Boxing: Jermell Charlo vs Tony Harrison II Odds & Prediction

The WBC junior middleweight belt is up for grabs on Saturday, December 21 at the Toyota Arena in California. Jermell “Iron Man” Charlo is looking for revenge and to recapture his title against Tony “Super Bad” Harrison, the man who took it from him a year ago. Despite earning the victory in the first fight, the champ, Harrison, is a +200 underdog with the challenger, Charlo, coming back at -260.

Jermell Charlo vs Tony Harrison Odds Analysis

The odds for this rematch are vastly different from the first time these two competitors squared off last December. In that bout, Charlo was a -1000 favorite with Harrison coming back at +550. That’s reminiscent of the Anthony Joshua vs Andy Ruiz matches, with AJ a -3500 favorite to Ruiz’s odds of +1200 in the first bout, while the rematch had Ruiz at +175 and Joshua at -205.

Charlo vs Harrison II

Last year’s defeat was the first in Iron Man’s 33-fight career and ended his reign as the WBC junior middleweight champ after three defenses. As for Super Bad, he earned the first world title of his 30-fight career, after coming up short in his first attempt at a world championship in 2017 when he suffered a ninth-round knockout loss to Jarrett Hurd for the IBF junior middleweight strap.

In the first fight, Charlo was the aggressor for the majority of the bout, backing Harrison up in nearly every round so that he could set up a series of power punches. Although that was his plan, he allowed Harrison to duck out to the right over and over again, only circling to his left hoping to find spots where Harrison would step into the right hook. Iron Man likely would have had more success had he cut the ring down, stepping to the right as well as the left, and cornering Harrison more.

It was a somewhat difficult fight to judge as Charlo would mostly throw power hooks and uppercuts that landed at a lower percentage than Harrison’s jabs and straights, which he stuck to for the majority of the bout. Super Bad kept his hands high and had a slight hand speed advantage, allowing him to land accurate head shots when Charlo would throw his hooks. However, because of his high hands, he was susceptible to body shots and was hurt there a couple of times.

Rather than leading with hooks, I expect Charlo to use his jab a lot more in the rematch, which should enable him to back Harrison up more effectively and set up his power punches better. As for Harrison, he will need to employ a game plan similar to the first fight: tight defense and counter straights, throwing a flurry of punches periodically.

Prediction: Jermell Charlo (-260) via decision or knockout in Rounds 10-12 (TBD)

Odds as of December 12 at Sportsbook