December 27, 2006 – the Atlanta Thrashers defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-2. That was the last time the Jets/Thrashers won in the Steel City, a stretch of 17 losses as Paul Maurice’s troops will try to shake that terrible trend tonight. The Jets are having a great season but nobody, except the herculean Lightning, has been better than the Pens since December 1. Pittsburgh is a -130 moneyline favorite while the Jets can be had for the price of +110. The total opened at 6.5.
- Pittsburgh is 12-3-1 since December 1.
- The Jets have lost 17 consecutive games in Pittsburgh dating back to 2006.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Jets’ last five games vs the Penguins (avg. combined score: 7.2).
What A Turnaround for the Penguins
At the end of November, Pittsburgh was out of a playoff spot and the pressure was on. Veteran general manager Jim Rutherford calmly shipped out Daniel Sprong and Carl Hagelin, shaking up the dressing room and putting everyone on notice. Since then, the Penguins are on a run that more closely resembles what we’ve come to expect from this franchise.
After a phenomenal December, the Penguins sit three points out of second place in the conference and welcome a team that they’ve traditionally handled quite well at home. During the 17-game home win streak vs the Jets, Pittsburgh is winning by an average margin of 2.5 goals.
Sidney Crosby has 22 points in 16 games since the beginning of December while Matt Murray has been outstanding in six games since returning from injury. Murray’s numbers are eye-popping during this Pens’ hot stretch – he’s sporting a .955 save percentage and 1.48 GAA and is expected to start tonight.
Pittsburgh has the league’s No. 2 power play and No. 2 penalty kill during this run.
Cool Your Jets
Winnipeg has the best winning percentage in the Western Conference and sits two points behind the Flames for first overall with three games in hand. Considering the same time frame we just used to evaluate the Penguins, Winnipeg is 11-4-0 in 15 games since December 1 – that’s the fourth-best record in the league for this stretch.
The Jets have the second-best power play in the league but it is just seventh overall since December 1. Most notably, the Winnipeg PK is ranked 21st for the same time period. In a game where special teams look to tell the story, Winnipeg’s power play as the visitor this season is just over 20 percent, well below their season-long overall number of 28.1 percent.
My Best Bet for Tonight
This has all the makings of a great game and I am going to side with the home team getting the home juice. Pittsburgh at -130 on the moneyline feels like the right play, given the size of this game and the test that Mike Sullivan’s team will be up for tonight with a top team coming to town.
For its part, Winnipeg has traditionally struggled in Pittsburgh and even when you look at the more recent head-to-head matchup, the Jets are just 2-5-3 in their last 10 games against the Pens, regardless of location.
