The 8-6-1 Minnesota Vikings are in a win-and-you’re-in situation in Week 17 as they welcome the 11-4 Chicago Bears to U.S. Bank Stadium. Chicago isn’t mailing it in either, as a win and a Los Angeles Rams loss would secure the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. These NFC North rivals met in Week 11 at Soldier Field with the Bears earning a 25-20 victory, but it’s the Vikings who are 6-point favorites in Week 17 with the total Sportsbook at 41 points.
- Chicago is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine games.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of Minnesota’s last eight games.
- Chicago allows the third-fewest points per game in the league (18.2).
Vikings in a do-or-die situation
Minnesota is hoping to extend its two-game winning streak and earn a berth in the playoffs with the Philadelphia Eagles nipping at its heels. The Vikes have had quite a different look for the majority of this season compared to last, with a new quarterback at the helm and second-year running back Dalvin Cook on the shelf for most of the year. QB Kirk Cousins has performed well after signing his big contract in the offseason, averaging the 10th-most passing yards per game and throwing the eighth-most passing touchdowns on the season.
However, Minnesota’s run game was weakened by the injury to Cook as he dealt with hamstring issues for the majority of the season and the Vikings averaged just 95.3 rushing yards per game, the third-lowest mark in the NFL. At home, though, they rushed for 121.3 yards per game to rank 11th. Last season, Minnesota had a punishing defense that surrendered just 17.4 points per game and although it has been strong this year, it has taken a small step back, giving up an average of 21.1 points per game to rank seventh in the league. Most notably, the Vikes allow the third-fewest passing yards per game at 198.5, including a league-best 160.7 at home.
Bears gearing up for first playoff appearance since 2010
Chicago has had a fantastic season in its first year under head coach Matt Nagy, posting an 11-4 record and eyeing a potential first-round bye. If the Bears top the Vikings and the Rams falter against the 49ers, Chicago would earn the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. The Bears haven’t been in a wild-card playoff game since 1994 when they topped the Vikings (in Minnesota) 35-18. They have been on an absolute tear through the back half of the season, winning eight of their last nine games with an average winning margin of 11.36.
Although their offense isn’t as potent as the Chiefs, Saints or Rams, for instance, they are averaging 26.5 points per game, which ranks in a tie for eighth-best in the NFL. It is the Bears defense that is leading them to victory, allowing just 18.2 points per game to rank third in the league and averaging 3.1 sacks per game, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL. The struggling Vikings run game is going to have a hard time breaking through against a Chicago defense that gives up just 81.1 rushing yards per game, good for second in the NFL. That figure rises slightly in away games to 97.1 yards, but that’s still the fifth-best average on the road.
Is the UNDER the bet to make?
Chicago and Minnesota both have a strong emphasis on defense and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 41 points. Chicago has gone UNDER in four of its last five matches with an average combined score of 36.2, with only one game going OVER 41 points, and it is averaging just 20.6 ppg over that span. Meanwhile, Minnesota has gone UNDER in six of its last eight games with an average combined score of 40.63, with three games going OVER 41 points. Seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have gone UNDER with an average combined score of 39.
My take on Chicago vs Minnesota
I like Chicago +6 in this game. I find the spread a little hefty especially if the Bears are going to play all of their players to try to grab the No. 2 seed. Chicago beat Minnesota a few weeks ago by five points but now the oddsmakers are expecting an 11-point swing? I don’t buy it. These teams have been in some low-scoring affairs in their last 10 meetings which helps an underdog by that many points. Lastly, the Bears are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games, and they are 3-0 ATS in their last three vs the Vikings.
