A pair of AFC South teams look to reverse their disappointing early-season starts and try to stay relevant in the division race, as the Indianapolis Colts (-3, 3-5 ATS) welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 3-5 ATS) to Lucas Oil Stadium. This contest, which will see the loser drop to the bottom of the division, has the total set at 47 points.
- The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after a bye week.
- The UNDER has hit in 11 of the last 14 matchups between these teams (avg. combined score: 39.93).
- Indianapolis is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against Jacksonville.
THIS SUNDAY I’M BETTING UNDER 47
While the Indianapolis Colts are all about high-scoring games, featuring a rolling offense and a less-than-stellar defense, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the polar opposite. Their defensive unit isn’t as fearsome as last season, but it is still among the league’s better groups. However, the offense has regressed in a big way, currently toiling as one of the NFL’s most toothless attacks.
Add in the classic tendency of divisional games (especially between these two teams) to be a little hard-nosed and lower-scoring, and it’s the perfect recipe for a low-scoring total.
Jacksonville has scored more than two touchdowns just once in its past six games, three times failing to even reach double digits. Quarterback Blake Bortles has been nothing short of brutal during that stretch, throwing just three touchdowns against five interceptions in the five losses and even getting benched in Week 7 in favor of Cody Kessler. Points have been hard to come by, and Bortles hasn’t shown much indication that he’s going to turn it around.
Indianapolis, meanwhile, has been rolling offensively, dropping 79 points in its past two games. Those matchups, though, were against the Bills and Raiders, whose defenses don’t match the quality of the Jaguars unit. In fact, Jacksonville will be the toughest defense the Colts have faced so far this season — I’m expecting their offensive output to be a little bit lower, while the Jags will continue to struggle to score, so my money is on the UNDER.
JAGS GETTING THEIR RUNNING BACK?
If there is any sense of hope and optimism for the Jacksonville Jaguars offense, it’s that the team expects star running back Leonard Fournette to return in Week 10.
Fournette, the fourth overall pick in last year’s draft, already has a lengthy injury history and has played in just two games this season due to a balky hamstring.
In his absence, T.J. Yeldon has yet to top 58 rushing yards in a single game, and Carlos Hyde, acquiring prior to the trade deadline, had six carries for 11 yards in his Jaguars debut against Philadelphia in Week 8.
With Fournette, who topped 1,000 rushing yards in just 13 games as a rookie in 2017, back in the mix, the Jaguars will hope to establish the power running game they utilized last season. That allows Jacksonville to control the clock and keep its defense fresh, and also allows Yeldon to be more of a change-of-pace back, which is a much better role for him than as a workhorse.
All of that adds up to taking the pressure off Bortles, who is much more effective running play-action passes and complementary throws, as opposed to being the focal point of the offense. And when Bortles can play with less pressure, the offense actually has a chance to be better than its current standing as the fourth-lowest scoring unit in the league.
COLTS’ RECIPE FOR SUCCESS ON THE GROUND
The Colts’ offensive output is impressive, but what truly stands out is how effectively the running game is dominating of late.
Indianapolis has topped 220 yards in each of its past two games, and although the Jaguars are one of the stingier scoring defenses in the NFL, they’ve actually been weak against the run, allowing 123.3 rushing yards per game, the ninth-most in the league.
With Marlon Mack leading the way with 5.8 yards per carry, the Colts’ game plan for Sunday should not focus on being carried by franchise quarterback Andrew Luck, rather it should be to ground and pound their way to a key divisional victory.
