-best in the country and tops in the Pac-12.
My Bet for This Game
I’ll be backing Cal in this one. I think that the offensive success that TCU had in the final week of the regular season was more a function of an uninspired Oklahoma State squad in the second half than anything else.
TCU is going to have a really tough time generating points in this game and Cal had the No. 109 scoring offense. If you’re less inclined to pick a side, UNDER 39 points may be the bet for you.
Whatever you decide to do in this one, good luck and I hope you have a winning bowl season!
