When Will Grier is playing well, so too are the West Virginia Mountaineers – but the TCU Horned Frogs found a way to overcome Grier’s heroics a season ago, and will be looking to do the same when the Big 12 rivals meet Saturday afternoon at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown. The Mountaineers are on a high after Grier’s two-point conversion run with 16 seconds remaining gave them a thrilling 42-41 win over Texas last weekend.
Grier finished with 346 passing yards and three touchdowns, improving to 7-0 this season and 12-2 in his collegiate career when throwing for 300-plus yards and three or more scores. But one of those two losses came at the hands of the Horned Frogs, who pulled out a 31-24 home victory over West Virginia for their fourth win in the past six head-to-head meetings. The teams have converted the UNDER in each of their previous four encounters. West Virginia is set as 12-point favorites at home, with the total set at 56.
- TCU is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.
- The UNDER is 5-2 in West Virginia’s last seven home games.
- The UNDER is 21-7 in the Horned Frogs’ past 28 conference games.
TCU vs West Virginia Game Center
TCU Can’t Cover a Conference Game
If there’s one team in the nation that could use a successful cover this weekend, it’s the Horned Frogs, who have been sensationally terrible against Big 12 opponents. TCU enters Morgantown this weekend having gone eight consecutive games without a cover vs a conference foe, with its last ATS win coming nearly a year ago in a 27-3 road triumph over Texas Tech.
Since that Nov. 18, 2017, victory, the Horned Frogs have gone 3-5 SU against the Big 12 despite being favored in six of those eight games. And TCU hasn’t even come close to covering in recent games, beating Kansas State 14-13 as a 10-point home fave, losing 27-26 to Kansas State at -13.5 and getting pummeled 52-27 at home by Oklahoma despite being just a 7.5-point underdog.
Given how dominant West Virginia has been, outside its loss at Iowa State, it’s hard to see the home team not covering in this one. Look for TCU’s conference cover woes to continue beyond this weekend.
Ready for a Red-Zone Rampage?
The Horned Frogs can trace their offensive struggles to one of the worst red-zone conversion rates in the country. TCU comes into the weekend having scored on just 74.1 percent of its trips inside the 20-yard line, the second-lowest success rate in the Big 12. Only 14 of their 27 drives inside the red zone have resulted in TDs, and they have three turnovers.
West Virginia, by comparison, has been a force in the red zone so far in 2018, ranking fourth in the conference in conversion rate at 87.1 percent with 22 touchdowns in 31 trips. Its 14 passing touchdowns inside the opponent’s 20 is tied with Oklahoma and Texas Tech for the most in the Big 12, one more significant feather in Grier’s already well-plumed cap.
Bettors can do plenty with this information. Taking the Mountaineers at a higher alternate spread will produce a better payout – or, if you prefer, you can opt for the OVER on West Virginia’s team total or the UNDER on the Horned Frogs’ team number based on their levels of red-zone proficiency.
My Pick: Take the Hosts at the Half
Grier and the Mountaineers have been an absolute wrecking ball in the first half this season, averaging the fifth-most points vs FBS opponents (24.6); that average jumps to 27.7 at Milan Puskar Stadium, the ninth-highest first-half home scoring average in the nation. Nearly 1,700 of Grier’s 2,618 passing yards and 17 of his 28 touchdowns have come in the Sportsbook half.
By comparison, TCU is averaging just 12 first-half points against Division I opponents on the season, ranking just inside the top 90 in the country; that mark dips to 11.2 on the road. If Grier can get to the 300/3 mark yet again – and there’s no reason why he can’t – it will likely be on the strength of a strong first-half showing that makes West Virginia a great 1H cover option here.
