What a difference a week makes. After shellacking Minnesota on the road, Buffalo travelled to Green Bay and was promptly shut out 22-0. The Bills return home for Week 5, where they find themselves as 3-point underdogs against the surprising Tennessee Titans. The total for this contest opened at 39 points.
- The OVER has hit in five of Buffalo’s last seven home games against Tennessee.
- The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
- The Bills are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six home games vs teams with winning records.
WHY MY PICK FOR SUNDAY IS UNDER 39 POINTS
Simply put, neither of these offenses is very explosive.
The Titans, while tied for the AFC South lead at 3-1, are one of those throwback-style offenses, where they look to run the ball first, and then run the ball some more, before they go to the air. They have the seventh-fewest passing yards per game, the seventh-fewest total yards per game and are one of five teams that average fewer than 20 points per game.
Combine that with one of the stronger defensive units in the league (sixth-fewest points allowed) and it is clear that the Titans are a team that likes to control the clock and avoid getting into offensive shootouts.
Buffalo, however, is not very good but also an enigma. The Bills have been blown out in three games but also blew out one of the league’s premier teams. They have the league’s second-least potent offense and in their three losses have committed at least two turnovers in each game. A matchup with the Titans defense is a bad one for Buffalo; they will struggle to put up points, and Tennessee’s tendency to control the clock and limit turnovers will mean Buffalo does not get many short fields.
I’d expect to see a lot of punts, not a lot of points and a total score that falls short of 39 points.
TITANS OFFENSE SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFE
The Titans’ calling card is running: they are second in the NFL in rushing attempts with 120 carries. But following Week 4, there might be some hope that the passing attack may be starting to catch up.
Against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota threw for 344 yards. That was his highest single-game total since Week 9 of the 2015 season, and only his second 300-yard passing game in his last 12 contests.
It wasn’t just Mariota’s performance that was encouraging, but also the play of his top wide receiver, Corey Davis. The fifth overall pick last year finally had the breakout game everyone was waiting for, catching nine of 15 targets for 161 yards and a touchdown. It was Davis’ first 100-yard game of his career, and his combination of size and speed makes him an intriguing player to watch.
We need to see a little more consistency out of Mariota and the Tennessee passing game before we can believe it, but a sustained passing attack would go a long way to making the Titans more consistent favorites, and also threats to hit the OVER with more regularity.
BUFFALO’S WIN WAS A Sportsbook?
Buffalo rookie QB Josh Allen made his first NFL start in Week 3, and it was quite the impression, shocking the football world with a lopsided road win against Minnesota.
Week 4 was a sobering crash back to reality, as Allen completed less than 50 percent of his passes, was sacked seven times and had three turnovers en route to a 22-0 shutout loss.
There’s going to be some ups and downs with a rookie quarterback, but looking at the Bills roster, one thing stands out: they lack playmakers in a big way. The running game has not been contributing either, resulting in one of the NFL’s most toothless offensive units.
In their win against Minnesota, the Bills forced three early turnovers and converted good field position into points. In their three losses, they didn’t have as much good fortune with turnovers. As turnovers are unpredictable and very much a result of good luck, counting on the Bills to mount any type of consistent offense is an equally unpredictable endeavor. I expect most Sundays to look like Weeks 1 and 4, and not so much like the team that won in Week 3.
