Packers Laying 2 TDs for First Time in 8 Years

Green Bay (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) has covered five of its last seven as a favorite, while the visiting Jaguars (1-7, 3-5) are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine as road underdogs. The Packers have also had three extra days to prepare after beating up the 49ers last week on Thursday Night Football.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

It’s been a while since we saw the Packers as two-touchdown favorites. In fact, Green Bay hasn’t laid 14 points since 2012, when the Pack hosted – you guessed it – Jacksonville. Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games as double-digit chalk over the past five years, going 6-0 to the UNDER during that span.

Jacksonville News & Notes

Jake Luton’s NFL debut couldn’t have started better last week against Houston as the Oregon State product threw a 73-yard touchdown pass to DJ Chark in the Sportsbook minute, the longest completion by a Jags quarterback in two years. Luton finished the game with 304 yards and an interception, adding a 13-yard scoring run with 1:30 left that pulled Jacksonville within two points.

Although Luton threw an incomplete pass on the subsequent two-point conversion attempt, coach Doug Marrone told reporters he was pleased with what he saw from the rookie and didn’t guarantee Gardner Minshew will regain the starting QB job when he returns from a thumb injury. “There’s a lot of check marks,” Marrone told ESPN about Luton’s performance.

Jacksonville’s 412 total yards was the team’s third-highest production of the season and helped the Jags earn their first point spread cover since Week 2. Things could get more difficult for Luton this week, however, now that opposing coaches have some game film to work with. The Jags have also lost five straight road games by an average of 9.8 points and are 2-7 ATS in their last nine as road underdogs.

Green Bay News & Notes

There aren’t any freebies in the NFL, but the Packers enjoyed the next-best thing last week in San Francisco. Facing a 49ers team without its No. 1 quarterback, star tight end and several other key starters, Green Bay rolled out to a 34-3 lead and cruised to its sixth point spread cover in eight outings this season.

All of the Packers’ wins this year have come by at least seven points, and four of them came by 14 or more – comforting if you’re considering laying two touchdowns here with the Pack.

Green Bay should have more depth in the backfield this week after missing AJ Dillon and Jamaal Williams against San Francisco due to COVID-19 protocols, which forced star running back Aaron Jones to play through a calf injury.

Left tackle David Bakhtiari, widely considered one of the NFL’s top pass-blockers, could also return from a chest injury that has kept him sidelined for the past three contests. The Packers won’t have starting linebacker Krys Barnes, however, after the rookie tested positive for COVID-19 the day after the win over the Niners.

Betting Pick: Packers -14

Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in six of eight games this year, while the Jags have allowed 30-plus in six of seven. If those trends continue, Jacksonville needs at least 17 points to stay inside this number, something I don’t see the Jaguars doing with an unheralded rookie QB making his first career road start.