A combined 1-7 the past four weeks. A combined 53 points the past three weeks. The only thing on the line at MetLife Stadium this Sunday when the New York Jets (-7.5, 3-6 ATS) host the Buffalo Bills (+7.5, 3-6 ATS) is staying out of the cellar of the AFC East. With both offenses sputtering badly, the total has been set at 36.5 points.
It was officially announced on Wednesday that QB Sam Darnold is OUT this game with a foot injury. Backup QB Josh McCown will get the start for the Jets behind center.
- The UNDER has hit in five of the last seven games between these teams.
- Buffalo is 3-8 SU and ATS in its last 11 divisional games.
- New York is 6-2 SU in its last eight home games against Buffalo.
MY PICK FOR SUNDAY: JETS -7.5
What does it say about a team when its opponent, which has lost three straight games, averaging 11 points per game over that stretch with eight total turnovers, is a favorite by more than a touchdown?
It says a lot, and none of it is good.
We knew the Buffalo Bills were going to be bad this year. In fact, we knew they would be really bad. But the level of ineptitude their offense has shown is alarming.
To call them a popgun offense would be a compliment: last in the NFL in passing yards per game, averaging fewer than 100 rushing yards per game and averaging just 10.7 points per game – last in the league by more than three points.
The struggle of Buffalo’s offense isn’t just bad by this season’s standards – it’s historically poor.
Nathan Peterman’s one-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter of Week 9’s 41-9 loss ended a streak of 38 straight Buffalo possessions without a touchdown, the longest such streak in the NFL since Arizona went 42 straight possessions without finding the end zone in 2012. Buffalo also has just eight offensive touchdowns through its first nine games, a feat that only 13 teams have managed since 1940.
The Bills’ offensive struggles can hardly be pinned on injuries: whether it was Josh Allen, Nathan Peterman or Derek Anderson under center, the offense has been bad. LeSean McCoy is averaging 3.1 yards per carry this year, including 24 carries for 24 yards his last three games. Their leading receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, is on pace for 536 receiving yards this season, a mark that 24 players have surpassed already.
In discussing why I’m betting on the Jets, I haven’t even mentioned the Jets. But I don’t need to. It’s not that I’m really betting ON the Jets – I’m betting AGAINST the Bills.
THE BUFFALO QB MERRY-GO-ROUND DOESN’T STOP
It may not be fair, but the trials of quarterback Nathan Peterman are the perfect microcosm for this lost Buffalo Bills season.
Thrust back under center as Derek Anderson sat out due to a concussion, Peterman was offered as a sacrifice to an elite Chicago Bears defense. He finally topped 100 passing yards in a game, completing 31 of 49 passes for 189 yards, but he tossed three more interceptions, including another pick-six, in a 41-9 blowout loss.
It is unknown whether Anderson will be cleared to start Week 10 against New York, or if Josh Allen can return after missing his third straight game with a sprained elbow. But if neither can play, it’s not a given Peterman, who has looked completely overmatched as an NFL quarterback in his brief career, will be the one under center.
Last week the Bills signed veteran Matt Barkley to back up Peterman against Chicago. Barkley has played in 12 career games, but none since 2016.
Regardless of who starts for Buffalo, nobody has yet to show any ability to make plays and put points on the board, so I would look long and hard at the UNDER for this game.
Josh McCown in at QB for the Jets
The third overall pick in this year’s draft, Jets quarterback Sam Darnold, is ruled out for this weekend's game with a foot injury. Stepping in his place will be Josh McCown, who was the starting QB for the Jets last season, but lost his position to the rookie this preseason.
Last year for the Jets, McCown threw for 18 TDs and 9 interceptions for a QB rating of 94.5 in 13 starts.
With Josh McCown in as starting QB with Sam Darnold ruled out, it’s hard to rely on the Jets offense to score points either, especially considering they only scored an average 11 points over the last 3 games. This game seem a good bet for the UNDER.
