The 10-2 Cincinnati Bearcats make their way to Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium to collide with the 6-6 Virginia Tech Hokies as they meet in the Military Bowl. Cincinnati and Virginia Tech last faced off in the 2014 Military Bowl, with the Hokies earning a 33-17 triumph to begin a stretch of three straight bowl victories. However, it is the Bearcats who are 5.5-point favorites with the total Sportsbook at 54 points.
- Cincinnati allowed the seventh-fewest points per game in the nation this season (16.1).
- Virginia Tech is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.
- The total went UNDER in four of Cincinnati’s last six games (avg. combined score: 50).
Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech Game Center
Hokies defense will need to step up
Peanut butter and jelly, Virginia Tech and bowl games, the two just belong with each other. This is the 26th straight bowl game that Virginia Tech has been involved in and closing the season with back-to-back wins made this possible. The Hokies began the year with a 4-2 record but a four-game losing slide in midseason left their postseason hopes in flux, before they earned wins over Virginia and Marshall in the final two weeks to earn their spot in a bowl game.
The offense was fairly decent as they averaged 29.8 points per game to rank in a tie for 59th in the nation and were led by a couple of upperclassmen. Junior quarterback Ryan Willis had a career year, throwing for 2,497 yards with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also tucking the ball 101 times for 321 yards and another three TDs. Senior running back Steven Peoples had 149 rushing attempts for 760 yards while adding five majors. Willis may be without his top target, sophomore Damon Hazelton Jr., who had 45 catches for 745 yards and eight TDs. He is dealing with an unspecified injury and is questionable for this game.
The defense was a bit of an issue, though, as Virginia Tech gave up an average of 30.7 points per game, which was the 46th-most in college football, and yielded the 26th-most rush yards per game. Its defense suffered a big blow late in the season when junior defensive lineman Houshun Gaines tore his ACL against Pittsburgh. Gaines had 4.5 sacks and two forced fumbles in nine games prior to the injury.
Bearcats are dangerous on both sides of the ball
Cincinnati played to a 10-win season for the first time since 2012 and looks to earn 11 victories for the first time since 2009. It took until Week 8 for the Bearcats to suffer a loss when they fell 24-17 at Temple, while their only other defeat came at UCF in Week 12, losing 38-13. The Bearcats are seeking their first bowl victory since 2012 and are appearing in their first postseason game since 2015.
This season, Cincinnati was among the top schools offensively and defensively. The Bearcats racked up an average of 34.9 points per game to rank 25th in the nation, led by a couple of young players. Sophomore running back Michael Warren II toted the ball 224 times for 1,163 yards with 17 TDs. He missed the final game vs East Carolina but is probable for the Military Bowl. Meanwhile, freshman quarterback Desmond Ridder had a remarkable season, completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,359 yards with 19 touchdowns and just five interceptions, while also carrying the ball 149 times for 563 yards and another five TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Cincinnati was masterful, limiting opponents to just 16.1 points per game to rank seventh in the nation and only twice giving up 30 or more points. Most notable was a stifling run defense that held foes to an average of just 102.4 rushing yards per game. The Bearcats were led by senior defensive tackle Cortez Broughton, who had 45 tackles, including 5.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.
Is the UNDER the bet to make?
The Military Bowl has a top-ranked defense and a middle-of-the-road defense and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 54 points. Cincinnati went UNDER in four of its last six games with an average combined score of 50, while Virginia Tech went OVER in four of its last six games with an average combined score of 63.5.
The Bearcats averaged the 25th-most points per game this season and the Hokies gave up the 46th-most, however, Cincy allows the seventh-fewest ppg and Virginia Tech scores the 59th-most. I don’t like the total for this game either way, but if I had to make a bet, it would be on the OVER.
My take on Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech
I absolutely love Cincinnati to cover the 5.5-point spread. Too many things go in the favor of the Bearcats in this game – they have a better offense and a better defense and quite frankly the Hokies are a little lucky to be in a bowl game this season. Virginia Tech lost its best pass rusher late in the season as Houshun Gaines tore his ACL and it may be without Damon Hazelton Jr. (although I think he will suit up).
Cincy was 10-2 SU this season with an average winning margin of 26.8, only winning one game by less than six points. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech was 2-4 SU and ATS in its final six games of the year with an average losing margin of 23.5.
