Although the New England Patriots won’t reach 12 wins for the first time since 2009, they still have something to play for in Week 17 when they host the New York Jets. The Pats clinched their 10th straight AFC East title despite falling short of the dozen and aim for a first-round bye with a win over New York. They can clinch the 1 seed if both the Chiefs and Chargers lose in the final week. The Jets will look to play spoiler but they’ve lost seven straight games when traveling to Foxborough with an average losing margin of 11.7 points per game.
The Patriots opened as 13-point favorites with a total of 47.5.
- The Jets are 1-9 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games at New England.
- The Patriots are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in 7 home games this season.
- The UNDER has hit in 5 of the Patriots’ 7 home games this season.
Patriots at Home Seems Like a Done Deal
At 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in seven home games this season, the Patriots are like clockwork in Massachusetts and with the potential to get a 1 seed in the playoffs, you know Bill Belichick won’t hold anything back. The Pats hosted the Jets in Week 17 last year and proceeded to throttle them by 20 points, limiting New York to only six points.
The Pats are an astounding 15-2 SU and 11-6 ATS in their last 17 home games dating back to the start of last season but it’s their most recent game at Gillette Stadium that may have bettors leery of taking them on the spread as a double-digit favorite. As 13.5-point favorites, they allowed a backdoor cover by the Bills and cost bettors banking on a Buffalo butt-kicking. That being said, they have been a winning bet in that position as they’re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Foxborough as double-digit faves with an average winning margin of 17.8 points per game.
I’ve gone back and forth on taking the Patriots to cover the spread but with it being in New England and the fact that the Pats already beat this team by 14 when they played at MetLife Stadium, give me the Pats.
Jets Have Come Up Short In This Scenario
The Jets may have a bright future with Sam Darnold at quarterback, plenty of cap space and a high draft pick coming to them in June but for now, they’re awful. The defense is allowing 26.9 points per game (ranked 28th), 255 yards passing per game (ranked 25th) and 126 rushing yards per game (ranked 26th).
New York’s betting record does not inspire confidence for taking them with the moneyline in this circumstance as the J-E-T-S are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games as double-digit underdogs and 1-9 SU in their last 10 games at Gillette Stadium with an average losing margin of 11.7 points per game. If spread bettors are willing to take the risk, it’s worth noting they’ve covered the spread in five of their last 10 games when tabbed as a double-digit dog.
I can’t see the Jets covering this game as I think the team has quit on its coach and is already thinking of next season. The Jets were in a prime spot to win outright vs the Packers this past Sunday but proceeded to cough up a 15-point fourth-quarter lead. Considering the Pack were winless on the road prior to that game, that pretty much sums up the Jets this season.
Games at Gillette Stadium leading to UNDERs
The total opened at 48 (since dropped to 47.5) and trends are pointing to an UNDER in this AFC East showdown. The UNDER has hit in five of the Patriots’ seven home games this season with an average combined score of 47.7 points per game, which makes for a razor-thin margin. The Pats offense has not looked right this season so it may explain why the UNDER has also hit in seven of their last eight games with an average combined score of 40.8 points per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. I like the Patriots to win this game and come close to covering but I feel like once the Patriots are up by a winning margin, they may take their foot off the gas and allow the Jets to score even though New England knows it already won the game. At 47.5 points, I think this is the sweet spot but if it drops closer to 45, hammer the Patriots spread instead.
