Matthew Stafford’s two interceptions late in the fourth quarter proved to be the difference in a Chase Daniel-led Bears win Thanksgiving afternoon. The 23-16 loss dropped the Lions to 4-7 overall and 6-5 against the spread. Detroit has failed to cover in four of its past five games.
When we last saw the Rams, they scored 54 points, allowed 51 and pushed the -3-point home spread. Los Angeles may lead the NFC West at 10-1, but the Rams are a cringe-worthy 4-6-1 against the spread this season as their defensive liabilities allow the opposition to keep things tight.
The Rams opened as 7-point road favorites, but the line jumped to -9.5 before the end of Sunday Night Football and is now -10. Detroit’s moneyline is +336 and the total is 54.5.
It’s the first time the Lions have been home dogs of 9.5 or more points since 2009, which happens to be Stafford’s rookie season. Detroit is 1-9 straight up and 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games when a home dog of 9.5 or more points. This is the first time the Rams have been favored on the road by 9.5 points or more since 2003. Jared Goff was nine.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Lions’ last five games (avg. combined score: 41.8).
- The Lions are 6-1 SU in their last seven games when hosting a West Coast team.
- The Rams are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a bye.
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 12
Lions – What did we learn? It’s hard to win without Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson. To date, Johnson accounts for 57 percent of the Lions’ rush offense. Tate, who has been with the Eagles the past four games, still accounts for 18 percent of the Lions’ pass offense. Jones was placed on season-ending injured reserve late Monday and accounts for 17.8 percent. That’s a lot of missing offense needed to keep pace with the uptempo Rams.
Since Tate was traded, Stafford’s averaged 232 pass yards per game while throwing three touchdowns and four interceptions. He had thrown just two interceptions in his previous six games combined before the trade.
While their rush defense has improved since “Snacks” Harrison came over from the Giants, Detroit’s pass defense has allowed 302 pass yards per game and opposing offenses have converted nearly 78 percent of their red-zone trips against the Lions in the past three weeks.
Rams – Los Angeles is 7-1 over its past eight games, but the average margin of victory in those seven wins is just 7.3 points and that’s with a 39-10 blowout win over the 49ers. In other words, the Rams are winning, but it’s not always pretty like, say, the Saints.
Los Angeles is 2-3 against the spread on the road this season with the average spread Los Angeles -6.3.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: HEAVY HOME DOGS
Over the last five years, home dogs of 9.5 or more points are 5-25 straight up and 12-28 against the spread.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: FIFTY-BURGER ENCORE
The Rams’ 54-point performance against the Chiefs was the first time this heralded offense scored more than 40 points this season. Since 2014, teams that dropped a 50-burger on an opponent are 12-4 straight up and 10-5-1 against the spread in their next game (Home+Away). Since 2015, teams that drop 50 or more points are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS if their next game was away.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN FORECAST
Inside.
Lions kicker Matt Prater hasn’t missed a kick since early October and is 20-for-23 on field goals and 22 of 22 on extra points. The Rams’ Greg Zuerlein is 16-for-18 on field goals and 20 of 21 on extra points, including 6-for-7 in the shootout win over the Chiefs.
MY LEAN
With Jones out for the season, if Kerryon Johnson is also inactive, there’s little chance the Lions keep pace with the Rams. Detroit benefited from a more balanced offense earlier in the season when Johnson broke out, which took pressure off Stafford to make every play with his arm. With Johnson banged up, the offensive scheme has reverted back to this unsightly norm and without the services of Tate as a reliable possession receiver.
My Monday lean is a big day for Jared Goff, his receivers and Todd Gurley in the passing game with the Rams to cover coming out of the BYE.
