South by South Best: Texans Go For 10 Straight, Host Colts

Houston picked off Baker Mayfield three times and recovered a fumble in a 29-13 win to extend its streak to nine games. The Texans are now 9-3 straight up and 6-6 against the spread. They’ve covered five of their last six games.

Andrew Luck’s streak of eight straight games with three or more passing touchdowns came to a screeching halt as the Colts were shut out 6-0, held to 265 total yards and beaten by a Jaguars team playing its second-string quarterback and without Leonard Fournette. The loss drops Indianapolis to 6-6 overall and 5-6-1 against the spread. The Colts are 1-2-1 against the spread over the past four games.

The Texans opened as 3.5-point favorites before the line jumped to Houston -4.5. The Colts moneyline is +167 and the total opened at 51.5 before oddsmakers shaved it down to 49.5 Sunday night.

Colts vs Texans Game Center

WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 13

Colts – Indianapolis averaged 34.6 points per game during its five-game winning streak. Jacksonville had allowed 26.7 during a seven-game losing streak before Week 13’s shutout win. The NFL can be very quirky.

Colts starting center Ryan Kelly missed the game due to a sprained MCL and his replacement, Evan Boehm, left early with a neck injury. So, it’s possible third-string center Josh Andrews could start against the Texans. After Luck was only sacked once from Week 7 to Week 12, the Jaguars sacked him three times and held Indy’s rush offense to 41 yards. This weakness poses a problem against Houston’s front seven, which has averaged 3.7 sacks and allowed just 86.7 rush yards over its past three games.

Texans – For as much credit as Deshaun Watson and the Texans defense deserve, let’s not forget what Lamar Miller has meant to this team in recent weeks. Over the past three games, the Texans rank second in rush yards per game at 202.3 per contest with Miller averaging 117 rush yards during that stretch and 101 rush yards over his past six games.

Watson has completed 73.1 percent of his passes over the past five games. Opposing quarterbacks are completing nearly 72 percent of their passes against the Colts secondary – second-highest in the NFL.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: NO POINTS, NO PROBLEM

With Indy failing to score one point against the Jaguars, some regular Colts backers may be nervous to invest against the Texans. Here’s a reason to consider taking the points. This season, teams that have been shut out are 1-2 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in their next game. Since 2012, they are 15-19 SU and 21-12-2 ATS.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: TURNOVER BATTLE

Indianapolis remains +2 in turnover margin through 13 weeks but has coughed up the football five times over the past two games. The Texans just forced four Cleveland turnovers in their rout of the Browns. Over the past five years, teams that forced four or more turnovers in a game are 186-22-1 straight up and 175-32-2 against the spread.

HOUSTON, TEXAS FORECAST

Inside.

Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri missed his fourth field goal of the season at Jacksonville. He’s now 17 of 21 on field goals and 32 of 34 on extra points. Houston’s Ka’imi Fairbairn made all five of his field-goal tries and two extra-point attempts against the Browns. He’s now 24-for-29 and 27-for-28, respectively.

MY LEAN

Don’t be fooled by their performance at Jacksonville. The Colts aren’t regressing, but they also aren’t as lethal as the team that just won five consecutive games. Plus, don’t overlook the offensive line health issues as giving Luck time to throw and keeping him upright is critical.

On the flip side, the Texans are this good. Watson has only thrown two interceptions in his past six games and has a healthy lead running back, an elite receiver, a veteran receiver and reliable check-down options. On defense, the secondary has made more plays as of late, allowing the pass rush to get to the quarterback, which is why they’re averaging 3.7 sacks per game the past three weeks.

Give me the Texans to win and cover and the OVER.