The 12th-ranked USC Trojans welcome the UNLV Rebels at the historic LA Memorial Coliseum as they begin defense of their Pac-12 championship Saturday evening. USC opened as better than a four-touchdown favorite at 31.5, but that line has since moved to 26 as we lead up to Week 1 action. The points total opened at 60 but sat at 64.5 on Tuesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.
- USC is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as favorite.
- UNLV is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as underdog.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of USC’s last six games against the Mountain West.
Rebels vs Trojans Matchup Page
USC Cost Spread Bettors in 2017
USC was a soul-crushing 4-10 ATS on its way to claiming the Pac-12 title in 2017. So, a season that was great for Trojan supporters was less so for those supporters and bettors who looked to profit from Clay Helton’s team.
In fact, USC covered the spread just twice at home in 2017, in Week 2 vs Stanford and Week 10 vs Arizona. The Trojans have not been this big a favorite since 2015 vs Idaho, a game they won 59-9 at 44.5-point favorites.
Freshman Gives Trojans Fresh Start at QB
So what’s to make bettors believe that 2018 will be a more profitable year at USC? Sam Darnold is gone to the NFL, and they’ve also had to replace last year’s top back Ronald Jones II, and Deontay Burnett and Steven Mitchell Jr. from the receiving corps.
Five-star prospect and true freshman QB J.T. Daniels will get the start in Week 1 and comes in with plenty of promise. Daniels was the 2017-18 High School Athlete of the Year and National Football Player of the Year, throwing for 4,123 yards. He’s unproven, but the ceiling is high.
UNLV Has Plenty of Points to Work With
The Rebels have lost by more than 26 points just twice in the past two seasons and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog. UNLV is hungry this season with all eyes fixed on a bowl game, and while they’re unlikely to escape Los Angeles with a win in Week 1, they can start their season on the right foot with an inspired effort.
A huge reason for their ability to cover the spread as underdogs is their tenacity on defense and ability to cause turnovers. Their +7 turnover margin was 25th in the country last season and has become a hallmark of the team under Tony Sanchez. A new defensive coordinator, Tim Skipper, has been charged with making the rest of the defensive game passable for the Rebels.
QB Armani Rogers was the Mountain West Freshman of the Year in 2017 and enters 2018 looking to cement his name among the top pivots in the conference. He will be working out of the backfield with senior RB Lexington Thomas, who is just 1,250 yards shy of the all-time UNLV rushing yards record.
Totals Bettors Should Know…
This will be just the second-ever meeting of these schools, and the first since 1997, a game USC won 35-21.
As of Tuesday, the points total was set at 64.5 for this Week 1 battle. Looking at the data from the past two seasons, UNLV has seen the score go OVER the total in seven of its last nine games in the month of September, with an average combined score of 69.67. Conversely, the average combined score in USC’s last nine September games is 56.55.
The average combined score for the Rebels’ 12 games in 2017 was 60.58 with the OVER/UNDER going 5-7. The average combined score for the 14 games the Trojans played in 2017 was 58.71 with the OVER/UNDER going 7-7. However, for USC, only one of their four games with a closing total above 64 hit the OVER, a 49-35 win over Arizona.
