A clash between the NFL’s top offense and best defense awaits in Week 5 when the Jacksonville Jaguars invade Arrowhead Stadium for a showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs. Sportsbooks opened the Chiefs as 3-point home favorites with a total of 48.5.
- The Jaguars are 0-3 SU in their last three games vs the Chiefs (avg. losing margin: 17.67).
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chiefs’ last six games at home (avg. combined score: 43.33).
- The Chiefs are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games at home.
Jaguars’ strong defense looking to keep Patrick Mahomes in check
Jacksonville’s defensive unit is ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14 points per game), yards allowed (259.2 yards per game) and passing defense (164.2). The Jags have allowed a league-low three touchdown passes and have surrendered just seven pass plays of 20 yards or more – second in the league to Washington.
The Jags haven’t been getting the job done against the Chiefs, however, as Jacksonville is 0-3 SU in its past three meetings with Kansas City with an average losing margin of 17.7 points. The Jags are also 1-3 ATS in their past four matchups vs K.C. Quarterback Blake Bortles has rotated good and bad games this year but should find success against a Kansas City defense that’s struggled in most aspects in 2018.
Can the Chiefs stay undefeated?
Only the Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams remain as undefeated clubs in the NFL at 4-0, yet the Chiefs are in for their toughest test yet against the Jags. The Jaguars will be without the injured Leonard Fournette, but backup running back T.J. Yeldon has fared well in his place so far.
With 14 touchdowns and zero picks, Mahomes has established himself as the undisputed MVP favorite thanks to four near-perfect games so far. Still, despite his success, Kansas City is only winning by an average of 7.5 points per game. The good news for Chiefs bettors is K.C. is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five home games and 4-0 SU and ATS in its previous four in the early afternoon.
My pick: take the Jaguars on the road
It’s going to be hard for bettors to fade the red-hot Chiefs, and while I love watching Mahomes, I don’t expect him to keep up his fantastic pace against the brutal Jaguars defense. The Chiefs defense hemorrhages points, and Kansas City might be looking ahead to next week’s matchup with the New England Patriots. Take Bortles and the Jaguars as road dogs.
