The Philadelphia Eagles’ season is still alive following a huge upset against the Los Angeles Rams and they now sit just one game out of an NFC wild-card spot as they welcome the red-hot Houston Texans to Lincoln Financial Field. Houston, currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC, has won 10 of its last 11 games and opened the week as a 3.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 45 points.
- The OVER has hit in three of the last four matchups between these teams (avg. combined score: 49.0).
- Philadelphia is 9-2 SU and ATS in its last 11 home games against teams with winning records.
- Houston is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 early afternoon games.
THIS SUNDAY I’M BETTING HOUSTON -3.5
The Philadelphia Eagles were in disarray, staring at elimination from the 2018 playoff race, and to add insult to injury, franchise quarterback Carson Wentz went down with another injury. That left Super Bowl hero Nick Foles to try to keep their season alive as they faced the 11-2 Los Angeles Rams in Los Angeles as 13.5-point underdogs.
So obviously it makes sense that they would win, 30-23, showing a renewed energy and compete level against one of the league’s premier teams.
That’s the good news. The bad news: That win came over a Rams team that also looks to be trending in the wrong direction, having committed seven turnovers in its past two contests and looking dramatically different in three games since the bye from the juggernaut that started the season.
Now, the worse news: The Eagles are facing a Houston Texans team that has won 10 of its last 11 games, the only loss coming to an equally hot Indianapolis Colts squad, and is showing very few signs of slowing down.
In their Week 15 victory over the New York Jets last Saturday, Deshaun Watson and company again did not commit a turnover, the seventh time in their past eight games they have gone turnover-free. Houston has the fifth-fewest turnovers in the NFL, and not giving away any freebies allows the Texans to make the most out of their drives, while keeping their defense fresh.
And a fresh Houston defense is bad for opposing offenses — mainly quarterbacks. J.J. Watt is healthy and back to his Defensive Player of the Year form, currently tied for second in the NFL with 14.5 sacks. Jadeveon Clowney, the former first overall pick, wreaks havoc from the other edge, with eight sacks himself and 14 tackles for a loss.
The Eagles definitely rallied behind Foles in Week 15, but holding court against a Texans club playing peak football is going to be a tall task. With their pass rush working, their ball protection nearly flawless and a first-round bye theirs to lose, I think they will be just a little bit too much for the Eagles to overcome.
It will be a close contest, but look for the Texans to cover when it’s all said and done.
AN ALSHON JEFFERY SIGHTING AT LAST
It’s been a difficult season for Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, to put it mildly.
After missing the first three games of the season, Jeffery recorded 105 yards and a touchdown in his season debut … and then didn’t record another 100-yard receiving game in his next nine contests. He actually went six games without even topping 50 yards, but everything changed last Sunday night.
Recalling last year’s playoffs, when Jeffery and Foles showed great chemistry, the two connected for another big game last week. Jeffery caught all of his team-high eight targets for 160 yards, which is more than his previous four games combined.
Look for Jeffery to string together another big game against Houston, as he seems to be one of Foles’ favorite targets.
QUESTIONS IN THE HOUSTON BACKFIELD
The one question mark for the Texans heading into Week 16 is the status of starting running back Lamar Miller, who left the Week 15 win with an ankle injury on the first drive of the game.
Miller is listed as questionable for Sunday’s matchup. If he cannot go, look for either Alfred Blue or D’Onta Foreman to get the bulk of the carries, or look for quarterback Deshaun Watson to take to the air a little more than usual, likely targeting All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
